6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

[Kidder81]

To suggest that we will go back to anything even remotely like the troubles is complete and utter balls.
Get a grip of your hyperbole.

I'm not even sure its possible to have a border poll >> UI without violence at all.

But sustained violence will need significant support from the hardercore unionist population.

When you look back through our recent history, and the penchant for loyalists to quickly take to the streets and use violence to try and drive or reverse decisions, what on earth makes you believe it'd pass off without much issue?

I didn't say it would but by Christ there is one hell of a leap between 2 burning buses and the troubles.
You are scaremongering and it's all dung.

Loyalists are easily bought off

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

From Terence O'Neill to Michelle O'Neill in just over 50 years.

And some people still think there'll never be a United Ireland.

There wont unless the political economy is fixed

Seafood, why do you make such definitive statements about something you know f**k all about lad?

Look at opinion polls, Itchy. Sunday Indo anytime. Southern voters do not want to pay for NI. So NI has to pay its own way.
What do you know about fixing NI ?

Yeh, whenever I need to know about the North I read the f**king Sunday Indo. Are you off your rocker.

Who is expected to pay for NI post unification, Itchy, you muppet ? Is it DUP voters?

Take a break from the Indo Seafold and turn to the Irish Times
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-subvention-to-north-irrelevant-to-debate-on-irish-unity-1.4587773

UK subvention to North irrelevant to debate on Irish unity, it will have dropped to 3bn p/a  a sum easily covered by the benefits of unity.
Economic debate on unity needs to move on to policy decisions needed for growth.
writes John Doyle  a professor in the School of Law and Government in Dublin City University. who has writ much about all things Northern Ireland
https://www.researchgate.net/scientific-contributions/John-Doyle-17915349

in particular on Debating the Cost of Irish Reunification: A Response to
'Why the Subvention does not Matter'
https://muse.jhu.edu/article/810169/pdf

Northern Ireland is poor. If you look at income per head, Derry,Fermanagh, Tyrone, South Armagh, North Antrim  and South Down would be on a similar level to Roscommon and Monaghan.

South Antrim , North Down and North Armagh are richer , equivalent to Cavan but significantly behind Clare.

It is not enough to deal with the Subvention. NI needs to close the gap with say Munster.

Please present your data to support this statement

GDP per capita in South roughly 99k dollars, in NI it's 24k sterling.

[Armagh18]

From Terence O'Neill to Michelle O'Neill in just over 50 years.

And some people still think there'll never be a United Ireland.

There wont unless the political economy is fixed

What economy lol, doesn't matter up here, we don't have one

Nobody in the South will vote for unification if NI remains an economic basket case

ok

[Armagh18]

I've always considered Alliance unionist and it baffles me tbh how lads on here would attack the stoops as they call them before alliance .

Probably because Alliance are a decent party with policies other than attacking SF.

[Kidder81]

Justin McNukty get in then ? He was under big pressure I thought

[Armagh18]

Not a great day TBH.

Further polarisation and we're constantly moving further away from a UI with any kind of super-majority consensus.


Things keep going as they are and the Shinners will try and ram a border poll in first chance they get - without much thought as to what happens if it did go through 51/49.

How do we know they aren't thinking of what happens after? 'Cos they sure as f**k aren't laying any ground work right now.


[Now, to be fair, the unionist parties can't face that future and are sticking their heads in the ground with respect to the inevitable. Which doesn't help, but Sinn Fein's building of an economic case for a UI - to the public BOTH sides of the border - is utterly non existent.]

Then there is a UI as laid out in the GFA...

[Armagh18]

From Terence O'Neill to Michelle O'Neill in just over 50 years.

And some people still think there'll never be a United Ireland.

There wont unless the political economy is fixed

Seafood, why do you make such definitive statements about something you know f**k all about lad?

Look at opinion polls, Itchy. Sunday Indo anytime. Southern voters do not want to pay for NI. So NI has to pay its own way.
What do you know about fixing NI ?

Yeh, whenever I need to know about the North I read the f**king Sunday Indo. Are you off your rocker.

Who is expected to pay for NI post unification, Itchy, you muppet ? Is it DUP voters?

It won't be "NI" it will be a 32 county Republic. If you think 2 separate entities on a tiny island is a good idea economically you need your head looked about.

[Armagh18]

Is there a case for a border poll never being won given that SF seem to have hit their ceiling and the middle ground is where the gains are to be had.

Hard to see where the extra yes votes come from to get over the 50%.

I'd say plenty of the Alliance voters would vote for unity if push comes to shove. Haven't seen anything official consensus seemed to be that a lost of Alliance transfers would go Green. Whats not talked about as well is the amount of people who don't vote at all who will come out for a border poll.

[Armagh18]

Is there a case for a border poll never being won given that SF seem to have hit their ceiling and the middle ground is where the gains are to be had.

Hard to see where the extra yes votes come from to get over the 50%.

The people in the middle can be persuaded, but SF will not do it.

All the SF bashers seem to forget that people would be voting for a United Ireland, not for Sinn Fein...

[marty34]

Conor Rafferty 13 votes for Resume in Mid Ulster? What party is this and why did he stand?

https://www.derrynow.com/news/election/805189/newly-formed-party-s-candidate-withdraws-from-race-on-election-morning.html

I think the Grreen Party told people, a day or two before, not to vote for their candidate in Mid Ulster.

Not sure why though - fall out of some description maybe.

[marty34]

It will be a sad inditement of this place if Nichola Mallon loses her seat

Why?

You blaming the voters?

[Armagh18]

Pretty much all of this is bollix.
"Straight back to the troubles". Wise yourself up.

When buses are burned and there is violence on the streets over an EU protocol that most of those on the streets couldn't tell you two accurate sentences about - you actually expect a marginal border to pass off without incident?

Have you took leave of your senses?!?

Realistically the loyalists did f**k all during the troubles without British weapons, intelligence and a police force that either openly helped or turned a blind eye. Would they get that again?

[Armagh18]

From Terence O'Neill to Michelle O'Neill in just over 50 years.

And some people still think there'll never be a United Ireland.

There wont unless the political economy is fixed

Seafood, why do you make such definitive statements about something you know f**k all about lad?

Look at opinion polls, Itchy. Sunday Indo anytime. Southern voters do not want to pay for NI. So NI has to pay its own way.
What do you know about fixing NI ?

Yeh, whenever I need to know about the North I read the f**king Sunday Indo. Are you off your rocker.

Who is expected to pay for NI post unification, Itchy, you muppet ? Is it DUP voters?

Take a break from the Indo Seafold and turn to the Irish Times
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-subvention-to-north-irrelevant-to-debate-on-irish-unity-1.4587773

UK subvention to North irrelevant to debate on Irish unity, it will have dropped to 3bn p/a  a sum easily covered by the benefits of unity.
Economic debate on unity needs to move on to policy decisions needed for growth.
writes John Doyle  a professor in the School of Law and Government in Dublin City University. who has writ much about all things Northern Ireland
https://www.researchgate.net/scientific-contributions/John-Doyle-17915349

in particular on Debating the Cost of Irish Reunification: A Response to
'Why the Subvention does not Matter'
https://muse.jhu.edu/article/810169/pdf

Northern Ireland is poor. If you look at income per head, Derry,Fermanagh, Tyrone, South Armagh, North Antrim  and South Down would be on a similar level to Roscommon and Monaghan.

South Antrim , North Down and North Armagh are richer , equivalent to Cavan but significantly behind Clare.

It is not enough to deal with the Subvention. NI needs to close the gap with say Munster.

Have you ever drove through South Armagh? More mansions that Beverly Hills.

[Armagh18]

Justin McNukty get in then ? He was under big pressure I thought

Yeah, unfortunately Malone didn't do as well as I expected. No change in Newry and Armagh...

[RadioGAAGAA]

Pretty much all of this is bollix.
"Straight back to the troubles". Wise yourself up.

When buses are burned and there is violence on the streets over an EU protocol that most of those on the streets couldn't tell you two accurate sentences about - you actually expect a marginal border to pass off without incident?

Have you took leave of your senses?!?

Realistically the loyalists did f**k all during the troubles without British weapons, intelligence and a police force that either openly helped or turned a blind eye. Would they get that again?

That is a fair point - could they operate without that?

But if they have a sizeable support base (5-10% NoI population would be enough) then after the initial riots settle, they'd likely be able to cause ongoing sporadic trouble (which would still be fatal for those on the end of it obviously).

They already have the weapons. They're now well set up as drug dealing thugs so would know were to procure more ammo.


*how much money toward "community groups" ends up in the hands of paramilitaries? I'd be confident its a pretty significant amount.