A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[armaghniac]

SF are the largest party on this presently, a UI will see them have their chance at power and the people will then judge them on it.

SF are are likely to get into power before a UI as after it. They have 27% of the vote in the 6 counties and around that in polls in the 26 counties. A UI will not give them power.
The thing that nationalists have to fear is that SF will get into power before a UI and kibosh the whole thing.

[trailer]

Question. Can you be considered a Nationalist or Republican if you need to be convinced of a United Ireland?

[lfdown2]

Interesting article from the Newsletter;

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/philip-smith-new-research-shows-neithers-problem-union-unionists-3111473

In reality there is a growing cohort who would prefer an independent northern Ireland, as that is not in play it will be a case of the less worse option.

[Angelo]

For those who seem to believe that the Republic is a failed state and is any way comparable to what they have in NI

A few simple facts

NI currently has a population 36% of the Republics

1.1920 2 counties Down and Antrim had 80% of the total economic output of the Island, today the total NI economic output is 8% of this islands output.

If NI was in any fit state economically, it would be contributing a third or more.

2.The Size of the Republics economy is €400bn odd, the size of NI's is £40bn odd

NI's economy should be treble what it is, £120bn odd

3.Exports

ROI total exports €160bn odd,2020 up 8% on 2019

NI total exports £7bn odd

the reality is that the increase in the Republic exports between 2019 and 2020 is greater than NI total exports tells its own story.

4.Cross Border Exports by value

34% NI exports to the Republic

1% ROI exports to NI


I could go on and on with examples as regards the disparity in wages, educational attainment, quality of life, life expectancy, even social welfare benefits which seems to a preoccupation of some from NI and the likes of gay rights and abortion rights but I wont.

I'm sure the sainted northern NHS will be thrown at me as an example of where NI is better the Republic, but when you look at the thousands on waiting lists up there, it kinda dilutes that claim too.

The reality is that the Republic is a free open and tolerant European country, hardly the failed state that some Northerners on here make it out to be, possibly to make themselves feel better.

Yet why have they a two tier health service with the public health system seeing 600-700 people lying on hospital trolleys every year, working class people being priced out healthcare?

Why have you such issues with homelessness and where being able to afford a home is a pipedream for most of the generation in their 20s?

You try and spin it anyway you want, the free state is a failed statelet and time and time again, the vested interests are looked after at the cost of the people.

Look at the ever widening welath inequality in the 26 that grows bigger and bigger every year. Look at how the FS government consistently pilfer off state resources and services to the private sector so their billionaire pals can gouge the working man for a few quid more to vital services and resources. They can vote to not pay their student nurses but are happy to overpay a billionaire €10m and refuse to look for it back.

The Free State is rotten and mired in corruption.

you are sounding more and more like Jim Alister with every passing comment son.

200,000 on NHS waiting lists in NI

10,000 Families Homeless in NI

And? Who is saying the O6 is a success?

Where have I defended the O6? I've repeatedly said both states are failed states. What part of that statement I've repeated multiple times are you failing to grasp?

The Republic is not a failed state by any metric you wish to employ,bitterness blinds you to that

Your probably one of those work shy handout out addicted Shinner fucks who's pining for a 32 socialist state which means the color of your handout money will change and life will continue on,except this time round you'll be leeching off the Irish state

I've news for you pal

There won't ever be a socialist state here

All you boys will be getting off yer holes getting jobs and paying tax if there's ever a UI

That's just nonsense.

Homelessness, a basket case public health service, an unaffordable private health sector, an out of control residential rental market being created by vulture funds, state resources and services consistently being hawked off to the private sector, a generation coming forward hawked with seismic national debt after the state bailed out billionaire bondholders and made their citizens pay for it, a generation where owning your own house will now be a pipe dream.

And you absurdly claim, you are not a failed state. The Free State is merely a means to service domestic and non-domestic billionaires, by any metric it is rotten.

I don't think people have an issue with paying tax. I think the fundamental concerns with the free state is that the money taxpayers contribute goes into an offertory box for Larry Goodman and Denis O'Brien.

[Angelo]

SF are the largest party on this presently, a UI will see them have their chance at power and the people will then judge them on it.

SF are are likely to get into power before a UI as after it. They have 27% of the vote in the 6 counties and around that in polls in the 26 counties. A UI will not give them power.
The thing that nationalists have to fear is that SF will get into power before a UI and kibosh the whole thing.

There is nothing to kibosh as long as FFG are there. They do not want this vote, they are very threatened on their clutch of power being taken away.

[yellowcard]

The problem those seeking a UI has, is not solely persuading unionists or the undecided. Many nationalists, and I would be one, need to be convinced that our standard of living will not be impaired. I cannot see wages increasing adequately in a UI to cover the increase in living costs. Furthermore having reached a certain age I am very conscious that I will be relying on the health service more and more. When I was younger I would have risked these things. Much as I want to see a UI, I have not seen detail on these issues other than claim and counter claim.

I don't think you can necessarily label yourself a nationalist then but it is in this middle ground sector like yourself on which a poll will be won and lost. It is up to the nationalist argument to convince such middle ground voters.

Any such transition or change in living standards would not simply take place overnight, that is simply not how economics work. Market forces would result in a gradual harmonisation between the two states whereby cost of living in the north would likely rise as property prices converged to an equilibrium and wages would correspondingly rise as FDI was introduced into the north to avail of an initial lower cost base. The bloated civil service in NI would need to reform which would be no harm anyway. The pro unity side would undoubtedly need to consider ways of plugging the finance gap whilst the new structures are given time to bed in. That is where they should be lobbying EU/US for some element of phased financial support. The German model whilst different does present some form of template. 

[trailer]

The problem those seeking a UI has, is not solely persuading unionists or the undecided. Many nationalists, and I would be one, need to be convinced that our standard of living will not be impaired. I cannot see wages increasing adequately in a UI to cover the increase in living costs. Furthermore having reached a certain age I am very conscious that I will be relying on the health service more and more. When I was younger I would have risked these things. Much as I want to see a UI, I have not seen detail on these issues other than claim and counter claim.

I don't think you can necessarily label yourself a nationalist then but it is in this middle ground sector like yourself on which a poll will be won and lost. It is up to the nationalist argument to convince such middle ground voters.

Any such transition or change in living standards would not simply take place overnight, that is simply not how economics work. Market forces would result in a gradual harmonisation between the two states whereby cost of living in the north would likely rise as property prices converged to an equilibrium and wages would correspondingly rise as FDI was introduced into the north to avail of an initial lower cost base. The bloated civil service in NI would need to reform which would be no harm anyway. The pro unity side would undoubtedly need to consider ways of plugging the finance gap whilst the new structures are given time to bed in. That is where they should be lobbying EU/US for some element of phased financial support. The German model whilst different does present some form of template.

I agree with pretty much all of this. Don't forget Britain will have financial obligations as well.

[weareros]

So you disagree you have homeless crisis?

I never disagreed. One homeless person is one too many. But in a border poll, I'd spell out that UK's rate is over twice that of Ireland. That's how this vote will work, and it's senseless bashing Ireland for areas where UK is worse.

You reject the assertion that you have a two tier health system, where people are priced out of healthcare because of how much they earn and afford to pay?

We spend more on health per head of population than UK. The waste in the system needs to be fixed. The North had a distinct advantage over South here, but both are a mess right now. This will still be one of UK's main selling points.

You reject the corruption labels? Haughey, Bertie, Lowry, Lawlor, Michael Martin, Burke, Flynn etc etc? The tribunals, the cosy relationships with bakers, billionaires and property developers?

I never said we did not have a bunch of gangsters, most of which were in Fianna Fail. But a lot of politicians have done good things that have led to huge progress. Joining the EEC under a FG/Labour coalition was one, at a time when both Sinn Fein and DUP campaigned against joining EEC. Could you imagine how backward we'd be if they had any clout back then? I gave Haughey's goverment credit for having the foresight to create our financial services centre back in 1980s, which put us in a good position with Brexit to take jobs from London. I gave the FG/Lab/Democratic Left government for proposing the new corporate tax rate, eventually made law by Charlie McCreevey - that helped bring some of the top tech and pharma brands into Ireland.

This is the sort of deluded, entitled attitude that you free staters have. We aren't voting for the north to go down and join the southern establishment. We are voting for a new Ireland, the end of partition, the end of two rotten states.

The end result will hopefully that the top rotten state starts to have similar economic output to the bottom rotten state.

Unionist bigotry and southern greed and corruption will hopefully become a thing of the past. That bit seems to worry the likes of you, FF, FG, RTE, Denis O'Brien, Larry Goodman etc.

Don't disagree. But there's plenty of Catholic bigots North & South too. There was  time a Catholic girl would be tarred and feathered for dating the wrong type. Hopefully male, Catholic chauvinism that liked to control women and their bodies will be a thing of the past too.

In your post you are praising Haughey, a gangster who told people to tighten their belts as we was having million pound personal loans written off by his friends in high places. That just sums up the free state, an elitist ruling class who have managed to make society a two tier states, the have and have nots. You have foisted huge national debt on the generations to come, your youth cannot even afford to buy a home anymore, homelessness levels are through the roof, the health service is a disgrace and unless you can afford private healthcare you might as well forget about it.

In a border poll I would look at national dept per GDP and Ireland's is a lot lower than UK. Ireland's stands at 59% while UK is at 85%. I'm sure Covid borrowing will skew those numbers when 2020 is looked at. But I'd still imagine Ireland to be in a better position than UK.

Clearly you are the type of conscienceless chap who votes FFG from the shire of Roscommon.

Love our local Sinn Fein councillor, actually. Has done many a favour

[Rossfan]

Assuming the 1st poll takes place around 2028 will the 6 Cos still be a basket case economy?
Do people really expect the 2.5m+ people who will be working in the 26 to pick up a tab of maybe €4k extra tax per annum to keep the basket cases in the style they've become accustomed to?
The large portion of that workforce under 35 won't remember the pre GFA days and many more of them will be foreigners or children of foreigners and won't give 2 hoots about re unifying Ireland.
Firstly pro UI people will have to convince the ever growing non aligned/other people in the 6.
Can't see a large cohort of SFers doing that with their antics.

[Applesisapples]

The problem those seeking a UI has, is not solely persuading unionists or the undecided. Many nationalists, and I would be one, need to be convinced that our standard of living will not be impaired. I cannot see wages increasing adequately in a UI to cover the increase in living costs. Furthermore having reached a certain age I am very conscious that I will be relying on the health service more and more. When I was younger I would have risked these things. Much as I want to see a UI, I have not seen detail on these issues other than claim and counter claim.

I don't think you can necessarily label yourself a nationalist then but it is in this middle ground sector like yourself on which a poll will be won and lost. It is up to the nationalist argument to convince such middle ground voters.

Any such transition or change in living standards would not simply take place overnight, that is simply not how economics work. Market forces would result in a gradual harmonisation between the two states whereby cost of living in the north would likely rise as property prices converged to an equilibrium and wages would correspondingly rise as FDI was introduced into the north to avail of an initial lower cost base. The bloated civil service in NI would need to reform which would be no harm anyway. The pro unity side would undoubtedly need to consider ways of plugging the finance gap whilst the new structures are given time to bed in. That is where they should be lobbying EU/US for some element of phased financial support. The German model whilst different does present some form of template.

Sorry, but you don't get to decide what I call myself. Read what I am saying, I need to know what it will look like and that is the challenge.

[armaghniac]

Angelo's fake news does illustrate a general problem though, SF like to pick up votes in the south by claiming that everything is crap and this has meant that they have not drawn attention to the ways in which they are much better than in the 6 counties.
For instance, even "nationalists" will claim that health is better in the 6 counties when the most that can be said about it is that you get what you pay for.

[trailer]

The problem those seeking a UI has, is not solely persuading unionists or the undecided. Many nationalists, and I would be one, need to be convinced that our standard of living will not be impaired. I cannot see wages increasing adequately in a UI to cover the increase in living costs. Furthermore having reached a certain age I am very conscious that I will be relying on the health service more and more. When I was younger I would have risked these things. Much as I want to see a UI, I have not seen detail on these issues other than claim and counter claim.

I don't think you can necessarily label yourself a nationalist then but it is in this middle ground sector like yourself on which a poll will be won and lost. It is up to the nationalist argument to convince such middle ground voters.

Any such transition or change in living standards would not simply take place overnight, that is simply not how economics work. Market forces would result in a gradual harmonisation between the two states whereby cost of living in the north would likely rise as property prices converged to an equilibrium and wages would correspondingly rise as FDI was introduced into the north to avail of an initial lower cost base. The bloated civil service in NI would need to reform which would be no harm anyway. The pro unity side would undoubtedly need to consider ways of plugging the finance gap whilst the new structures are given time to bed in. That is where they should be lobbying EU/US for some element of phased financial support. The German model whilst different does present some form of template.

Sorry, but you don't get to decide what I call myself. Read what I am saying, I need to know what it will look like and that is the challenge.

Surely the definition of "A Nationalist" in this context can decide though?

[trailer]

Angelo's fake news does illustrate a general problem though, SF like to pick up votes in the south by claiming that everything is crap and this has meant that they have not drawn attention to the ways in which they are much better than in the 6 counties.
For instance, even "nationalists" will claim that health is better in the 6 counties when the most that can be said about it is that you get what you pay for.

Health is pretty dire in the North. Even if it is free you'll be dead by the time you receive the treatment.
Health in the ROI could be better and a NHS type service, free at the point of delivery should surely be a goal in a UI.

[yellowcard]

Assuming the 1st poll takes place around 2028 will the 6 Cos still be a basket case economy? Yes.
Do people really expect the 2.5m+ people who will be working in the 26 to pick up a tab of maybe €4k extra tax per annum to keep the basket cases in the style they've become accustomed to? By the time the budget deficits from Covid are totted up, they will significantly dwarf any potential cost of reunification.
The large portion of that workforce under 35 won't remember the pre GFA days and many more of them will be foreigners or children of foreigners and won't give 2 hoots about re unifying Ireland. Then you completely misunderstand demographics, polling has consistently indicated that support for a UI is higher in lower age groups.
Firstly pro UI people will have to convince the ever growing non aligned/other people in the 6. That is the big challenge.
Can't see a large cohort of SFers doing that with their antics. Have you ever heard of the DUP

[JPGJOHNNYG]

The NHS is in the shit. It was not that long ago before covid that we had constant reminders that we had hundreds of thousands of people on huge waiting list for operations - for a country with a pop less than 2 million thats ridiculous. The thought that the NHS holds the balance in this debate is bonkers. I think people are thinking back to the service form 40 yrs ago and not the under funded overworked reality of it today