Scottish independence referendum thread

[bennydorano]

Alaistair Campbell

I hold no candle for the @theSNP and the Salmond-Sturgeon story is clearly important and newsworthy. But my God compare and contrast the right wing media and @BBCNews coverage with the comparative lack thereof of @SuellaBraverman re Cummings, @pritipatel breach min code ... 1/2

.. the entire govt prepared to break law Re N Ireland/Brexit and @MattHancock found to have broken law but said it was ok cos he was in a hurry. I know @afneil has a dog in this fight but if there is a 'Banana Republic' right now it stems from London 2/2

[bennydorano]

Scottish independence voting intention (excl. undecideds):

Yes: 49% (-2)
No: 51% (+2)

via @YouGov, 04 - 08 Mar
Chgs. w/ Nov 2020
https://t.co/C4sCofH2RJ

All their hard work starting to pay off

[armaghniac]

Scottish independence voting intention (excl. undecideds):

Yes: 49% (-2)
No: 51% (+2)

via @YouGov, 04 - 08 Mar
Chgs. w/ Nov 2020
https://t.co/C4sCofH2RJ

All their hard work starting to pay off

This is lower figure for independence than in recent months, this reflects London making sure the split between Salmond and Sturgeon is well publicised.

[balladmaker]

Scottish independence voting intention (excl. undecideds):

Yes: 49% (-2)
No: 51% (+2)

via @YouGov, 04 - 08 Mar
Chgs. w/ Nov 2020
https://t.co/C4sCofH2RJ

All their hard work starting to pay off

This is lower figure for independence than in recent months, this reflects London making sure the split between Salmond and Sturgeon is well publicised.

Dirty business, and what else should we expect from an English government under pressure. 

[Rossfan]

We'd have a fair few centuries of experience anyway.
Hopefully by Election time Bozo will have the waverers back in the SNP/Independence camp.

[armaghniac]

We'd have a fair few centuries of experience anyway.
Hopefully by Election time Bozo will have the waverers back in the SNP/Independence camp.

Perhaps you  could have an alternate dirty tricks campaign and organise a big save the union meeting with Sammy Wilson as key speaker, maybe Gregory Campbell as well to get the non white folks interested.

[seafoid]

Scottish independence voting intention (excl. undecideds):

Yes: 49% (-2)
No: 51% (+2)

via @YouGov, 04 - 08 Mar
Chgs. w/ Nov 2020
https://t.co/C4sCofH2RJ

All their hard work starting to pay off

This is lower figure for independence than in recent months, this reflects London making sure the split between Salmond and Sturgeon is well publicised.

Psy ops but Brexit is hammering  UK manufacturing and food processing
Loads of jobs will.be lost pointlessly in Scotland because of something they did not vote for

[weareros]

London's found 3 weak spots: the leader/ex leader feud (Celts always gift some in-frightening), the Catalan contradiction with EU, the EU slow vaccine rollout - another Gift to Brexit Britain. Expect these to be continuously hammered in media - to make the Scots think again, as their anthem goes.

[armaghniac]

However, in the Brexit campaign people became aware of EFTA and Scotland would fit in well in EFTA even if there was a delay in joining the EU.

[John Egans left boot]

Currently I think the SNP are now in a seriously difficult position in 3 ways:

(1)They had the voters for an SNP majority at Holyrood - but probably don't now.

I have spoken to at least 3 staunch SNP voters (1960s onwards), anti Salmond, but feel they have lost trust in the leadership and are turning to the Greens, or abstaining, or the new ISP and other minor parties (yes they are pro independence parties) but an SNP majority would stick some mustard on the sandwich for the Tories to think carefully about. A coalition (especially with crooked Nicola about) could fall at any time. On top of this the anti independence alliance is in full swing with labour and the Tories set to take vital seats in East Lothian and possibly Perthshire. These are so small margins that the Salmond incident has without a doubt impacted on the vote.

(2) The SNP internally is a mess

At the last party conference the Pro Salmond/Cherry group won the popular vote for the party executive/ officer board. Nicola and her husband are now controlled by an anti Nicola officer board.  Joanna Cherry is very cunning right now. I think legally she is bright, but the people she associated herself with, Exept Aidan o Neill, are secret Tories at the top of the legal establishment. I really feel Nicola fears Cherry in everyway! The SNP front bench at Holyrood is clueless. Nicola, fair play to her, has surrounded herself with politicians/ ministers that are not up to it, so she comes out looking good and none of them can challenge her.  The Education portfolio  doesn't make good reading at all for the SNP. She (Nicola) of course will get a bump of her own personal popularity and her handling of Covid. But to summarise the SNP membership on Glasgow's South Side compared to say the SNP in Edinburgh South West or in Cowdenbeath/ Fife are pulling in completely different directions.

(3) Article 30

Forget about talk on currency (the SNP still haven't got to grips with) and other issues. There is only one issue in town for an SNP majority, coalition, or minority government, Article 30. Cherry is the only one actively seeking ways around this. When you look at home and the work of Irelands Future (whether you agree with it or not) some great work is  being done on discussing key issues and how they play out, avenues are being explored and researched, nothing like that is happening in Scotland.


Nicola is on her final parliamentary journey:

(1) SNP internally is split - Any reluctant towards the calling of a second referendum will not be accepted as they (SNP Membership) will move against her.
(2) If it is called and Tories refuse it (which they will) people will question why no work was done to find other avenues over the last 2/3 years around article 30.
(3) Lastly if one is called and the SNP loses Nicola will off course rightly carry the can.

The rise of the SNP from the early 1980s has been a journey worth visiting - but the more I reflect on things, posters here are pretty much on the money. The tactic that has always worked for the British government divide and conquer is working again. Scotland is politically divided yes, but it is the SNP divide that will finish Nicola and the SNP. 

Just some thoughts on a Friday evening after the first week of a no majority to  independence in god knows how long.

PS I would still love to see independence.

[Main Street]

However, in the Brexit campaign people became aware of EFTA and Scotland would fit in well in EFTA even if there was a delay in joining the EU.

The EEA would be stronger body, it's much more aligned with the EU regulation and economic market.  3 of the 4 EFTA countries are in the EEA.

[seafoid]

London's found 3 weak spots: the leader/ex leader feud (Celts always gift some in-frightening), the Catalan contradiction with EU, the EU slow vaccine rollout - another Gift to Brexit Britain. Expect these to be continuously hammered in media - to make the Scots think again, as their anthem goes.

The underlying support for independence is more important than SNP internal politics.
The 2014 referendum was supposed to put the issue to bed for 30 years . Then Brexit happened.
In Ireland there was no going back after the 1916 leaders were executed.

[armaghniac]

However, in the Brexit campaign people became aware of EFTA and Scotland would fit in well in EFTA even if there was a delay in joining the EU.

The EEA would be stronger body, it's much more aligned with the EU regulation and economic market.  3 of the 4 EFTA countries are in the EEA.

Switzerland also follows most of the measures of the EEA. The EU will not allow such an à la carte approach again as it is messy, so if Scotland joins EFTA than it would also be joining the EEA.

[Main Street]

However, in the Brexit campaign people became aware of EFTA and Scotland would fit in well in EFTA even if there was a delay in joining the EU.

The EEA would be stronger body, it's much more aligned with the EU regulation and economic market.  3 of the 4 EFTA countries are in the EEA.

Switzerland also follows most of the measures of the EEA. The EU will not allow such an à la carte approach again as it is messy, so if Scotland joins EFTA than it would also be joining the EEA.

No, it does not follow that an EFTA member automatically joins EEA.

[bennydorano]

David Davis stood in the HOC yesterday (under Parliamentary privilege) Reading out text messages related to the Salmond-Sturgeon from a 'whistle-blower'.