A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[BennyCake]

Irrelevant figures. Whether it's SF or DUP with the greater votes, they still won't agree on nothing.

There's a million unionists in the North or near it. Do you think they're just going to go away overnight?

Some will go away, rather than live in a united  Ireland. The rest will get on with it.

After 400 years of being top dog, I doubt they'll just get on with it. Expect another Troubles era if there's a UI.

[armaghniac]

For example the DUP should be embracing Irish, rights issues etc.  to make sure that they make their vision of Northern Ireland attractive to as many people as possible.  Instead they are battening down the hatches in case of losing a few nutters to the TUV.  You would wonder what informs their strategists.

Do they have strategists?
They are informed by their strategic principles; not an inch, no surrender, croppies lie down, Ulster will fight, etc.

However,  they also did the St Andrew's deal which made the largest party First Minister, so are afraid of SF becoming the biggest party, hence they try and kill off the UU and practice extremism to stop people defecting to the TUV. None of this increases the total unionist vote of course and only delays the first minister thing by one election anyhow.

[Owen Brannigan]

The governing/dominant unionist politicians have never had a long term strategy, they are an inward looking group incapable of real leadership of the wider unionist community who are much more capable of inclusion.

At every point in the last 60 years they have grabbed defeat in preference to providing civil rights or displaying generosity towards recognising the cultural aspirations of the minority community while enhancing the bogeyman of uprising or movement towards a united Ireland.

By keeping a narrow political vision they have controlled the agenda for unionism whether UUP and now DUP and imposed their backward social agenda.

[Jim_Murphy_74]

For example the DUP should be embracing Irish, rights issues etc.  to make sure that they make their vision of Northern Ireland attractive to as many people as possible.  Instead they are battening down the hatches in case of losing a few nutters to the TUV.  You would wonder what informs their strategists.

Do they have strategists?
They are informed by their strategic principles; not an inch, no surrender, croppies lie down, Ulster will fight, etc.

However,  they also did the St Andrew's deal which made the largest party First Minister, so are afraid of SF becoming the biggest party, hence they try and kill off the UU and practice extremism to stop people defecting to the TUV. None of this increases the total unionist vote of course and only delays the first minister thing by one election anyhow.

I presume though that they do hire in external advisors etc.. to formulate strategy.  The key for them to maintain a Northern Ireland state is to create more unionists.  Rearranging the chairs within existing unionists is pretty short term stuff.   I am guessing there is a quite a large swathe of people who are pretty lukewarm either way when it comes to constitutional setup.  A more progressive unionism would keep them in the "status quo" camp.  It really is pure tribalism from anyone that is blind to that.

/Jim.

[Rossfan]

In 2006 48% of the population of 1.88m were from a Unionist Protestant background.
That's around 900,000 probably down to 850k now and falling.
44% were from a Nationalist/Catholic background c800k.
Probably along 850k now and rising.
Where is the leader in Unionism to tell his or her people that the times they are a changing.

How soon I wonder before they try for a repartition?

[armaghniac]

I presume though that they do hire in external advisors etc.. to formulate strategy.  The key for them to maintain a Northern Ireland state is to create more unionists.  Rearranging the chairs within existing unionists is pretty short term stuff.   I am guessing there is a quite a large swathe of people who are pretty lukewarm either way when it comes to constitutional setup.  A more progressive unionism would keep them in the "status quo" camp.  It really is pure tribalism from anyone that is blind to that.

The unionists are like a man whose doctor tells him to lay off the fags, eat more vegetables and look after himself and he'll live for years. In this case to lay off the drum beating bigotry, allow a bit of green stuff and try and be a bit agreeable, and NI will last for years.  But like a late friend of mine, life isn't worth living without the fags and so a shorter life ensues.

How soon I wonder before they try for a repartition?

Not a great runner, Belfast city will not have a unionist majority and that hollows things out.

[Rossfan]

Those 120k (or more?) nationalists in Belfast would put a spoke in that wheel alright.
The obvious future in the "Northern Ireland Autonomous Region" would be to have 3 sub divisions with some powers - "West and South", " North and East" and Belfast.

[Syferus]

Those 120k (or more?) nationalists in Belfast would put a spoke in that wheel alright.
The obvious future in the "Northern Ireland Autonomous Region" would be to have 3 sub divisions with some powers - "West and South", " North and East" and Belfast.

They'd have to accept gay marriage and abortion before they'd get at our purse strings.

[armaghniac]

Those 120k (or more?) nationalists in Belfast would put a spoke in that wheel alright.
The obvious future in the "Northern Ireland Autonomous Region" would be to have 3 sub divisions with some powers - "West and South", " North and East" and Belfast.

They'd have to accept gay marriage and abortion before they'd get at our purse strings.

Haven't enough people died?

[Rossfan]

Didn't know we had "accepted" abortion? ??

[Syferus]

Didn't know we had "accepted" abortion? ??

You must have missed the memo. It'll be on the books long before unification is.

[smelmoth]

These results should represent a wake up call to unionism.

But not in the sense that a United Ireland is in any way more imminent. You would need a second data set demonstrating the link between saying you would vote SF or SDLP and actually voting for a United Ireland in a future referendum. You would also need a third data set on whether the people of RoI would vote in a referendum to take them in.

The wake up call for unionism is more to do with the running the place. A few less red lines would be a start

[Rossfan]

Didn't know we had "accepted" abortion? ??

You must have missed the memo. It'll be on the books long before unification is.

What memo?
Last I heard the Government were planning to introduce a Referendum to enable people to vote  to drop or keep Art 40/3/3 of an Bunreacht.
I'll wait and see how that goes.

(Unkind thought -can abortion be made retrospective? )

[Applesisapples]

To Unionists, SF or Nationalists having an overall majority in NI is probably worse than a UI.

[RedHand88]

To Unionists, SF or Nationalists having an overall majority in NI is probably worse than a UI.

That is true, but they are that insular they wont see it. To them a United Ireland means Gerry as President, daily recitals of a Soldiers Song, and mandatory mass attendances 7 days a week. Half of them have never been to Dublin, save maybe once for the airport when they swallowed the bitter pill to save themselves a few pound.