What is the most likely future of Northern Ireland ?

[Rossfan]

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2022/0518/1299806-border-poll-neale-richmond/

[JPGJOHNNYG]

Preparation is needed now. Despite what I personally thought was a disappointing election for nationalism as a whole it still got overall 42% to Unionists 42.5%. A poll really isn't that far away on those figures. I have read several times about the disillusioned unionist vote going to Alliance which is horse shit when we look at Alliances transfers which heavily favoured nationalist parties. It's a security blanket that doesn't exist. A bit like the thousands of garden centre prods that don't vote but will save the union in a referendum- the big problem being they also don't actually exist.

[armaghniac]

The electoral register was increased as people had to be on it to claim the Covid voucher. But what were the requirements for this, what citizenship was required? There are several percent of the population of resident foreigners, many of them Eastern Europeans, and these might not get out and vote in an Assembly election (although I believe they can vote) but might be keen on a UI in the EU.

[marty34]

Preparation is needed now. Despite what I personally thought was a disappointing election for nationalism as a whole it still got overall 42% to Unionists 42.5%. A poll really isn't that far away on those figures. I have read several times about the disillusioned unionist vote going to Alliance which is horse shit when we look at Alliances transfers which heavily favoured nationalist parties. It's a security blanket that doesn't exist. A bit like the thousands of garden centre prods that don't vote but will save the union in a referendum- the big problem being they also don't actually exist.

Only thing is people's 'transfer' won't be used in a border poll.

The Alliance will have to commit - one way or the other.

[Dougal Maguire]

The other interesting thing is the age profile of the nationalist and unionist population. I understand that the Under 25 years of age profile has a higher percentage of nationalists whereas the Over 65 has a higher percentage of unionists which would suggest that from a unionist perspective the future looks bleak. However this statement comes with a health warning in that I don't remember any of the stats.

[armaghniac]

The other interesting thing is the age profile of the nationalist and unionist population. I understand that the Under 25 years of age profile has a higher percentage of nationalists whereas the Over 65 has a higher percentage of unionists which would suggest that from a unionist perspective the future looks bleak. However this statement comes with a health warning in that I don't remember any of the stats.

The oldest age groups are two thirds Protestant. Then when you are into people of working age it is much more balanced and younger people are slightly more likely to be nationalist. The point is that there is another 15-20 years when that very Protestant older cohort leave this earth and are replaced on the electoral register by a cohort with 20% more Taigs (or people with Taig tendencies anyway).

[seafoid]

The other interesting thing is the age profile of the nationalist and unionist population. I understand that the Under 25 years of age profile has a higher percentage of nationalists whereas the Over 65 has a higher percentage of unionists which would suggest that from a unionist perspective the future looks bleak. However this statement comes with a health warning in that I don't remember any of the stats.

The older generation had jobs.
The 20-65 age group has high graduate emigration.
Protestant graduate emigration did more damage to Unionism than the IRA.

[imtommygunn]

I think the DUP's demographic is a bit older. You would hope they would tail off but they're doing plenty of fearmongering so you would never know.

[seafoid]

I think the DUP's demographic is a bit older. You would hope they would tail off but they're doing plenty of fearmongering so you would never know.

The DUP are a bit like Fox News in that regard . Old farts to scare the shit out of.

[JohnDenver]

Preparation is needed now. Despite what I personally thought was a disappointing election for nationalism as a whole it still got overall 42% to Unionists 42.5%. A poll really isn't that far away on those figures. I have read several times about the disillusioned unionist vote going to Alliance which is horse shit when we look at Alliances transfers which heavily favoured nationalist parties. It's a security blanket that doesn't exist. A bit like the thousands of garden centre prods that don't vote but will save the union in a referendum- the big problem being they also don't actually exist.

Only thing is people's 'transfer' won't be used in a border poll.

The Alliance will have to commit - one way or the other.

I am wondering though will Alliance have to commit?  Could they just take the stance of agreeing to support the outcome either way based on the will of the people, and sit on the fence?

[imtommygunn]

I don't think they need to commit either. It would be political suicide for them to commit either way and I honestly think that the party would be split on it anyway.

[Rossfan]

Alliance say they have nationalists and unionists in their ranks so will hardly come down on either side. Obvious thing to do is to say let the people decide and we'll accept the outcome.
Only people here saying the "have to" commit seem to have strong SF leanings.

[trueblue1234]

They may be able to sit back in a referendum and say let the people make the call. But before that when the decision on a referendum is being discussed they will have to pick a side. If evidence shows there may be support for a UI referendum and SF and the SDLP are pushing the SoS for one then they will have to take a side. If they join SF/SDLP in asking for the referendum then they will be seen to be inherently nationalist. If they don't campaign for it when it shows clear support then they will be viewed as being inherently unionist. At that point they will suffer losses from one side or the other imo.

[rrhf]

They may be able to sit back in a referendum and say let the people make the call. But before that when the decision on a referendum is being discussed they will have to pick a side. If evidence shows there may be support for a UI referendum and SF and the SDLP are pushing the SoS for one then they will have to take a side. If they join SF/SDLP in asking for the referendum then they will be seen to be inherently nationalist. If they don't campaign for it when it shows clear support then they will be viewed as being inherently unionist. At that point they will suffer losses from one side or the other imo.

I actually think that the game has changed substantially since the election and many middle road will see the impasse and the lack of care in Johnsons Government and will have  decided to support  for a single island state when the chance comes.

[imtommygunn]

Being honest the antics since would make me vote differently and I am sure I am far from alone on that.