A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[AQMP]

Full results not published yet I took these from a radio interview with Lucid Talk.  I think he said the "swing voters" in the "Bad Brexit" scenario are some Alliance, Greens, PBP etc

This is evident if you read Slugger.
A small number of UUs in areas where Alliance are not strong might be in this category also.

The question what constitutes a bad Brexit?

Brexit

We have that word BINO again.

He (I think his name is Bill White?) did say (as you have stated too) that the important point is that there are circumstances in which some people would change their view on NI's constitutional position based on the performance of the economy, being close to the EU etc

[armaghniac]

The stupidity of Foster and the DUP is remarkable. Two years ago a UI wasn't at all on the agenda for the middle of the road person then along comes Brexit and the idea is now out there. They are lucky in that Adams is not only a bogey man but is incapable of any coherent discussion on a plan. Hopefully they won't remain lucky.

[T Fearon]

Yet Brian Feeney is telling Varadkar to act as a Taoiseach in I News today,pointing out that Nationalist politicians in the North have always struggled to get Taoisigh from De Valera onwards to stand up for Northern nationalists.

They just don't care and never have cared.Why waste time craving for a United Ireland

[armaghniac]

They just don't care and never have cared.Why waste time craving for a United Ireland

When you are voting for them, they will care more.

[armaghniac]

The radio programme is here
https://embeds.audioboom.com/posts/6426244-listen-full-analysis-of-our-exclusive-border-poll-survey-with-lucidtalk/embed/v4

There is a notable pro UI majority among those under 45 of 55% or so. This group are more likely to be from a nationalist background and presumably are more anti Brexit than older people like Tony Fearon. 

[Rossfan]

Is Tony pro Brexit?

[JPGJOHNNYG]

The radio programme is here
https://embeds.audioboom.com/posts/6426244-listen-full-analysis-of-our-exclusive-border-poll-survey-with-lucidtalk/embed/v4

There is a notable pro UI majority among those under 45 of 55% or so. This group are more likely to be from a nationalist background and presumably are more anti Brexit than older people like Tony Fearon.

I see a hard brexit has the UI vote at 45% not bad for lucid talk which often has support for UI at something ridiculous like 20%

[armaghniac]

The radio programme is here
https://embeds.audioboom.com/posts/6426244-listen-full-analysis-of-our-exclusive-border-poll-survey-with-lucidtalk/embed/v4

There is a notable pro UI majority among those under 45 of 55% or so. This group are more likely to be from a nationalist background and presumably are more anti Brexit than older people like Tony Fearon.

I see a hard brexit has the UI vote at 45% not bad for lucid talk which often has support for UI at something ridiculous like 20%

This may cause some apprehension in some quarters. 45% and the age differences here mean 50% in 14 years.
If you were a unionist, then stopping Brexit might seem a wise move.

[OgraAnDun]

The radio programme is here
https://embeds.audioboom.com/posts/6426244-listen-full-analysis-of-our-exclusive-border-poll-survey-with-lucidtalk/embed/v4

There is a notable pro UI majority among those under 45 of 55% or so. This group are more likely to be from a nationalist background and presumably are more anti Brexit than older people like Tony Fearon.

I see a hard brexit has the UI vote at 45% not bad for lucid talk which often has support for UI at something ridiculous like 20%

This may cause some apprehension in some quarters. 45% and the age differences here mean 50% in 14 years.
If you were a unionist, then stopping Brexit might seem a wise move.

That would require a level of joined up, long term, rational thinking well beyond all unionist politicians.

[armaghniac]

Bad Brexit, with undecided allocated



The DUP said well in the worst possible scenario we still win, but they must be a bit concerned under it all.

[seafoid]

The radio programme is here
https://embeds.audioboom.com/posts/6426244-listen-full-analysis-of-our-exclusive-border-poll-survey-with-lucidtalk/embed/v4

There is a notable pro UI majority among those under 45 of 55% or so. This group are more likely to be from a nationalist background and presumably are more anti Brexit than older people like Tony Fearon.

I see a hard brexit has the UI vote at 45% not bad for lucid talk which often has support for UI at something ridiculous like 20%

This may cause some apprehension in some quarters. 45% and the age differences here mean 50% in 14 years.
If you were a unionist, then stopping Brexit might seem a wise move.

That would require a level of joined up, long term, rational thinking well beyond all unionist politicians.

Britain is a failed entity. Britishness is lashed to Britain. Unionism is too. The political system is a mess. Neither the Tories nor Labour can overcome the toxic mess that is Brexit. Brexit is insane. The economy is a car crash. The UK is dependent on foreigners to keep the money going. there are very few payrises. Taxes are maybe 15% below spending. Thatcher basically broke the UK by introducing monetarism.
For the first time in maybe 600 years Ireland is doing better than the neighbours.

Unionism is trina cheile.

[Tubberman]

Bad Brexit, with undecided allocated



The DUP said well in the worst possible scenario we still win, but they must be a bit concerned under it all.

What % were the undecideds I wonder? Could be a very sizeable amount, surely enough to make up the gap on that graph (not that they'd all vote for UI).

[armaghniac]

What % were the undecideds I wonder? Could be a very sizeable amount, surely enough to make up the gap on that graph (not that they'd all vote for UI).

All these figures should be released tomorrow, but I think the undecideds were around 9%. If these mostly fell for a UI it would be close, but in reality they are more likely to favour the status quo first time out.

[T Fearon]

This argument continues to amuse me!

1.Dublin,does not want a United Ireland and 1.5m northerners whom they don't understand.

2.If Brexit is a disaster for the North,it is equally so for the Southern economy

In short it is not going to happen.

[armaghniac]

This argument continues to amuse me!

1.Dublin,does not want a United Ireland and 1.5m northerners whom they don't understand.

I live in Dublin, people understand me fine.

2.If Brexit is a disaster for the North,it is equally so for the Southern economy

It wouldn't be great, but it would come at tie of fast growth allowing the damage be repaired.

In short it is not going to happen.

A United Ireland is inevitable, not sure about Brexit.