6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

Started by Snapchap, February 23, 2022, 10:18:43 AM

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trileacman

Quote from: Snapchap on May 06, 2022, 09:19:26 PM
Quote from: trileacman on May 06, 2022, 08:09:37 PM
SF vote is falling in West Tyrone, Newry and Armagh, Foyle,
What?! SFs vote in West Tyrone is up by 1.3% and down by the same in Newry/Armagh. In Foyle their vote was down yet still they outpolled the SDLP with two totally new, untested candidates. In FST (also west of the Bann last time I checked) their vote has also increased (by 2.5%). Lastly, in Mid-Ulster, their vote was the same. So your suggestion that SF are haemorrhaging votes west of the Bann is just nonsense. I think you are confusing what the commentators predicted with what actually happened.

Quote from: trileacman on May 06, 2022, 08:09:37 PM
They hold the majority of seats here and keep a Protestant minority out of the running for most who usually have to pool their votes at the final round to get a token Unionist elected.
Lol what? So SF are excluding Protestants from political representation in nationalist areas because they have the temerity to stand as many candidates as they believe can get elected? What do you want? Nationalists to not vote in constituencies where they are a majority?

Quote from: trileacman on May 06, 2022, 08:09:37 PM
Quite a few Unionist votes are left at home or lost in race for 5th place. If Alliance ran a candidate from a typical West Ulster Unionist background they'd still hold the Alliance vote, take a few floating voters off SF/SDLP and sweep up a good portion of Unionist who want to vote for someone with a chance of being elected.
Alliance have a Catholic candidate in West Tyrone who performed poorly. You think there's a big population of SF/SDLP voters in the constituency who didn't vote Alliance because they wanted their candidate to be Protestant?

Listen, you've tried your best to portray today as being a bad day for SF but seriously. Lay off whatever it is you're smoking.

Look up the west Tyrone vote % and get back to me when you see your mistake.
Fantasy Rugby World Cup Champion 2011,
Fantasy 6 Nations Champion 2014

screenexile

Quote from: armaghniac on May 06, 2022, 10:16:31 PM
Quote from: screenexile on May 06, 2022, 10:10:12 PM
Is there a case for a border poll never being won given that SF seem to have hit their ceiling and the middle ground is where the gains are to be had.

Hard to see where the extra yes votes come from to get over the 50%.

The people in the middle can be persuaded, but SF will not do it.

Maybe we need to have a border poll and lose to see what needs to happen to win one.

Snapchap

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on May 06, 2022, 10:17:18 PM
Quote from: Snapchap on May 06, 2022, 10:14:06 PM
You actually expected the TUV to lose ground? And the SDLP to make significant gains from SF? You haven't been paying attention!

No. Expecting and hoping are two different things.

Furthermore, the TUV haven't really taken the DUPs vote. They've taken the UUPs vote by the look of it.

Yeah but I asked you what you expected, not what you hoped for

RadioGAAGAA

#858
Quote from: Snapchap on May 06, 2022, 10:20:40 PM
Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on May 06, 2022, 10:17:18 PM
Quote from: Snapchap on May 06, 2022, 10:14:06 PM
You actually expected the TUV to lose ground? And the SDLP to make significant gains from SF? You haven't been paying attention!

No. Expecting and hoping are two different things.

Furthermore, the TUV haven't really taken the DUPs vote. They've taken the UUPs vote by the look of it.

Yeah but I asked you what you expected, not what you hoped for

I don't care what you asked.
Expectations have no bearing on my summation; Not a great day.  [aka I was hoping for better]


and sure while I'm here - yes, I did expect an erosion of the very hardline unionist vote when they seen the absolute farce their elected representatives made of Brexit.

Both the TUV and DUP supported it, and both are in favour of scrapping the mechanism allowing NI to trade with the EU.

So its extremely disappointing that their voters are either that deeply entrenched with the UK or that stupid they don't realise they are cutting off their nose to spite their face.

i usse an speelchekor

HiMucker

#859
Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on May 06, 2022, 09:31:17 PM
Not a great day TBH.

Further polarisation and we're constantly moving further away from a UI with any kind of super-majority consensus.


Things keep going as they are and the Shinners will try and ram a border poll in first chance they get - without much thought as to what happens if it did go through 51/49.

How do we know they aren't thinking of what happens after? 'Cos they sure as f**k aren't laying any ground work right now.


[Now, to be fair, the unionist parties can't face that future and are sticking their heads in the ground with respect to the inevitable. Which doesn't help, but Sinn Fein's building of an economic case for a UI - to the public BOTH sides of the border - is utterly non existent.]
Sorry I've seen this now a few times and its simply not true. Sf have been calling out for the ground work to be done. This is not SFs sole responsibility either, and to be honest its better that it's not for the necessary buy in. Both FF and Fg repeately come out with the nonsense along othe lines of "now is not the time to discuss it" or other such phrases. Now is certainly the time to be discussing it and all major parties on this island should have serious input and discussion in to this. Obviously the unionist ones won't want to engage but their input should be constantly sought. The current government in the South should have a working group already on this, but no surprise they don't. But you and others lay the blame at SF for not doing more on this? I don't get that thought process at all. I am not a shinner, I would certainly like to see them do more on the groundwork of what a new Ireland would look like, regarding the economy, education etc etc, but as far I can see they are only party looking at it. And like I alluded to earlier, that is actually a problem, for it to work and have buy in it has to be seen as a collective effort from right across all the relevant institutions in Ireland.

RadioGAAGAA

#860
Quote from: HiMucker on May 06, 2022, 10:25:16 PM
Sorry I've seen this now a few times and its simply not true. Sf have been calling out for the ground work to be done. This is not SFs sole responsibility either, and to be honest its better that it's not for the necessary buy in. Both FF and Fg repeately come out with the nonsense along othe lines of "now is not the time to discuss it" or other such phrases. Now is certainly the time to be discussing it and all major parties on this island should have serious input and discussion in to this.

I'll snip to this if thats OK.

Problem is, SF are saying we need to lay ground work in one minute, then calling for a poll the next.

We aren't ready to discuss a border poll, and its no wonder that people are looking to cool that talk down.


SF should get around the concept of
1. Openly state no border poll within 15 years.
2. Then given people will feel less pressured and pushed into a corner - start saying there needs to be work toward being ready for the day a border poll is passed - and that day could be in 15 years. [which given where we are now, is a pretty short space of time]


When they put pressure on for a poll immediately - they are killing it. If they did end up with a poll before we're ready - we'll be straight back to the troubles. They don't seem to recognise that.


Quote from: HiMucker on May 06, 2022, 10:25:16 PM
And like I alluded to earlier, that is actually a problem, for it to work and have buy in it has to be seen as a collective effort from right across all the relevant institutions in Ireland.

Very much agreed. Pushing through before we're ready and there is a sizeable supermajority will end very badly.
i usse an speelchekor

trueblue1234

This is true. People ( and posters on this board) repeatedly have condemned SF for not doing enough work into preparing a case for a UI. Yet in the same breath say that SF have too much baggage and shouldn't take over the process as they will never sell it to the centre.

So I'm at a loss as to what they people actually expect SF to do wrt the constitutional question.
Grammar: the difference between knowing your shit

Snapchap

#862
Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on May 06, 2022, 10:15:39 PM
- RHI
- Brexit
- Yet another Stormont collapse when Health Service is dying.

Did that affect them? Apparently not a bit.
Not a bit? They took a hammering today! They are down 41,000 votes on 2017.

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on May 06, 2022, 10:15:39 PM
TUV is the new party of "No". No forward thinking, no opportunities, no development. No move on from 1690.
Let's not overstate it. The TUV vote increased but they are still minnows.

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on May 06, 2022, 09:31:17 PM
The mind boggles indeed..

"the Secretary of State shall exercise the power under paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."

If SF get a majority vote in Stormont on a motion for a border poll that is only stopped by a minority petition of concern, that's pretty damn compelling.

The shall in there forces the SoS's hand under the above circumstance.
Well if the SoS called a border poll because of the result of a democratic election result that saw SF do well, then that's the people "ramming in" a border poll, rather than SF doing so, surely? Should SF stop running in elections incase they accidentally leave the British with no choice but to call a border poll. Catch yourself on. SF becoming the largest party won't result in the British SoS calling a border poll. Such a poll won't happen until nationalism holds a strong majority in stormont and successive opinion polls point to unity being the people's wish. Today not only won't lead to SF "ramming in" a border poll. It can't lead to them doing so. They have no power to do so.

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on May 06, 2022, 09:31:17 PM
Ha. Have you any evidence of their lobbying for a citizens assembly?
Google "Sinn Fein Citizens Assembly". You don't need me to do it for you. If you didn't know they have been lobbying for a citizens assembly on Irish Unity, you really must have been living under a rock.

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on May 06, 2022, 09:31:17 PM
Building political support with whom? Far as I can see they are a pariah to all other parties north and south.
Building support amongst the people. Successfully so. They are by a long, long way the most popular party in Ireland.

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on May 06, 2022, 09:31:17 PM
They don't need to be in government to instigate the creation of a citizens assembly.
Indeed, its better if they aren't in government - 'cos to make this work - its going to have to be a workable solution across the political spectrum - and definitely not something constructed entirely to SF's specification.
You see it doesn't matter what you think. It's about what the electorate think. If SF are mandated to be in government, then that's it's the electorate's specifications that are being fulfilled.

Main Street

#863
Quote from: seafoid on May 06, 2022, 09:45:59 PM
Quote from: Itchy on May 06, 2022, 09:22:08 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 06, 2022, 09:17:28 PM
Quote from: Itchy on May 06, 2022, 09:15:05 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 06, 2022, 07:47:29 PM
Quote from: Snapchap on May 06, 2022, 07:32:31 PM
From Terence O'Neill to Michelle O'Neill in just over 50 years.

And some people still think there'll never be a United Ireland.
There wont unless the political economy is fixed

Seafood, why do you make such definitive statements about something you know f**k all about lad?
Look at opinion polls, Itchy. Sunday Indo anytime. Southern voters do not want to pay for NI. So NI has to pay its own way.
What do you know about fixing NI ?

Yeh, whenever I need to know about the North I read the f**king Sunday Indo. Are you off your rocker.
Who is expected to pay for NI post unification, Itchy, you muppet ? Is it DUP voters?
Take a break from the Indo Seafold and turn to the Irish Times
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-subvention-to-north-irrelevant-to-debate-on-irish-unity-1.4587773

UK subvention to North irrelevant to debate on Irish unity, it will have dropped to 3bn p/a  a sum easily covered by the benefits of unity.
Economic debate on unity needs to move on to policy decisions needed for growth.
writes John Doyle  a professor in the School of Law and Government in Dublin City University. who has writ much about all things Northern Ireland
https://www.researchgate.net/scientific-contributions/John-Doyle-17915349

in particular on Debating the Cost of Irish Reunification: A Response to
'Why the Subvention does not Matter'
https://muse.jhu.edu/article/810169/pdf

ONeill

It's all part of the slow march to the intended end of the Collins agreement. Not really that slow in terms of Irish history, but a bloody path.
I wanna have my kicks before the whole shithouse goes up in flames.

WT4E

Conor Rafferty 13 votes for Resume in Mid Ulster? What party is this and why did he stand?

screenexile

TUV still might only finish with 1 seat?!


RedHand88

Quote from: screenexile on May 06, 2022, 11:24:41 PM
TUV still might only finish with 1 seat?!

Yep. That's why transfers matter!

ONeill

Was it the pro-vaccination and pro-mask crowd that did well?
I wanna have my kicks before the whole shithouse goes up in flames.