Scottish independence referendum thread

[Armagh18]

The UK is walking into a constitutional crisis.

popcorn time

[GJL]

The UK is walking into a constitutional crisis.

Fingers crossed . 

[John Egans left boot]

MG and the British government have changed their stance it seems after viewing the Andrew Marr show yesterday. One suspects the Tories and the SNP are strapping in for the fight. From a law background constitutionally I think if the UK AG Refers the Referendum Bill to the SC then the UK government will win on a literal reading of the 1998 Scotland Act. But this would be a very unpopular move and they know it, it would probably work against them. I hate the Tories but the good think for them is the independence movement right now is split  due to the Salmond issues, and also the SNP have huge amounts of work to do around economics and finance to attract the uncertain/undecided vote.   It will be interesting to see if Nicola reaches out to Brussels in this whole issues and if the Europeans get involved to knife the Brits in the back aiding the independence movement.   

[mouview]

MG and the British government have changed their stance it seems after viewing the Andrew Marr show yesterday. One suspects the Tories and the SNP are strapping in for the fight. From a law background constitutionally I think if the UK AG Refers the Referendum Bill to the SC then the UK government will win on a literal reading of the 1998 Scotland Act. But this would be a very unpopular move and they know it, it would probably work against them. I hate the Tories but the good think for them is the independence movement right now is split  due to the Salmond issues, and also the SNP have huge amounts of work to do around economics and finance to attract the uncertain/undecided vote.   It will be interesting to see if Nicola reaches out to Brussels in this whole issues and if the Europeans get involved to knife the Brits in the back aiding the independence movement.

I think Brussels has already unofficially pushed out the welcome mat for Scotland, they haven't been rebuffed anyway. As solid as the victory for Independence parties has been last week, the dichotomy for Sturgeon is that she doesn't want to hold a referendum until the pandemic abates and conditions normalise, yet economic improvement is playing into pro-union hands. Tories will highlight it to say that 'we're better together' and London will love-bomb Caledonia in the meantime with financial inducements and job promises. Timing will be critical and the Tories will brazen it out for as long as possible in the hope that Scots get fed up with the whole thing. If opinion polls continue to show a majority for independence though, there's no doubt it will turn up the heat strongly under BJ.

[johnnycool]

Gove telling the SNP to concentrate on Covid is arrogance in the extreme considering the cluster fúck they made of it down in London.

He's got a strange way of strengthening the union and IIRC he's Scottish by birth, isn't he?

[Rossfan]

Give was born in Scotland alright but I won't hold that against him.
He's one reprehensible yoke.

[armaghniac]

Why not have a spot of partition, it worked so well in Ireland.

https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/1391821463724990464

[Rossfan]

The same level of stupid as the Sky interviewer who asked would English be no longer the language of an Independent Scotland.
If they're into partitioning how about splitting the Countries/regions/ cities who voted to remain in the EU?

[smelmoth]

MG and the British government have changed their stance it seems after viewing the Andrew Marr show yesterday. One suspects the Tories and the SNP are strapping in for the fight. From a law background constitutionally I think if the UK AG Refers the Referendum Bill to the SC then the UK government will win on a literal reading of the 1998 Scotland Act. But this would be a very unpopular move and they know it, it would probably work against them. I hate the Tories but the good think for them is the independence movement right now is split  due to the Salmond issues, and also the SNP have huge amounts of work to do around economics and finance to attract the uncertain/undecided vote.   It will be interesting to see if Nicola reaches out to Brussels in this whole issues and if the Europeans get involved to knife the Brits in the back aiding the independence movement.

I think Brussels has already unofficially pushed out the welcome mat for Scotland, they haven't been rebuffed anyway. As solid as the victory for Independence parties has been last week, the dichotomy for Sturgeon is that she doesn't want to hold a referendum until the pandemic abates and conditions normalise, yet economic improvement is playing into pro-union hands. Tories will highlight it to say that 'we're better together' and London will love-bomb Caledonia in the meantime with financial inducements and job promises. Timing will be critical and the Tories will brazen it out for as long as possible in the hope that Scots get fed up with the whole thing. If opinion polls continue to show a majority for independence though, there's no doubt it will turn up the heat strongly under BJ.

When was this red carpet rolled out?

Have the SNP done the groundwork to sell the Euro to the Scottish electorate?

[smelmoth]

The UK is walking into a constitutional crisis.

This is true.

SNP can't win the legal battles they are threatening.

Tories can't answer the question about what avenue is open to the independence movement in Scotland.

Something has to give.

[bennydorano]

Britain Elects twitter feed today

Scottish Westminster voting intention:

SNP: 51% (+4)
CON: 21% (-4)
LAB: 17% (-3)
LDEM: 5% (+1)

via @OpiniumResearch
Chgs. w/ 03 May

The SNP will be heartened by the figures as it all appeared to be going a bit pear shaped recently- not that it's definitive in anyway.

[John Egans left boot]

What will be interesting in the coming year is when the legislature in Edinburgh passes the referendum bill the fight that will begin in the courts rep article 30 of the Scotland act 1998 - one suspects the court of session will allow the bill to proceed then the fun in the Supreme Court really starts with 2 Scottish judges on the bench in London well anything  is possible

Cue Aidan o neill

[Farrandeelin]

I saw something on Twitter that there's to be another referendum in October 2023 according to Scottish Constitution Secretary.

[tiempo]

Fair play to Nicola Sturgeon

[seafoid]

In 2014 the SNP platform was based on £x bn in revenues from North Sea oil. This is no longer relevant. So they would have a deficit of 10% of GDP or £1765 per person.
They have to fix this.

https://www.ft.com/content/ff6c0f6b-2d65-4a4e-bbba-878e2260cf3e
The FT's estimate that Scotland's deficit would be almost 10 per cent of GDP means that the size of the tax increases or spending cuts needed to bring public borrowing down to manageable levels has doubled compared with the tight expenditure limits proposed by an SNP economic commission in 2018. At the time of the 2014 plebiscite, the SNP said there was no need for any deficit reduction because the country could rely on North Sea oil revenues. Scotland's now much weaker fiscal position would present a newly independent nation with a difficult set of choices. It could impose many years of spending restraint or higher taxes — or bet that financial markets would be willing to lend at very low interest rates to a new sovereign borrower with a large and persistent deficit.