Scottish independence referendum thread

[Lar Naparka]

I see they're only going to stand in the List oart of the election  so won't be splitting the votes in the Constituency part.

Hopefully things will go as per this Opinion poll
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19188728.snp-track-secure-majority-voters-put-trust-nicola-sturgeon/

Ross, I know as much about the Scottish referendum movement as sid does about the Irish Civil War so, as always, I turn to you for guidance.
List vs Constituency??
Can you please enlighten an ignoramus?

In Scotland they don't use STV multi-seat constituencies for the parliament although they do for the local councils.
The lists is a party list and is used to balance things up. So the Greens might not come first in any constituency, but a lot of people might support them and since they didn't win any constituency seats they would get a few on the list.

In the case of Salmond's new Alba party, if he ran in constituencies then he might split the nationalist vote and some Tory or Lib Dem might get in instead. But in the list it is multi seat and you could vote for the SNP guy in the constituency and plump for Alba on the list.

Thanks very much. I get the idea now.

Although it is complicated further by splitting of the list vote, dependent on how many constituency MSPs are returned for that party. This means if a party sweeps the board in the constituency vote, their list vote may be diluted. Theory is this prevents one party winning a big majority unless they have a massive percentage of the vote. So in some areas, if you vote SNP, for example, it may be better giving your list vote to another party.

The process seems pretty complicated. How has it worked in practice? I assume it has been used in previous elections.

[ned]

I see they're only going to stand in the List oart of the election  so won't be splitting the votes in the Constituency part.

Hopefully things will go as per this Opinion poll
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19188728.snp-track-secure-majority-voters-put-trust-nicola-sturgeon/

Ross, I know as much about the Scottish referendum movement as sid does about the Irish Civil War so, as always, I turn to you for guidance.
List vs Constituency??
Can you please enlighten an ignoramus?

In Scotland they don't use STV multi-seat constituencies for the parliament although they do for the local councils.
The lists is a party list and is used to balance things up. So the Greens might not come first in any constituency, but a lot of people might support them and since they didn't win any constituency seats they would get a few on the list.

In the case of Salmond's new Alba party, if he ran in constituencies then he might split the nationalist vote and some Tory or Lib Dem might get in instead. But in the list it is multi seat and you could vote for the SNP guy in the constituency and plump for Alba on the list.

Thanks very much. I get the idea now.

Although it is complicated further by splitting of the list vote, dependent on how many constituency MSPs are returned for that party. This means if a party sweeps the board in the constituency vote, their list vote may be diluted. Theory is this prevents one party winning a big majority unless they have a massive percentage of the vote. So in some areas, if you vote SNP, for example, it may be better giving your list vote to another party.

The process seems pretty complicated. How has it worked in practice? I assume it has been used in previous elections.

It was brought in at inception of Scottish parliament, I think. Not quite proportional representation like Stormont. Idea was to prevent a scenario like UK parliament where one party can have just over 40% of the vote but still have a sizeable majority of MPs. Has kind of backfired with the rise of the SNP and the Yes/No division. It probably needs tweaked but not sure what to.

[Rossfan]

You get 2 ballot papers, 1 for the constituency with the candidates names and you can only vote for 1 of them.
The second one is for a region (7 regions of 8 seats or 8 of 7) and you vote 1 and 2 for parties.
You can vote 1 and 2  for the same Party.
I'm not sure what they do with the number 2s but they seem to allocate the regional seats on a low to high constituency seats won basis.
It means over 40% of MSPs  aren't actually elected.

[John Egans left boot]

It's a win- win situation for salmond and his new gang, another disciplined gained this morning with the possibility of Joanna cherry coming over in the next couple of daysCjerry will be a huge lose to the SNP intellectually.


If they (Alba) get 1 or 2 elected it will be an achievement and the SNP will be fuming, If they don't well they may well take vital votes off the SNP

Whether you like salmond or not, or agree with him or not,  politically he took the SNP away for a vile secretarian party  on the same lines as the DUP in the 1970s etc to something more inclusive in the 1980 onwards

Many Irish catholics voted for labour due to this. O ne could argue this element of dirt within the SNP has now moved onto the Scottish tories. The Kirk of the Church of Scotland and the Ma asons are alive and well within the tories Fact!!

[ned]

If Scotland becomes independent the SNP is done anyway. It's too broad a spectrum of ideas to survive beyond independence.

[Rossfan]

I suspect they'd be happy to break up in such circumstances

[APM]

It's a win- win situation for salmond and his new gang, another disciplined gained this morning with the possibility of Joanna cherry coming over in the next couple of daysCjerry will be a huge lose to the SNP intellectually.


If they (Alba) get 1 or 2 elected it will be an achievement and the SNP will be fuming, If they don't well they may well take vital votes off the SNP

Whether you like salmond or not, or agree with him or not,  politically he took the SNP away for a vile secretarian party  on the same lines as the DUP in the 1970s etc to something more inclusive in the 1980 onwards

Many Irish catholics voted for labour due to this. O ne could argue this element of dirt within the SNP has now moved onto the Scottish tories. The Kirk of the Church of Scotland and the Ma asons are alive and well within the tories Fact!!

The funny thing is, it will probably be good for the independence movement to have a choice of parties. 

[ned]

It's a win- win situation for salmond and his new gang, another disciplined gained this morning with the possibility of Joanna cherry coming over in the next couple of daysCjerry will be a huge lose to the SNP intellectually.


If they (Alba) get 1 or 2 elected it will be an achievement and the SNP will be fuming, If they don't well they may well take vital votes off the SNP

Whether you like salmond or not, or agree with him or not,  politically he took the SNP away for a vile secretarian party  on the same lines as the DUP in the 1970s etc to something more inclusive in the 1980 onwards

Many Irish catholics voted for labour due to this. O ne could argue this element of dirt within the SNP has now moved onto the Scottish tories. The Kirk of the Church of Scotland and the Ma asons are alive and well within the tories Fact!!

The funny thing is, it will probably be good for the independence movement to have a choice of parties.

It is, as voting SNP 1 and 2 for list dilutes their vote in some regions. In some cases should be SNP and Green 1 or 2 for pro independence. Wouldn't vote Salmond and Alba as he is an egotistical opportunist as much as the worst of the Tory twats.

[John Egans left boot]

Nicola is the issue Ned. I respect your views and want an independent Scotland but she's one bollocks as much as he is get the pair of them to feck and get cherry (from Irish stock too ) in there Johnston will **** himself with her about before an article 30 declaration

[John Egans left boot]

Just to add been researching an article 30 and ways around it ..

This is going to go to the UK supreme court for a ruling (top 2 judges are currently Scottish as well)

SNP will try push through an independence bill, if there is a majority in Scottish Parliament then real fun and games times altogether.  The Unwritten UK constitution and all that Democracy v the rule of law, parliamentary sovereignty and all that as well. A political issue solved by a legal view 

Hopefully David Mc Keown can share his insight on this for us.

Board members should keep an eye on Aidan O Neill ( Nationalist at heart) pound  for pound the finest lawyer on these islands currently 

[Main Street]

It's a win- win situation for salmond and his new gang, another disciplined gained this morning with the possibility of Joanna cherry coming over in the next couple of daysCjerry will be a huge lose to the SNP intellectually.


If they (Alba) get 1 or 2 elected it will be an achievement and the SNP will be fuming, If they don't well they may well take vital votes off the SNP

Whether you like salmond or not, or agree with him or not,  politically he took the SNP away for a vile secretarian party  on the same lines as the DUP in the 1970s etc to something more inclusive in the 1980 onwards

Many Irish catholics voted for labour due to this. O ne could argue this element of dirt within the SNP has now moved onto the Scottish tories. The Kirk of the Church of Scotland and the Masons are alive and well within the tories Fact!!

We know that one, they serve their Mason apprenticeship as SPL referees.

[armaghniac]

Scots pulling back from independence, although they may be waiting for new plan to emerge post election at this stage.

Scottish independence voting intention:

Yes: 42% (-2)
No: 49% (+1)

via
@SavantaComRes
, 23 - 27 Apr
Chgs. w/ 20 Apr

[John Egans left boot]

Scots pulling back from independence, although they may be waiting for new plan to emerge post election at this stage.

Scottish independence voting intention:

Yes: 42% (-2)
No: 49% (+1)

via
@SavantaComRes
, 23 - 27 Apr
Chgs. w/ 20 Apr

Not at all doubting your sources but there will be some spin flying about with MI5 etc involved over the next 2/3 months around Indy referendum 2 alot of fake news. John Curtise poll retweeted by Ns yesterday or Tuesday currently shows nationalist as in the SNP about 2  points off a single party majority but with greens and Alba will have around 4/5 seats to spare in pro Independence alliance majority that will give the bold Boris something to digest

[seafoid]

If Scotland becomes independent the SNP is done anyway. It's too broad a spectrum of ideas to survive beyond independence.

Same as the original SF

If independence happens the unionist parties will become irrelevant

[Rossfan]

So far
SNP 21 seats
Lib Dem 3
Rest 0.
Some pundits predicting SNP won't make the overall majority.