Cavan v Fermanagh, Ulster champ 1st rd

[FermPundit]

There are a couple of reasons Cavan people are a little bit more confident of beating Fermanagh than perhaps they should be..
- Historically we have an excellent record against them, Fermanagh have never beaten us in Ulster. Mentaly that has an effect.
- Fermanagh are not a team to really hammer someone, their games are normally close. Once a game is close you're always in with a shout.
Fermanagh are a more experienced, hardened team with a strong work ethic and are mentally quite strong. I think Cavan might have more naturally gifted footballers but have questionable commitment, work rate and mental strength. If we can match Fermanagh for fight and effort we'll have a decent chance.

Fermanagh have a awful championship record against Down but it didn't stop them beating them on Sunday. In fact historically Fermanagh have a poor record against most of the teams in Ulster. Although Fermanagh defeated Cavan in their last championship meeting (2003), history and records mean nothing in these games. It all comes down to the day and who wants it the most.

[FermGael]

what sort of state is Breffini in???
I was at a match in it 2 months ago and the surface was not great.
Any improvement??

[boojangles]

what sort of state is Breffini in???
I was at a match in it 2 months ago and the surface was not great.
Any improvement??

You can be assured that Breifne will be in top shape come June 6th.I have rarely played on a bad surface in Breifne,especially not at Championship time.

[mylestheslasher]

There are a couple of reasons Cavan people are a little bit more confident of beating Fermanagh than perhaps they should be..
- Historically we have an excellent record against them, Fermanagh have never beaten us in Ulster. Mentaly that has an effect.
- Fermanagh are not a team to really hammer someone, their games are normally close. Once a game is close you're always in with a shout.
Fermanagh are a more experienced, hardened team with a strong work ethic and are mentally quite strong. I think Cavan might have more naturally gifted footballers but have questionable commitment, work rate and mental strength. If we can match Fermanagh for fight and effort we'll have a decent chance.

Fermanagh have a awful championship record against Down but it didn't stop them beating them on Sunday. In fact historically Fermanagh have a poor record against most of the teams in Ulster. Although Fermanagh defeated Cavan in their last championship meeting (2003), history and records mean nothing in these games. It all comes down to the day and who wants it the most.

The point I was trying to make is that Cavan have no mental baggage about playing Fermanagh. They do about Derry, Tyrone and to a lesser extent Armagh. When we play these teams we are normally bet before we start. I am in no way belittling the ability of Fermanagh. I think they are a fine team and are not getting the credit they deserve for what they have done over the past 4-5 years.

[Emmett]

This will be a very tough game for Fermanagh. We are slight favourites going into the game and that never sits well with us. There should be a fairly good crowd at it, assuming it won't be televised. Cavan will come out all guns blazing and if they get a good early start then we could be in trouble. Hopefully our experience over the last few years can see us through though. Some good news for Fermanagh is the fact that Womble has returned to these shores in the last 24 hours and will be rejoining the panel very shortly.  This will give us some extra cover in midfield and should mean that Blobby won't have to be moved from FF. Looking forward to this game moreso than the Down game, I was very apprehensive in the build up to that game.

[mylestheslasher]

This will be a very tough game for Fermanagh. We are slight favourites going into the game and that never sits well with us. There should be a fairly good crowd at it, assuming it won't be televised. Cavan will come out all guns blazing and if they get a good early start then we could be in trouble. Hopefully our experience over the last few years can see us through though. Some good news for Fermanagh is the fact that Womble has returned to these shores in the last 24 hours and will be rejoining the panel very shortly.  This will give us some extra cover in midfield and should mean that Blobby won't have to be moved from FF. Looking forward to this game moreso than the Down game, I was very apprehensive in the build up to that game.

I believe the game is live on rte.

[Caid]

Methodology
- We all know that modern day managers love to pour over statistics to enhance performance and Malachy appears to be the master of identifying other team's strengths and weaknesses and exploiting that knowledge to maximum potential. 
- The analysis below summarises the performance of both teams in this years National League and the conclusions that Malachy is likely to reach following said analysis

Cavan analysis
- 63% of Cavan's scores came from dead balls/frees in the NFL (scored mainly by Johnston (50%), Pierson (24%) and Martin Reilly (21%))
- 56% of all of Cavan's scores came from three players (Johnston (32%), Pierson (12%) and Martin Reilly (12%))
- Seanie Johnston scored 21% of all of the scores Cavan got from open play whilst Larry Reilly got 11%.  In total 19 different players scored in the league
- Cavan averaged 13 points a game whilst Seanie Johnston averaged 4 points a game and Ger Pierson 5.5 points a game in the two games he played (although as noted around half of these were from placed balls)
- Cavan conceded on average 13.4 points a game
- Cavan won two out of their three home games scoring an average of 12 points and conceding an average of 9 points

Fermanagh analysis
- Only 29% of Fermanagh's scores came from frees in the NFL (scored mainly by Daryl and O'Brien)
- Moreover, of the scores scored against Fermanagh only 29% came from placed balls
- Fermanagh's highest scorers from play in the league were Ferris (9), Sherry (6), Wee Man (6) and O'Brien, Carson and Macsy (5) with the scores shared amongst 16 squad members
- Fermanagh scored an average of 12.4 points per game and conceded 15.1 points
- In away games Fermanagh won 1 and drew 1 out of 4 scoring 13.3 points on average and conceding 15.3 points

Summary
- Cavan are heavily reliant on scoring frees to win games
- Fermanagh do not concede many frees (or at least frees in scoreable positions) as evidenced throughout the league and against Down
- The much lauded Seanie Johnston scored the majority of his scores from frees (3 points from play against Louth, two from play in three other games and one from play in three other games).  Shane Goan has done effective man marking jobs on some of the best forwards in Ireland and can hold Johnston to a few scores from play, whilst Niall Bogue could pick up Pierson
- Fermanagh scored seven goals in seven league games whilst Cavan only scored two (both goals in the first six minutes against a Louth team which struggled past Carlow)

Conclusion
- Cavan 0-9 Fermanagh 1-9
- Man of the match: Tommy McElroy
- Fermanagh scorers: Daryl Keenan 1-1, R Carson 0-2, C McElroy 0-1, T McElroy 0-1, J Sherry 0-1, R Keenan 0-1, E Maguire 0-1, S O'Brien 0-1

Key message
- Fermanagh have been much maligned by the media for not having a "seven point a game" forward.  However, whilst having a good freetaker would be beneficial, it is not critical as Fermanagh is no longer reliant on scores from placed balls 
- Having such a good defence (and man markers and the sweeper system) means that we are well placed to play against teams that are overly reliant on one or two key men for scores (e.g. McDonnell/Clarke, Bradley/Bradley, Tommy Freeman) and even more so against teams that rely on handy frees for scores
- To this end the referee selected will also have a key role to play

[ExiledGael]

Is that your own work Caid? Good stuff but the Ulster Championship usually makes a mockery of statistics and predictions.
Great news about Womble if true? Assume he's some way off fitness though.

[FermPundit]

Good piece of analysis, Caid. Some interesting stats there as well. Have you already sent this to Malachy??

[Caid]

This will give us some extra cover in midfield and should mean that Blobby won't have to be moved from FF.

This is fantastic news - although he won't start against Cavan.  Hopefully he can get a few games in for Derrylin soon

[FermPundit]

Is that your own work Caid? Good stuff but the Ulster Championship usually makes a mockery of statistics and predictions.
Great news about Womble if true? Assume he's some way off fitness though.

All evidence points to a Fermanagh win. I'm not sure if that's a good thing or not!

[Caid]

Womble seems to have deleted his Bebo profile over the last few weeks.  Maybe Malachy was trying to do this on the sly and Emmett has let the cat out of the bag?!

[FermPundit]

This will be a very tough game for Fermanagh. We are slight favourites going into the game and that never sits well with us. There should be a fairly good crowd at it, assuming it won't be televised. Cavan will come out all guns blazing and if they get a good early start then we could be in trouble. Hopefully our experience over the last few years can see us through though. Some good news for Fermanagh is the fact that Womble has returned to these shores in the last 24 hours and will be rejoining the panel very shortly.  This will give us some extra cover in midfield and should mean that Blobby won't have to be moved from FF. Looking forward to this game moreso than the Down game, I was very apprehensive in the build up to that game.

Great news about Womble but James Sherry was very impressive against Down so I really hope Malachy doesn't start to move him around the forward line to accomodate Womle's return. James Sherry never was and never will be a forward. Midfield is his best position!

[FermGael]

Some good news for Fermanagh is the fact that Womble has returned to these shores in the last 24 hours and will be rejoining the panel very shortly.  This will give us some extra cover in midfield and should mean that Blobby won't have to be moved from FF. Looking forward to this game moreso than the Down game, I was very apprehensive in the build up to that game.

Is this confirmed Emmett??
I thought he was headin to Boston for the summer???

[imtommygunn]

Who to non fermanagh posters is womble?? The name rings a bell but can't think who it is...