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Messages - APM

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1
General discussion / Re: The next recession
« on: August 05, 2022, 01:17:50 PM »
I'm no economist, but the current rise in inflation, is it not being driven by supply chain issues (Brexit/Russian Oil/Gas) and Corporate greed rather than too much spending and not enough demand?

Raising the interest rates will have a huge impact on those with mortgages and may already feel squeezed by the prices of everything else going up and could lead to a lot of defaulting!

I struggle to see how that is going to reduce inflation.

Supply chains are part of the issue.

Another big factor is QE:
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/quantitative-easing


2
General discussion / Re: The next recession
« on: August 05, 2022, 10:52:36 AM »
The recession is not arriving in the 26 counties just yet. The unemployment rate has just fallen to its lowest level in 21 years in July at just 4.2pc and government revenue this July is up 19% on last year, a lot of this is corporation tax but income tax and vat are up also. No doubt there are people feeling some issues with price rises, but by historical standards these are the good times.

Inflation is the big problem! And in general, the cure for inflation involves recession and unemployment.  This is a global issue and the 26 will not be immune.

Should be added, the disruption of Brexit means that the UK is more exposed.

2.3%
The unemployment rate in Northern Ireland fell back to its record low in the first quarter of this year, official figures suggest. The rate in the period January to March was 2.3%, a statistically significant fall of 1.2 percentage points over the year.

I'd have thought unemployment has fallen in most places? There are loads of jobs available

Unemployment is very low.  We are almost at full-employment and in general, have been for the last few years and businesses across Western Europe and the West in general have been struggling with labour shortages, even before Covid.  Economies have been over-heating for some time and inflation has been building in the background as a result.  Don't think this is going to be pretty.   

3
General discussion / Re: The next recession
« on: August 05, 2022, 10:27:22 AM »
The recession is not arriving in the 26 counties just yet. The unemployment rate has just fallen to its lowest level in 21 years in July at just 4.2pc and government revenue this July is up 19% on last year, a lot of this is corporation tax but income tax and vat are up also. No doubt there are people feeling some issues with price rises, but by historical standards these are the good times.

Inflation is the big problem! And in general, the cure for inflation involves recession and unemployment.  This is a global issue and the 26 will not be immune.

Should be added, the disruption of Brexit means that the UK is more exposed. 

4
General discussion / Re: Boris Johnson
« on: August 01, 2022, 09:50:30 PM »
A Labour government has to get elected first.  You are right about Corbyn not being a radical.  Some of his policies were centrist.  However, Crorbyn had some policies that left him open ongoing attack from the press.  It wasn't just the rich that didn't accept his policies. Not enough people accepted his policies to get him elected and until Labour have a pragmatic leader in the mould of Blair, with the support of the party, who is prepared to compromise some principles to get elected so that other more critical policies can be advanced, Labour are going nowhere. 

The primary purpose of a political party is to get elected and drive change.  Too many Labour activists think they should be like the Greens - better out of power lobbying, than in power, taking responsibility.
The Labour performance was reasonable other than in the so-called Red Wall where the Tories won 40 seats from Labour for a majority of 80.
They won those seats because they focused on nationalism. They may lose them in the next election.
If Starmer wins, nothing will change. It'll be the same as FF in 2008 or Labour in 2011 or Greens now. Then the Lefties will get a turn. The analysis is still valid.

Even if they won the red wall seats they were still on a hiding to nothing.  There may be an element that with Scotland gone to SNP, Labour activists may be encouraged to put principle before success, because they probably feel that they will win nothing anyway, even with the red wall.   But Labour will not win an election unless they win over middle of the road voters and the English press will see to it that this won't happen with a left winger in charge.  Blair recognised this and secured the support of the Murdoch press, unsavoury as that may seem.  Unless there is a significant change in terms of UK press ownership / regulation etc, the only Labour leader I can see getting in will be a centrist.  Labour have a responsibility to see that this happens, because the Tories will do a lot of damage if they retain unfettered power. 

5
General discussion / Re: Boris Johnson
« on: August 01, 2022, 07:22:20 PM »
A Labour government has to get elected first.  You are right about Corbyn not being a radical.  Some of his policies were centrist.  However, Crorbyn had some policies that left him open ongoing attack from the press.  It wasn't just the rich that didn't accept his policies. Not enough people accepted his policies to get him elected and until Labour have a pragmatic leader in the mould of Blair, with the support of the party, who is prepared to compromise some principles to get elected so that other more critical policies can be advanced, Labour are going nowhere. 

The primary purpose of a political party is to get elected and drive change.  Too many Labour activists think they should be like the Greens - better out of power lobbying, than in power, taking responsibility. 



6
General discussion / Re: Boris Johnson
« on: August 01, 2022, 04:49:25 PM »
I am not convinced Starmer will be there in 2 years.
He is purging a lot of lefties. On the other hand how will they get lefties to vote Labour ?

Labour had to do this under Kinnock.  Appeasing the hard left will not get them elected - a lot of the Labour party activists it seems would be content to have their principles even if it mean permanent opposition to an increasingly strident and extremist Tory party.  It still took another 10 years after the 1987 General Election before Labour got in again. 


7
GAA Discussion / Re: Armagh v Galway AIQF
« on: July 02, 2022, 01:42:35 PM »
Yeah he will miss a game with much less significance. You would imagine itís PR tbh.(not a dig at Armagh - anyone in their position would do it)

I think Armagh did the right thing. However, it would be odd if the first league game was Armagh v Galway and Kelly played while Nugent did not

To be fair, Sean Kelly wouldn't miss the first game of the league anyway.  So Kelly could serve his suspension and play the first game of the league. 

Considering the broader issue of Armagh's involvement in these rows:
I think the county board need to be having a word with McGeeney & the players on this stuff. Not just because we're developing a reputation. There may be a time & place for this kind of thing in the development of a team (albeit in general it's not good, is it?).  However, we have got involved at the wrong time and wrong place where it done way more harm than good, getting involved in this crap. 

The only one where I would have any sympathy was in the Tyrone match, where Tyrone (and one player in particular) was the clear instigator and it suited Armagh to see the game out. 

Both melees against Donegal and Galway were particularly brainless and ultimately suited the opposition. 

8
GAA Discussion / Re: Armagh v Galway AIQF
« on: June 29, 2022, 11:35:52 AM »
How many penalties have Armagh missed in the last few years.  I would be surprised if we score any more than half the penalties we win.

From a quick search:
Rian O'Neill, Monaghan, 2022 NFL
Stefan Campbell missing v Tyrone, 2021 NFL
Jamie Clarke, Monaghan 2014, Louth 2015
Rory Grugan, Roscommon Qualifiers, 2018

9
GAA Discussion / Re: Armagh v Galway AIQF
« on: June 28, 2022, 04:42:24 PM »
Walsh is getting a fair bit of stick for that pass and rightly so but thought he played well without doing anything spectacular, nailed all the frees he should and scored one from a really difficult angle with his left that very few would make. He attracted a lot of attention and used that well at time by just keeping out of the way which created space for others which can be seen with McDaids goal when nobody tracking Mannion. He was definitely not right at that challenge in the first half, he didn't turn on the after burners all afternoon and was visibly hobbling on a few occasions.

Comer very good again although should have passed when he went for goal but suppose can understand given his record when given that opportunity. After the Mayo game all the talk was if you could stop Conroy, Comer & Walsh you'd beat Galway easily, doesn't look the case now.

Completely agree bar the afterburners. First half of extra time he gets the ball under the Cusack, burns Morgan on the outside and is pulled, and kicks the free from near the sideline. Won and kicked a free in similar circumstances when Galway were struggling in the first half. Considering he won the frees, how are they not as good as scores from play (he kicked a gorgeous one of those incidentally).

Considering how many late hits he shipped and the fact that every time he went on a run he had two lads converging on him, I thought he really stood up. The second goal came because he drew 3 players before shipping it off. Some near neighbors who've been defending Cillian o'Connors 3 all ireland finals scoreless from play for years seem to be taking delight in saying he went missing when its utter nonsense, he was trying to take too much responsibility if anything, aiding to that braindead moment at the end of normal time. Luckily he made up for it in ET and penalties

The point around Galway having 3 players and noone else mere weeks ago was hilarious. Before the Roscommon game it was all about Roscommon having 6 scoring forwards and Galway relying on 2. One of those forwards couldn't make his sigerson team while Finnerty and Tierney were two of the best players in the entire competition. Recency bias in GAA circles and media knows no bounds. McDaid and Finnerty will be the dangermen to watch for the next game despite most media having no idea who they were 4 weeks ago
Preach, the lack of quality coverage even from outlets such as OTB who should be looking for minutes to fill with in depth analysis is stark. They know about the teams that are there every year in finals, i.e. Dublin, Kerry, Mayo, Tyrone. Outside of that they haven't a clue, it's clichť city.
Particularly when you go to Division Two games all Spring and see how those second tier Division teams are then talked about for championship previews it's plain to see that they have not watched any video on those teams and have not done even cursory research. It's far worse for the lower Division teams of course.

I'm not denying it will be difficult, such is trial by social media nowadays...

His actions though will hopefully be acted on (gouging and entering field of play) and maybe discourage it going forward, I'll certainly be explaining to the captains on Wed night that if there is one melee the first ones in will not be getting "ah come on lads" attitude

We can't continue to have these all in type situations, I've had 4 games at football where this has happened this year, people getting worked up and taking things personal, the ball should be your only focus, we'll end up with a sanitised game to reduce the amount of flare ups we have. Now that would be shit viewing also.

I've only asked he get's what everyone else has received in the past, nothing more. Anything more would be unfair.

I think for this season he should get what others have received as this is not even the first instance of this in 2023. Another complete tr**p in McKinless is lining out and playing well for Derry all summer, he clearly eye gouged Sean Kelly in the league game, he missed one match from it.
The GAA should say that Tiernan Kelly is getting a one match ban (with perhaps some additional games because he wasn't part of the 26 and that makes it worse in that he shouldn't have been on the pitch at all) as per precedence and then move on from it, unlike McKinless who did it in a league game, Kelly did this in a high profile televised match and his reputation is already in the dirt from his - disgraceful - actions.

More importantly, they should outline how the current rulebook and disciplinary system is going to be overhauled. This should be done to ensure that egregious and dangerous incidents like gouging are going to result in one year bans from all GAA competition for the perpetrators. Disappointing to see the likes of Owen Mulligan making false equivalences online as if losing a tooth from a blow and losing an eye from a gouge are the same thing, eye gouging is the action of a sc**bag, plain and simple. We should be able to agree that in heated moments most have had the inclination to violently shove or even hit someone, anyone who says that eye gouging is the natural first reaction in one of these melees and somehow comparable to a thump, is wrong in my opinion.
If they want to get serious about the melees at inter county level and the farcical appeals process for lads who have clearly done something wrong, now is the time to do it but do not target Tiernan Kelly in some manner that is not in line with what you have done previously about these things.

I think this is a very fair assessment. 


10
GAA Discussion / Re: Armagh v Galway AIQF
« on: June 28, 2022, 03:50:26 PM »
Itís hard to know where to start with all of this. The game, the atmosphere, the experience has been talked to death. The better team won and thatís without doubt but we could have won also. Penalties an absolute lottery but until there is anything else they are what we have.

The melee and gougingÖ.the parties involved in how the melee started should be punished. I believe CP will have to make a point and punish both sides here but will they?  I suspect given the narrative being driven that Armagh will get heavier punishment, rightly or wrongly. TiarnŠn Kelly will get a heavy ban though anything beyond 6 months is excessive in my opinion. Look at what happened in previous gouging cases and then add some on as an aggravating factor given that he was not part of the match day squad. He should have been in the stands and thatís something that the GAA as a whole need to look at. The issue of the teams going into the same tunnel is a red herring. Responsibility for actions needs to be driven. Players, managers, officials all have a responsibility to act accordingly. Respect is not there and thatís probably increased by the tribal nature of the sport. This isnít Armagh alone and is not recent either but something needs to change.

Where to now for Armagh?  People will point to the wins against Donegal and Tyrone and say it was a good year. If you look though at the year itís played 11 between league and championship won 5, drew 1, lost 5. Beat Dublin who were on their holidays, Tyrone twice who were very poor, Kildare in the league who were relegated and are pretty poor and Donegal in a very good performance (albeit they looked like they were out on their feet). For all the seeming improvements we are as far away from a trophy as we have ever been in my opinion. People will point to injuries etc and they did play a factor but I genuinely donít see a team that has an identity, a structured plan. Itís very much off the hoof and hope for the best. Maybe thatís all that we can do but I suspect itís not. I think the best players more or less from the county are on the squad but I donít believe that the best is being brought out of them for a variety of reasons. Geezer will get another year and probably deserves it but that doesnít mean it is the right thing to do. I personally feel he has brought this team as far as he is capable of doing, kinda like the 2 Brianís in 2001, but now is time for change before the opportunity you a lost. There are too many good players there to miss another year.


Few comments on the game:
1. Agree that Galway deserved to win it.  Armagh didn't bring the same intensity to this match that they brought to the Tyrone and Donegal games.  Despite pressure on the short-kickouts, we had no turnovers.  I lost count of the number of times that Kealan Molloy was able to easily get away from the tackler. At the back, it felt like we weren't able to get a hand on Galway.  Perhaps it was the extra room in Croke Park, maybe Galway moved the ball better, but we didn't get hands on enough.  The intensity of the previous games wasn't there at times I felt. 

2. Game management - Why we allowed Galway the short-kick out in extra time after Jemar Hall's point, I don't know. They were able to work the ball into scorable positions all day long and we should have been contesting possession. 

3. The row - This suited Galway and was the last thing we needed going in after recovering from a 6 point deficit.  Galway should have been going in deflated, but instead I'll bet they were pumped by the time the fighting was over.  We have a tendancy to get involved in these pointless rows even though they are not in our interest.  The one in Donegal in the NFL was completely stupid given the Championship match around the corner.  Same on Sunday.  At some stage, management and co. board have to take responsibility for this.  It will be easy now for other teams to target Armagh given this developing reputation. 

4. Goalkeeper - On one score, I am somewhat pleased for McGeeney - the success of the Rafferty experiment.  The GK position was an issue throughout his tenure and it feels like he has went full circle following the massive (and unfair) criticism he took for starting Paul Courtney in nets in 2016.  He stuck to his principles and found someone to do the job the way he wanted. 

5. The Future - The manner of the defeat at the weekend sets them up well going into a new season - not unlike the defeats between 1999-2001, when they weren't that far away.  We will watch how Galway get on with interest. Kind of agree with you about McGeeney, but unlike the 2 Brians period, there isn't an obvious successor. We have a lot of talent at our disposal, but some of our vital cogs (Campbell (31), Grugan(31), Morgan(31), Forker (30) Shields (33)) are getting on. Given the lack of underage success and injuries, who knows if they will be replaced with players of equal quality? Will Campbell be able to have another year like this one? I therefore see Armagh having a short window of about 2 years to achieve any kind of success.  Co. Board facing a very difficult decision about McGeeney's future and my instinct is that he will be given another year. Honestly have no idea whether or not that is the right thing to do.

5. As a supporter, bringing young kids to the game, (melees excepted) it's been a memorable year.  Brings back memories of 1993 when we took Tyrone's scalp, had a famous, chaotic comeback and had serious building support.  While there was no silverware, and that is the ultimate benchmark, it is great to see us playing really attractive football in the top Division and competing at the top level.  It remains to be seen whether we can push on, but I'd say there are many supporters from across Ireland that would take the season that Armagh just had.  [EDIT] At the end of the day, I go to football matches to be entertained.  It is some time since I got the entertainment value that I got in Dublin on Sunday.

11
GAA Discussion / Re: Armagh v Galway AIQF
« on: June 28, 2022, 02:55:23 PM »
The social media pile on this one isnít arbitrary. It was the highest attended match of the year, broadcast live across the country. The perpetrator had no reason to be on the pitch, no reason to be touching distance of an opposing player. And then he delivered a truly filthy act, one with such potential for lifelong repercussions that it cannot be condoned by anyone.

As I say, not arbitrary. Not for this one.

https://www.sportsjoe.ie/gaa/kieran-donaghy-opens-up-on-how-close-he-was-to-eye-injury-after-philly-mcmahon-incident-45201

Did this not happen in an AIF?

Social media pile-ons are always arbitrary Wobbler.  They are completely uncontrolled and take on a life of their own and by the time the GAA get round to administering justice, the mob will have got their pound of flesh (whatever a pound of flesh may look like - arbitrary??).  The online mob is a fairly vindictive bunch.

Not every perpetrator of this offence suffers the same.  The same thing could happen in the semi-final, under slightly different circumstance and the mob mightn't mobilise at all.

12
GAA Discussion / Re: Armagh v Galway AIQF
« on: June 28, 2022, 02:37:54 PM »
There are GAA people talking about a lengthy ban (Sean Kelly) - others talked about the maximum -  which is 96 weeks I think?  Would it be fair to expect him not to appeal such a ban given the precedent with other players who received 2/3 match bans.  Albeit there was aggravating factors (shouldn't have entered the pitch - wasn't on match day 26).
What did he say? 96 weeks is a joke given players only get one match bans. 3 months would be absolutely loads tbh.

 Honestly think the ref needs to be made answer how he sent off Kelly and Nugent probably the 2 most innocent men there. Joke decision.

I think he intentionally sent them off as it would be overturned on appeal .. I think this was 'arranged' as there really wasn't that much complaining about it at the time..

The ban should be what it is endangering another player, there should also be a ban on entering the pitch, the county should also be fined for allowing a non named squad player on the side of the pitch, so the county sec will get pulled for that..

As for having good people around him, they should have been there before it started

Harsh!
The lad is young.  I'm not making excuses, but have there not been other such incidents (albeit without the additional factor of being a non-playing squad member) where there wasn't a media / social media pile on. 

Whatever about the GAA's punishment, this media / social media / political pile-on is a punishment in itself, which is completely arbitrary and has a much greater impact than any suspensions imposed by the GAA. He has become a focal point for the broken nature of the entire GAA disciplinary system.  Were people not seeking out his employer and calling for him to lose his job?   Did other perpetrators of the same offence suffer the same denouncement from the highest offices in the land when similar incidents happened previously in championship or league football?  Did TDs call for Garda investigations into those incidents?

The fault for the incident was much broader than this one player and the GAA have questions to answer too.   

Whatever the misdemeanor, the GAA has a responsibility to players also, in ensuring that the player receives some support in the wake of this media backlash, which absolutely no one can prepare him for. 

I appreciate that you are being genuinely critical of his actions, which is fair enough.  However, I think it's worth having some empathy in this instance also.  Imagine for one second that you were at the centre of one of these media / social media pile-ons. Imagine just how lonely a place that would be.

13
GAA Discussion / Re: Armagh v Galway AIQF
« on: June 28, 2022, 01:13:51 PM »
Someone mentioned 96 weeks on the radio, but I think it only refers to a player interfering with a match official for a second time, having already served a ban for doing so.

14
GAA Discussion / Re: Armagh v Galway AIQF
« on: June 28, 2022, 01:01:18 PM »
There are GAA people talking about a lengthy ban (Sean Kelly) - others talked about the maximum -  which is 96 weeks I think?  Would it be fair to expect him not to appeal such a ban given the precedent with other players who received 2/3 match bans.  Albeit there was aggravating factors (shouldn't have entered the pitch - wasn't on match day 26).


15
GAA Discussion / Re: Armagh v Galway AIQF
« on: June 28, 2022, 12:47:37 PM »
Good article by a previous eye-gouge perpetrator:
https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/rugby/arid-30482075.html

ďIt wasnít a conscious decision, I just grabbed anything I could"

And because he just grabbed anything he could he suffered for it, instead of not getting involved and letting the two lads get on with whatever shit they wanted to do he's now (rightly) going to have to take the flack that goes with his actions.

It makes no sense if two people want to go at each other let them... The manager says that at the start of the year and any fool who wants to 'separate' them is kicked off the panel. There is no defending it from any angle or quarter.

Bearing in mind Quinlan was 34 when this happened. 
Is he about 21/22?
I hope he has good people around him. 
The GAA need to remember that they have a responsibility to him also.   

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