Sinn Fein? They have gone away, you know.

[muppet]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/05/01/five-key-questions-and-answers-about-gerry-adams-arrest/

Gerry Adams, the leader of Sinn Fein and one of the key figures in the Northern Ireland peace process, has been arrested on suspicion of involvement in the murder some 40 years ago of Jean McConville, a widowed mother of 10. It's too early to say how, or indeed whether, he'll be charged, or how strong the evidence is against him. But this will certainly have important political repercussions. As an ersatz expert in Irish politics, (I'm from Ireland; I have a masters' degree in Irish politics) here's my take:

How important is Gerry Adams for Irish politics?
Not as important as he used to be. There have been widespread allegations that Adams played a leadership role in the IRA, and Ireland's prime minister, Enda Kenny, has challenged Adams to come clean on his past involvement in the organization. Sinn Fein, his political party, hasn't sought to bury its past relationship with the Irish Republican Army's terrorist campaign, but it hasn't heavily emphasized that association either. It's not a vote winner. Adams represents an older generation in Sinn Fein, which is plausibly an electoral liability in much of the Republic of Ireland. He has also been seriously damaged by the revelation last year that his brother, Liam Adams, sexually abused his 5-year-old daughter, and that he (Gerry Adams) knew about the abuse in 2000 and didn't report it until 2009.

What are the consequences for peace in Northern Ireland?
Very hard to say. A lot will depend on how Sinn Fein and the IRA (which is intimately associated with Sinn Fein) react. Under the peace agreement, large numbers of IRA prisoners were released. The status of those who had not been charged with crimes (and hence weren't prisoners at the time) was left ambiguous. However, Sinn Fein clearly believed that it had secured an effective commitment that the people who were responsible for these crimes would be left unprosecuted. If Sinn Fein pulls out of the government of Northern Ireland, it will immediately precipitate a political crisis. If the party just makes loud angry noises, the current power sharing arrangement will survive. For now, Sinn Fein is just making loud angry noises.

Adams isn't the first person with IRA ties to be arrested in connection with this murder: Ivor Bell, a former chief of staff on the IRA's army council, was charged last month with aiding and abetting the killing. And while Sinn Fein complained vociferously, it did not threatened to abandon its role in government over Bell's arrest. Adams is, of course, a much more visible figure, even if he is politically damaged. Outside observers used to allege that Sinn Fein's decisions were dictated by the IRA's army council. It will be interesting to observe what role the relicts of the IRA play in Sinn Fein's decision-making this time.

How will the Irish government react?
The Irish government will be concerned about maintaining political stability in Northern Ireland. It will not have any particular desire to help Gerry Adams, except insofar as it's necessary toward that end. First of all, Sinn Fein is a potent political threat to government parties in the Republic of Ireland, and was forecast to do well in the forthcoming local and European Parliament elections. Second, there has long been a hostile relationship between Fine Gael, the majority party in the Irish government, and Sinn Fein. The two parties have their origins in different sides on the Irish civil war; Fine Gael has always seen itself as the party of the Irish state and of law and order, while Sinn Fein until very recently saw itself as the sole true heir of an Irish republicanism that had been abandoned by southern Ireland. While the two parties have had to work together, because of Sinn Fein's role in power sharing in the Northern Ireland government, they do not like each other. Sinn Fein's presence as a political force on both sides of the border is usually a strength. This time around, it may be a liability.

How will this affect Sinn Fein's electoral prospects?
It will likely damage them in the Republic of Ireland. The McConville murder was one of the more sordid and brutal events of Northern Ireland's "Troubles." Although the IRA alleged that Jean McConville was an informer, others have suggested that her crime was merely to offer water to a wounded British soldier. Adams himself has described the murder as a "grievous injustice." Sinn Fein has worked quite successfully to reposition itself as an anti-economic austerity party, soft-pedaling its past connections to terrorism. This will remind voters that the past is not buried very deep. It is likely to have far less impact on likely Sinn Fein voters in Northern Ireland, who are effectively inured to past terrorist incidents.

What are the long term consequences for Irish politics?
If a broader crisis is averted, its most important consequence may be to rapidly accelerate a generational change in Sinn Fein. Younger politicians like Mary Lou McDonald, a member of the Irish Parliament, are better positioned to sell the party to Irish voters. Over the longer term, they may change Sinn Fein from a party dominated by its lingering association with terrorism to one with a broader left-wing agenda.

Henry Farrell
Henry Farrell is associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University. He works on a variety of topics, including trust, the politics of the Internet and international and comparative political economy. In addition to his academic work, he has written for Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the Financial Times, Democracy, the Washington Monthly and The American Prospect as well as other publications. He is on Twitter at @henryfarrell.

[trileacman]

Shinners pedalling their own BS here again.  I see they're organising a hunger strike rally in Dromore soon enough. They don't want to dwell on all of the past, just the bits that show them in a favourable light. Why is it so hard to acknowledge the heinous crime that was McConville's murder and work towards a resolution of the affair? Why be so petty as to belittle it by countering with a British murder?

[Nally Stand]

They don't want to dwell on all of the past, just the bits that show them in a favourable light.

Richard Hass would probably tell you otherwise.

[muppet]

They don't want to dwell on all of the past, just the bits that show them in a favourable light.

Richard Hass would probably tell you otherwise.

Yip, SF were in favour of proposals that addressed the past and unfortunately for everyone, the Unionists rejected them.

Hypothetically speaking, if (in the unlikely event that) Adams was found guilty of some charge associated with the Jean McConville murder, and if he got a custodial sentence, would he be eligible to apply for release under the GFA? I am guessing he would.

[Bensars]

They don't want to dwell on all of the past, just the bits that show them in a favourable light.

Richard Hass would probably tell you otherwise.

Yip, SF were in favour of proposals that addressed the past and unfortunately for everyone, the Unionists rejected them.

Hypothetically speaking, if (in the unlikely event that) Adams was found guilty of some charge associated with the Jean McConville murder, and if he got a custodial sentence, would he be eligible to apply for release under the GFA? I am guessing he would.

Said on radio earlier that Good friday arrangements/amnesties applied to events where information led the discovery of the dissappered.

In the Jean Mc Conville case although attempts were made to find the body , they never did and her body was  subsequently found by a walker, thus making those  arrangements/amnesties in this case no longer valid.

[EC Unique]

They don't want to dwell on all of the past, just the bits that show them in a favourable light.

Richard Hass would probably tell you otherwise.

Yip, SF were in favour of proposals that addressed the past and unfortunately for everyone, the Unionists rejected them.

Hypothetically speaking, if (in the unlikely event that) Adams was found guilty of some charge associated with the Jean McConville murder, and if he got a custodial sentence, would he be eligible to apply for release under the GFA? I am guessing he would.

Adams will be home for his tea tomorrow evening.

[orangeman]

Here comes the spin - did he mean to say reformers or informers ?

Sinn Féin's Martin McGuinness has claimed Gerry Adams' arrest is due to a "dark side" within policing conspiring with enemies of the peace process.

He added that the detention was a "deliberate attempt to influence the outcome of elections" in three weeks.

Mr Adams is being questioned about the 1972 murder of Jean McConville but has denied involvement in her death.

Prime Minister David Cameron said there had been "absolutely no political interference in this issue".

Northern Ireland First Minister Peter Robinson said it would be "political policing" if Mr Adams was not questioned.


'Dark side'

The Sinn Féin president remains in custody after presenting himself at Antrim police station on Wednesday evening.

Mr McGuinness, Northern Ireland's Deputy First Minister, told a press conference at Stormont that the arrest of his party leader and "friend" was politically motivated.

He claimed Sinn Féin had been told by "senior" and "reforming" figures within the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) that "there was still a dark side within policing here in the north of Ireland".


"I think we have seen that dark side flex its muscles in the course of the last couple of days," he added.

"We know who they are. The reformers know who they are," Mr McGuinness told reporters.


He said some former republicans who were "maliciously and vehemently hostile to the peace process" had been targeting Mr Adams and the Sinn Féin peace strategy for a considerable period of time.

"It is quite disappointing to see the efforts of those people now in consort with the dark side within policing," Mr McGuinness said.

Speaking to Irish broadcaster RTE before his arrest, Mr Adams said he was "innocent of any part" in the murder of Mrs McConville
However, Mr Robinson said the detention was proof that no-one in Northern Ireland was above the law.

"Is anybody going to say to me that if the police are aware of claims and evidence in relation to such a barbaric killing that it would be political policing for them to question those who have been suggested to have been involved?

"I would suggest to you that it would be political policing if the PSNI had not questioned those that were deemed to have been involved in any way," the DUP leader said.

"I cannot say whether Mr Adams will be charged or released, whether he will be held for a further period, whether even if charged he might be convicted .

"But what I can say is that it strengthens our political process in Northern Ireland for people to know that no-one is above the law - everyone is equal under the law and everyone is equally subject to the law."

[orangeman]

They don't want to dwell on all of the past, just the bits that show them in a favourable light.

Richard Hass would probably tell you otherwise.

Yip, SF were in favour of proposals that addressed the past and unfortunately for everyone, the Unionists rejected them.

Hypothetically speaking, if (in the unlikely event that) Adams was found guilty of some charge associated with the Jean McConville murder, and if he got a custodial sentence, would he be eligible to apply for release under the GFA? I am guessing he would.

Adams will be home for his tea tomorrow evening.

Will he not get fed in the canteen like the rest ?.

[Rossfan]

However, Mr Robinson said the detention was proof that no-one in Northern Ireland was above the law.

"Is anybody going to say to me that if the police are aware of claims and evidence in relation to such a barbaric killing that it would be political policing for them to question those who have been suggested to have been involved?

"I would suggest to you that it would be political policing if the PSNI had not questioned those that were deemed to have been involved in any way," the DUP leader said.

"I cannot say whether Mr Adams will be charged or released, whether he will be held for a further period, whether even if charged he might be convicted .

"But what I can say is that it strengthens our political process in Northern Ireland for people to know that no-one is above the law - everyone is equal under the law and everyone is equally subject to the law."

With the obvious exception British soldiers/agents/informers etc etc 

[orangeman]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gyx5g5L91tg

[Mike Sheehy]

Nally Stand. Lets be clear.

Gerry McCabe died protecting people from terrorist scumbags and Jean McConville was murdered by terrorist scumbags.

These are indisputable facts.

Who, exactly, the scumbags were is a matter for investigation. However, whoever they were, somebody did murder these people. Nothing you say will change that fact.

[trileacman]

The coloured lad in that video has a Nordie accent for some strange reason.

[michaelg]

The coloured lad in that video has a Nordie accent for some strange reason.

He ended up in Eastenders.

[stibhan]

So, it's been 24 hours? Any word?

[Farrandeelin]

So, it's been 24 hours? Any word?

You'd expect something by now all right.