A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[weareros]

Looking deeper into the Irish Times/IPSOS poll it's says only 57% of Sinn Fein voters in North and 34% of SDLP voters support Irish Unity. That seems shockingly low for nationalist parties. It could be a really bad sample by ipsos or have they bought into narrative that Ireland is a failed state with record homeless and health waiting list crisis, and economically they are better off in UK.

[armaghniac]

A lot of these people are not very tuned in and do not know that health waiting times are presently worse in the 6 counties.
SF have a narrative about Tories in London and Dublin and they ensure that there is no clamour for unity.
I'll hazard a guess that if SF get into government in the 26 that the services will improve greatly, according to them.

[Armagh18]

Probably the wrong thread for this question...but is/will there be a recession in the 26 while there's one in the 6? Thinking workwise in the new year?

Very possible. Hearing Dublin slowing up

[armaghniac]

Probably the wrong thread for this question...but is/will there be a recession in the 26 while there's one in the 6? Thinking workwise in the new year?

Very possible. Hearing Dublin slowing up

It depends on your business. There is not going to be a widespread recession in the South, but some sectors might fall back a bit.

[Rossfan]

Still helping the poor relations....

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2022/1205/1339934-shared-island/

[Applesisapples]

Only 55% of "NI Catholics" would vote for a UI
https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2022/12/03/poll-shows-northern-ireland-rejects-unity-by-large-margin/

This isn't really a surprise. Most people would say its at least 10 years too soon gor a vote on unity. And there is no discussion on how things will look in a UI. Health education tax the 3 big tickets.  With the NHS in a mess though it's no longer the Beacon it once was. People are cautious to make decisions that will hit them in the pocket.  Another thing with polls it all depends where the  poll was Done.

There's also the issue that people have lived in relative peace for almost 30 years now.  A transition to a United Ireland has some potential to upend that.  That could be a factor for some of the 45% in that poll.

The threat of loyalist violence may be a factor in maintaining the status quo. but people have to realise that after a vote in favour of a U.I. The police force which currently protects them will have been replaced by the Garda who will make being a loyalist paramilitary a less attractive position.

Exactly, I am broadly in favour of unity. However it has to include some way of mitigating against loyalist violence. it is easy to dismiss it but there is fear in loyalist circles misplaced as we might think it is, it still needs addressed. I also being of a certain age need certainty over the value of pensions and investments (modest) to see be through my  old age.

[general_lee]

Loyalism hasn't the capability to mobilise like in the 70s/80s or 90s as the failed flag protests and subsequent failed protocol protests have demonstrated. They're in the middle of what they would class a "constitutional crisis" and they've done next to f**k all. Loyalist paramilitaries are so caught up in their criminal exploits along with their "community worker" jobs that politics has taken a back seat for the last 20 years. Both the UVF and UDA are completely fractured and are more a collection of rival criminal gangs that happen to operate under the same banner. Their priorities lie in maintaining control of the drugs trade in their respective ghettos while also raising money through extortion, loan sharking, membership fees etc, all simply to line their own pockets. While they have some influence in the shape of the DUP (lol!) we all know how effective they are in achieving their political objectives. I wouldn't completely dismiss the threat posed as we edge closer to a border poll, but it is one that should be easily eliminated should it emerge.

[Tubberman]

Seems the bigger threat to unity comes from indifferent "nationalists" who would have previously have been considered a definite Yes to Unity vote.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

Seems the bigger threat to unity comes from indifferent "nationalists" who would have previously have been considered a definite Yes to Unity vote.

Which is crazy when you think about it. Would rather live with the DUP still pulling the strings, a Tory government who don't give a flying f@ck and pretend to themselves that the NHS is amazing and that their pension will be taken away from them if they leave the UK. It's like they  listen to what Bryson, Sammy Wilson etc say and then believe it ffs.

[balladmaker]

Seems the bigger threat to unity comes from indifferent "nationalists" who would have previously have been considered a definite Yes to Unity vote.

Which is crazy when you think about it. Would rather live with the DUP still pulling the strings, a Tory government who don't give a flying f@ck and pretend to themselves that the NHS is amazing and that their pension will be taken away from them if they leave the UK. It's like they  listen to what Bryson, Sammy Wilson etc say and then believe it ffs.

This is the point I find so shocking ... who in their right mind would want to maintain the current status quo in the union.  I wonder what % of catholics have a civil service job in the north, I'd expect those to possibly have a reason to be cautious of constitutional change ... but there's obviously a lot more at play in this survey outside of civil service jobs.

[grounded]

Still helping the poor relations....

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2022/1205/1339934-shared-island/

Keep that Euro comin, good lad. Badly needed

[Snapchap]

Yesterdays poll appears to be something of a outlier to say the least. How can support for unity in the north be at 26% if every other poll taken in the past two years has support at between 30%-43%, and averaging at 36%? No doubt Ipsos are a reputable agency, but surely when one result is just so far out from every other poll, it's casts a reasonable doubt. The most accurate polling agency at elections, almost almost without fail, has been Lucid Talk and in their five polls on Unity in the last two years, the support in the north has been found to be 42%, 43%, 42% and 41%. I find 26% to be more than hard to believe.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

Face to face was it not? which puts it on a par with nilt for being rubbish. Unfortunately these duff polls will still be used to determine whether a referendum is needed or not.

[trailer]

Just because we don't like the outcome we cannot discard these polls. Lots of work needs to be done, even to convince SF voters.

[Snapchap]

Just because we don't like the outcome we cannot discard these polls. Lots of work needs to be done, even to convince SF voters.

Nobody is suggesting any poll can be/should be/could be "discarded". Simply making the point that in terms of support for unity, the findings of this specific poll are so far removed from the finding of every other poll for the past two years, that it's findings can, at the very least, be taken with a large pinch of salt. particularly so when the historically most accurate polling company found support for unity to be at 41% in the most recent poll before this one. Anyone who thinks there has been a swing of 15% in that time needs to get their head looked at.