Will you vote for Fianna Fail?

[muppet]

Do you think Fianna Fail deliberately misled the Dail? That they knew the banks were insolvent and thus the country becoming bankrupt was inevitable?

The guarantee seemed by most to be a good idea at the time, but it was just too wide.

Personally I don't put the blame of the guarantee (and the blanketness of it) on FF - it was certain individuals within FF, in particular Cowen and Lenihan, although it appears Cowen was most adamant that it go ahead while Lenihan had some doubts.

For me, that makes Cowen the biggest Irish villain in the history of the Irish state. It absolutely sickens me the huge money he's still receiving that is coming out of taxpayers' pockets. But blaming FF party members who had no idea what was going on that night, and blaming current party members who werent even in office in those days is too extreme. Might as well blame everyone who's ever given them a top 3 or 4 preference vote.

There is two issues here.
One is the policies of FF for a period of loose regulation and disinterest in what the banks were up to, this was supported by many, but Cowen was the Minister of Finance and has to take the largest share of the blame.
Then there is a particular events of the guarantee.

But to focus on one single day is to blame the goalkeeper for the complete lack of defence or in motoring parlance to say that the driver should have swerved left instead of right when it was his decision to drive too fast that brought the need to swerve about.

One of the issues here is the dividing of oversight between the Central Bank, which before joining the Euro had complete responsibility, and the Financial Regulator, whose main achievement was the advert which began 'I don't know what a tracker mortgage is'. McCreevy wanted the Central Bank to continue to provide oversight, while Mary Harney of the PDs insisted oversight was split and the office of the Financial Regulator was created. Bertie went with Harney and the new Qango, and that appears to have been a disastrous decision for all of us.

The guarantee was idiotic. See the early pages of the Bailout thread, and in particular BogBall XV's prescient posts the day after.

Just back from the beer I mentioned earlier.

Shouldn't have gone.

From what I hear Irish banking will not be the same by lunchtime today. Better stay in bed.

Beer on a Monday night is never a good thing unless you've just won the AI - In that instance, it's almost compulsory ! 

Good news for Irish banking ?

Will UK and other governments follow suit ?

I don't know the ins and outs of it yet, but it seems to be a massive piece of bluffing by lenno - if he were ever asked to pay up, he couldn't, i suppose it depends on how long it will be before the markets either test his promise or just decide to disbelieve him.  If he has to come up with the goods, it'll be a disaster for the taxpayer.  We're currently talking about the budget from hell coming up because tax revenues are short by 7bn on estimates (you have to wonder what idiot came up with the estimates), yet the minister finds it okay to guarantee over €400Bn of loans made by banks?  If 10% go bad (probably not an unreasonable assumption) that's €40 Bn, almost our total annual budget.
It would have been a better idea to force some mergers between the banks who appeared in serious bother yesterday and the ones who just appeared in bother.

More here.....

http://gaaboard.com/board/index.php?topic=9548.45

[Hardy]

Bogball is missing from the board since 2011. A great pity. He was a top-notch contributor.

[armaghniac]

Yeah, like armaghniac says, there are two separate issues:

- one is the policies which lead to the bubble, the blame for which I would lay squarely at the feet of FF as a party. Others may have had similar policies but the bottom line is that FF were in govt and it was their policies which helped create the bubble. That corrupt f*cker Bertie and his cronies are 100% culpable for this

- second is the decision on the night of the bank guarantee - firstly to guarantee Anglo & NIB and secondly to guarantee unsecured bondholders (although the pressure on this second part likely came from Europe). Cowen / Lenihan took a gamble that this would work out and it backfired completely

The point was that through the incompetence of the Regulator they didn't really know in what state the banks were and the banks lied to them pure and simple. The guarantee was made from a position of pure ignorance, both of economic theory and of actual data, as any outright fraud on the part of Cowan.

IMHO the damage could have been reduced if they had taken prompt action after Northern Rock/Lehmans etc to identify the real state of the Irish banking sector, with real data then it might have been clearer to have a more limited guarantee.

[muppet]

Yeah, like armaghniac says, there are two separate issues:

- one is the policies which lead to the bubble, the blame for which I would lay squarely at the feet of FF as a party. Others may have had similar policies but the bottom line is that FF were in govt and it was their policies which helped create the bubble. That corrupt f*cker Bertie and his cronies are 100% culpable for this

- second is the decision on the night of the bank guarantee - firstly to guarantee Anglo & NIB and secondly to guarantee unsecured bondholders (although the pressure on this second part likely came from Europe). Cowen / Lenihan took a gamble that this would work out and it backfired completely

The point was that through the incompetence of the Regulator they didn't really know in what state the banks were and the banks lied to them pure and simple. The guarantee was made from a position of pure ignorance, both of economic theory and of actual data, as any outright fraud on the part of Cowan.

IMHO the damage could have been reduced if they had taken prompt action after Northern Rock/Lehmans etc to identify the real state of the Irish banking sector, with real data then it might have been clearer to have a more limited guarantee.

Lehman's only happened two weeks beforehand. Maybe you meant Bear Stearns? After that event, they spent most of their time and energy trying to stop Sean Quinn's gambling from pulling Anglo down afaik.

[armaghniac]

Yeah, like armaghniac says, there are two separate issues:

- one is the policies which lead to the bubble, the blame for which I would lay squarely at the feet of FF as a party. Others may have had similar policies but the bottom line is that FF were in govt and it was their policies which helped create the bubble. That corrupt f*cker Bertie and his cronies are 100% culpable for this

- second is the decision on the night of the bank guarantee - firstly to guarantee Anglo & NIB and secondly to guarantee unsecured bondholders (although the pressure on this second part likely came from Europe). Cowen / Lenihan took a gamble that this would work out and it backfired completely

The point was that through the incompetence of the Regulator they didn't really know in what state the banks were and the banks lied to them pure and simple. The guarantee was made from a position of pure ignorance, both of economic theory and of actual data, as any outright fraud on the part of Cowan.

IMHO the damage could have been reduced if they had taken prompt action after Northern Rock/Lehmans etc to identify the real state of the Irish banking sector, with real data then it might have been clearer to have a more limited guarantee.

Lehman's only happened two weeks beforehand. Maybe you meant Bear Stearns? After that event, they spent most of their time and energy trying to stop Sean Quinn's gambling from pulling Anglo down afaik.

I may have got my timelines mixed up. The point being that the storm was on the horizon but nothing much was done to prepare for it.

[muppet]

Yeah, like armaghniac says, there are two separate issues:

- one is the policies which lead to the bubble, the blame for which I would lay squarely at the feet of FF as a party. Others may have had similar policies but the bottom line is that FF were in govt and it was their policies which helped create the bubble. That corrupt f*cker Bertie and his cronies are 100% culpable for this

- second is the decision on the night of the bank guarantee - firstly to guarantee Anglo & NIB and secondly to guarantee unsecured bondholders (although the pressure on this second part likely came from Europe). Cowen / Lenihan took a gamble that this would work out and it backfired completely

The point was that through the incompetence of the Regulator they didn't really know in what state the banks were and the banks lied to them pure and simple. The guarantee was made from a position of pure ignorance, both of economic theory and of actual data, as any outright fraud on the part of Cowan.

IMHO the damage could have been reduced if they had taken prompt action after Northern Rock/Lehmans etc to identify the real state of the Irish banking sector, with real data then it might have been clearer to have a more limited guarantee.

Lehman's only happened two weeks beforehand. Maybe you meant Bear Stearns? After that event, they spent most of their time and energy trying to stop Sean Quinn's gambling from pulling Anglo down afaik.

I may have got my timelines mixed up. The point being that the storm was on the horizon but nothing much was done to prepare for it.

Northern Rock was well beforehand so I agree. Bear Stearns was 6 months before but as I said, they seemed to be caught up with Quinn and Anglo rather than looking at the wider system.

It is great that the enquiries each find no one did anything wrong. Imagine how bad it could have been if they f*cked up!

[Hound]

Yeah, like armaghniac says, there are two separate issues:

- one is the policies which lead to the bubble, the blame for which I would lay squarely at the feet of FF as a party. Others may have had similar policies but the bottom line is that FF were in govt and it was their policies which helped create the bubble. That corrupt f*cker Bertie and his cronies are 100% culpable for this

- second is the decision on the night of the bank guarantee - firstly to guarantee Anglo & NIB and secondly to guarantee unsecured bondholders (although the pressure on this second part likely came from Europe). Cowen / Lenihan took a gamble that this would work out and it backfired completely

You've split the first point into two separate issues.
- Corruption/croneyism - where more of them should have gone to jail, or personally I think hitting them in the pocket would hurt them more, as that was their motivation. Hit them hard with fines and penalties and take away their govt pensions

- In running the economy, they absolutely did no different than any other party would have done. Never once did an opposition TD respond after a budget saying, we should increase taxes and/or reduce spending - in fact to a man/woman I'd say they all said the oppositive - you could have reduced more taxes, you could have spent more.

The only two "outside of the box" policies they came up with (that I can think of) were the National Pension Reserve Fund and the Decentralisation. NPRF was a good idea that was met with more groans than applause, but at least they stuck with it and pushed it through.

Decentralisation was a great idea to try and avoid the boom being too Dublin-centric. Things wouldnt have got quite so bad in provincial towns up and down the country if they'd had the backbone to go against the unions (and every other political party who rowed in with the unions) and implement it.

[Rossfan]

I knew some one would get around to blaming " the unions".
If we could only abolish them.........what a great place Ireland would be

[armaghniac]

You've split the first point into two separate issues.
- Corruption/croneyism - where more of them should have gone to jail, or personally I think hitting them in the pocket would hurt them more, as that was their motivation. Hit them hard with fines and penalties and take away their govt pensions

- In running the economy, they absolutely did no different than any other party would have done. Never once did an opposition TD respond after a budget saying, we should increase taxes and/or reduce spending - in fact to a man/woman I'd say they all said the oppositive - you could have reduced more taxes, you could have spent more.

The only two "outside of the box" policies they came up with (that I can think of) were the National Pension Reserve Fund and the Decentralisation. NPRF was a good idea that was met with more groans than applause, but at least they stuck with it and pushed it through.

Decentralisation was a great idea to try and avoid the boom being too Dublin-centric. Things wouldnt have got quite so bad in provincial towns up and down the country if they'd had the backbone to go against the unions (and every other political party who rowed in with the unions) and implement it.

I think that McCreevey had half a clue, he was an accountant and had some sort of a head for the numbers, but Aherne had none (on economics). The NPRF was an attempt to put something away in the good times and the Special Savings accounts an attempt to get people to put something away and this was a good thing in general. 

Decentralisation wasn't well implemented, it was spread too thinly and to a large extent it just drove up mileage expenses.

[muppet]

You've split the first point into two separate issues.
- Corruption/croneyism - where more of them should have gone to jail, or personally I think hitting them in the pocket would hurt them more, as that was their motivation. Hit them hard with fines and penalties and take away their govt pensions

- In running the economy, they absolutely did no different than any other party would have done. Never once did an opposition TD respond after a budget saying, we should increase taxes and/or reduce spending - in fact to a man/woman I'd say they all said the oppositive - you could have reduced more taxes, you could have spent more.

The only two "outside of the box" policies they came up with (that I can think of) were the National Pension Reserve Fund and the Decentralisation. NPRF was a good idea that was met with more groans than applause, but at least they stuck with it and pushed it through.

Decentralisation was a great idea to try and avoid the boom being too Dublin-centric. Things wouldnt have got quite so bad in provincial towns up and down the country if they'd had the backbone to go against the unions (and every other political party who rowed in with the unions) and implement it.

I think that McCreevey had half a clue, he was an accountant and had some sort of a head for the numbers, but Aherne had none (on economics). The NPRF was an attempt to put something away in the good times and the Special Savings accounts an attempt to get people to put something away and this was a good thing in general. 

Decentralisation wasn't well implemented, it was spread too thinly and to a large extent it just drove up mileage expenses.

I didn't like McCreevy but he was responsible for:

* Reducing the Corporate tax rate which is was an undoubted success whatever misgivings I might have
* National Pension Reserve Fund
* Fought for a single body (Central Bank) to provide oversight for the financial sector - Bertie split it on Harney's insistence with disastrous consequences.
* Decentralisation as mentioned by Hound above

As regards the unions. They do a lot of good work at ordinary worker level. Their main function is to protect jobs, advise employees of their rights and ensure fair rates of pay. Somehow that morphed into dictating national policy and taking as many seats on Qangos as possible. We had union leaders on the Board of Central Bank and as head of Fás. WFT? The unions need to get back to basics imho.

[macdanger2]

- In running the economy, they absolutely did no different than any other party would have done. Never once did an opposition TD respond after a budget saying, we should increase taxes and/or reduce spending - in fact to a man/woman I'd say they all said the oppositive - you could have reduced more taxes, you could have spent more.

TBF, that's opposition politics. In the same way, all opposition politicians are currently saying we wouldn't cut this or that, the reality is that if they were in power they would have to make cuts of some sort. Lets face it, we as an electorate are not going to get elect a party that says they're going to spend less or cut more.

The policies implemented by FF (particularly in terms of having the building of houses as a lynchpin of our economy / tax system) are theirs and theirs alone and the outcome/failure of those policies have to fall at FFs door.

Equally. the outcomes of the specific cuts (not the fact that cuts had to be made because the books had to be balanced regardless of who was in power) which have been made by the current govt are theirs and theirs alone.

[armaghniac]

TBF, that's opposition politics. In the same way, all opposition politicians are currently saying we wouldn't cut this or that, the reality is that if they were in power they would have to make cuts of some sort. Lets face it, we as an electorate are not going to get elect a party that says they're going to spend less or cut more.

If there is less, why should people not elect someone that will spend less.
I'd vote for anyone who wasn't lying.

[Rossfan]

TBF, that's opposition politics. In the same way, all opposition politicians are currently saying we wouldn't cut this or that, the reality is that if they were in power they would have to make cuts of some sort. Lets face it, we as an electorate are not going to get elect a party that says they're going to spend less or cut more.

I'd vote for anyone who wasn't lying.

Good luck with that Armaghniac

[macdanger2]

TBF, that's opposition politics. In the same way, all opposition politicians are currently saying we wouldn't cut this or that, the reality is that if they were in power they would have to make cuts of some sort. Lets face it, we as an electorate are not going to get elect a party that says they're going to spend less or cut more.

If there is less, why should people not elect someone that will spend less.
I'd vote for anyone who wasn't lying.

100% agree but let's face it, it's not what happens.

The electorate know they're being lied to during the election, elect the party who promises the most and then doesn't hold them to account when the next election comes around. It started with Jack Lynch in 1977 (?) and has pretty much been going on ever since, people don't want to hear the reality

[Farrandeelin]

So, Mícheál Martin is the most popular leader in the land (according to the latest opinion poll). Something I'd never have thought. Will FF join FG in a coalition after the GE if the numbers stack up I wonder?