Brexit.

[seafoid]

I think the Tories will have a civil war and that Brexit will be abandoned. There is no way to come up with a formulation to satisfy the Brexit heads and the rationalists. It comes back to what Verhofstat asked last year. Tell me what you want. They still don't know.

[LeoMc]

It's going to end up a hard brexit, quite simply because it's going to be the least complicated to deliver. Hopefully the Government will fall before this and / or a 2nd Referendum will happen. I don't think Labour are any clearer in their vision of Brexit mind you and I'm still not a huge fan of Corbyn, eurosceptic that he is I think he could be bounced into a 2nd Referendum if he did get into power - hopefully having seen the cluster f**k that it is he might change his eurosceptic stance.

I think you might be right benny.  Deep down I've a bad feeling that if something has to give to get a deal between the EU and UK, then it might be the border.

Not with the Spanish on board. There are similar considerations for Gibraltar and it is FCUKed without a frictionless border.

[OgraAnDun]

It's going to end up a hard brexit, quite simply because it's going to be the least complicated to deliver. Hopefully the Government will fall before this and / or a 2nd Referendum will happen. I don't think Labour are any clearer in their vision of Brexit mind you and I'm still not a huge fan of Corbyn, eurosceptic that he is I think he could be bounced into a 2nd Referendum if he did get into power - hopefully having seen the cluster f**k that it is he might change his eurosceptic stance.

I think you might be right benny.  Deep down I've a bad feeling that if something has to give to get a deal between the EU and UK, then it might be the border.

Not with the Spanish on board. There are similar considerations for Gibraltar and it is FCUKed without a frictionless border.

The Spaniards like ramping up controls at the Gibraltar border whenever they feel like pressuring the Brits, a hard border there won't really affect the Spanish economy so I think it wouldn't annoy them too much. It would make it more likely that they regain some sort of sovereignty over it if it's totally unviable outside the EU.

[LeoMc]

It's going to end up a hard brexit, quite simply because it's going to be the least complicated to deliver. Hopefully the Government will fall before this and / or a 2nd Referendum will happen. I don't think Labour are any clearer in their vision of Brexit mind you and I'm still not a huge fan of Corbyn, eurosceptic that he is I think he could be bounced into a 2nd Referendum if he did get into power - hopefully having seen the cluster f**k that it is he might change his eurosceptic stance.

I think you might be right benny.  Deep down I've a bad feeling that if something has to give to get a deal between the EU and UK, then it might be the border.

Not with the Spanish on board. There are similar considerations for Gibraltar and it is FCUKed without a frictionless border.

The Spaniards like ramping up controls at the Gibraltar border whenever they feel like pressuring the Brits, a hard border there won't really affect the Spanish economy so I think it wouldn't annoy them too much. It would make it more likely that they regain some sort of sovereignty over it if it's totally unviable outside the EU.

Should have clarified my point. Whatever sort of border we get will be replicated at Gibraltar so it is not in UK interests to have a hard border as that would cripple Gibraltar. The Spanish would not be worried by that per se but their previously expressed interest in Gibraltar will make the UK wary of doing something which would cause the Gibraltarians hardship. They voted 96% remain.

[seafoid]

It's going to end up a hard brexit, quite simply because it's going to be the least complicated to deliver. Hopefully the Government will fall before this and / or a 2nd Referendum will happen. I don't think Labour are any clearer in their vision of Brexit mind you and I'm still not a huge fan of Corbyn, eurosceptic that he is I think he could be bounced into a 2nd Referendum if he did get into power - hopefully having seen the cluster f**k that it is he might change his eurosceptic stance.

I think you might be right benny.  Deep down I've a bad feeling that if something has to give to get a deal between the EU and UK, then it might be the border.

Not with the Spanish on board. There are similar considerations for Gibraltar and it is FCUKed without a frictionless border.

The Spaniards like ramping up controls at the Gibraltar border whenever they feel like pressuring the Brits, a hard border there won't really affect the Spanish economy so I think it wouldn't annoy them too much. It would make it more likely that they regain some sort of sovereignty over it if it's totally unviable outside the EU.

Should have clarified my point. Whatever sort of border we get will be replicated at Gibraltar so it is not in UK interests to have a hard border as that would cripple Gibraltar. The Spanish would not be worried by that per se but their previously expressed interest in Gibraltar will make the UK wary of doing something which would cause the Gibraltarians hardship. They voted 96% remain.

I don't think people like Rees Mogg care about Gibraltar or NI for that matter

[mouview]

He'd care more about GIB than NI.

[seafoid]

He'd care more about GIB than NI.

He reminds me of someone

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3-5IYfL7Xus/U-STsk177aI/AAAAAAAABmQ/prDKugLhRRE/s1600/CUTHBERT.jpg

[mouview]

He'd care more about GIB than NI.

He reminds me of someone

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3-5IYfL7Xus/U-STsk177aI/AAAAAAAABmQ/prDKugLhRRE/s1600/CUTHBERT.jpg

Everytime I see Buffoon Boris, the song 'Big Rock Candy Mountain' starts playing my head.

[AQMP]

I see arch-Brexiteer Daniel Hannan (he who said that Brexit wouldn't mean leaving the SM and CU) when asked yesterday on BBC Radio to name an EU Law he was looking forward to getting rid of, spluttered something about regulations around child car seats.  Yes, you've guessed it, apart from the fact that it's an unusual thing to leave the EU over, the regulations around child car seats have nothing to do with the EU.

I suppose it's a step up from straight bananas?

[Ronnie]

Offer me solutions, offer me alternatives. And I decline.   Year and artist?

[seafoid]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/07/uks-brexit-red-lines-will-limit-depth-of-future-trade-deal-eu-guidelines

The EU has dismissed Theresa May's vision for a post-Brexit trade relationship, laying out instead the offer of a deal that it concedes will be economically damaging to both the UK and the rest of Europe.

Unveiling the union's guidelines on the future relationship, the president of the European council, Donald Tusk, said it was "simply not in our interests" to give way to the prime minister's "pick and mix" approach.

"I fully understand and respect Theresa May's political objectives to demonstrate at any price that Brexit will be a success and was the right choice", he said. "I'm sorry, this is not our objective ...

"No member state is free to pick only those sectors of the single market it likes, nor to accept the role of the ECJ only when it suits their interest. By the same token, a pick-and-mix approach for a non-member state is out of the question."

Speaking during a visit to Luxembourg, Tusk said in response to the reiteration in May's Mansion House speech of her desire to leave the single market, customs union and jurisdiction of the European court of justice: "Therefore, it should come as no surprise that the only remaining possible model is a free trade agreement.



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"I hope that it will be ambitious and advanced – and we will do our best, as we did with other partners, such as Canada recently – but anyway it will only be a trade agreement."

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The guidelines say that in return for signing up to a free-trade agreement the British government willbe obliged to sign up to a commitment not to become a low-tax, low-regulation state that undercuts the EU model.

They further warn that Brussels will not push on with negotiations on trade until May signs up to a legal text that translates all the commitments made by the UK government in the first phase of negotiations, including on avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland.

May has refused to accept the EU's draft withdrawal agreement as it suggests Northern Ireland may need to effectively stay in the customs union and single market. "Negotiations can only progress as long as all commitments undertaken so far are respected in full, and calls for intensified efforts on the remaining withdrawal issues", the guidelines say.

[seafoid]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/08/bleak-brexit-impact-analysis-published-by-parliament

Anti-Brexit campaigners have seized on a bleak Whitehall assessment of the economic impact of leaving the European Union, published following a battle over government secrecy.

MPs voted in January for the document to be released in full, but its publication was resisted by the Brexit secretary, David Davis.

The cross-party Brexit select committee issued the document, which was prepared to aid thinking inside government about possible scenarios, on Thursday.

As leaks had suggested, government number crunchers found that economic growth would suffer under any of the existing models for a future relationship with the EU – a Norway-type European Economic Area (EEA) model; a free trade agreement; or trading on the basis of World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules alone.

Under the worst scenario – a WTO-type arrangement – GDP could decline by a cumulative 7.7% over 15 years, the analysis found; while under an EEA deal it would be 1.6%.

However, pro-Brexit MPs questioned the credibility of the forecasts. Jacob Rees-Mogg, who chairs the backbench European Research Group, said the research had been "so widely leaked and ridiculed for its approach that it is of little consequence".

The Democratic Unionist party's Westminster leader, Arlene Foster, also toughened her language, attacking the EU's hardening stance on trade and the Irish border at the same event.

In a speech criticising the European commission's "bad faith" on the border issue, Foster hit out at the view of Brussels leaders that failure to accept proposals for keeping the border open would encourage a return of terrorism – which, she said, was tantamount to a threat.

The Whitehall Brexit analysis points to potential border checks as one of the "non-tariff barriers" that are the "most material consideration" in assessing the potential costs of post-Brexit trade.

In the retail sector, for example, officials calculate that these non-tariff barriers could be equivalent to the EU slapping tariffs of up to 20% on British exports, the document suggests – with chemicals facing tariffs well above 10%.



This analysis helps to explain why Theresa May said in her speech last week that Britain was keen to remain under the auspices of some key EU regulatory bodies.

the analysis suggests the long-term gains from striking new trade deals with non-EU countries – a central plank of the pro-Brexit case – could be just 0.2%-0.7% of GDP. That would probably be dwarfed by the losses from a looser relationship with the EU, officials believe

[Rossfan]

Why is anyone quoting Nobody Foster?

[seafoid]

MR2 special

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/mar/09/wine-prices-to-rise-as-bad-weather-brings-worst-harvest-for-50-years

The devaluation of sterling in the wake of the Brexit vote has already had an impact on the cost of wine in supermarkets which is up by an average of 4% over the past year, according to research firm Nielsen. French wine cost 5.5% more, while the price tag for Portuguese and Italian varieties increased by 5.1% and 3.5% respectively.

[Milltown Row2]

Weather and Brexit !

Pricey for wine down here! In Waterford last night and the price of drink is Scandalous !