Scottish independence referendum thread

Started by deiseach, September 07, 2014, 11:36:16 AM

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If you have/had a vote, how will/would you vote?

Yes
122 (87.8%)
No
17 (12.2%)

Total Members Voted: 139

Voting closed: September 18, 2014, 11:36:16 AM

AZOffaly

I think a referendum like this would have to be well ahead in preliminary polls for it to be actually carried. It's a huge change, and would need a lot of residual support to get it through the last minute wavering and the cold feet.

I suspect 56-44 to the No side.

Hardy

I heard some media analyst on Newstalk this morning saying that social media have been much closer to the actual outcome than the market research polls in the last referendum here and that based on volume of tweets, Twitter is predicting a Yes outcome.

AZOffaly

Who tweets? Younger ones. Who would be more inclined to vote to keep the status quo? I'd guess older ones. We'll just have to see I suppose. Any exit polls or anything like that?

Feckitt

Quote from: Hardy on September 18, 2014, 11:20:41 AM
I heard some media analyst on Newstalk this morning saying that social media have been much closer to the actual outcome than the market research polls in the last referendum here and that based on volume of tweets, Twitter is predicting a Yes outcome.

The last few Irish referendums have had zero interest outside of Ireland, so you are looking at Irish tweets and FB messages only.  However the Scottish referendum has had huge interest outside of Scotland, and most Irish people for example would be urging a yes vote.  This could skew the social media figures.  I hope I'm wrong though and that Hardy's man is right!

AZOffaly

Paddy Power has No at 5/1 on. Yes is 7/2.

Feckitt

What time tonight should the TV stations be able to call it one way or another.  They keep talking about the result being about 5 or 6 Friday morning but if I stay up, will i get a pretty clear idea by midnight?  1.00?  2am?

Hardy

Quote from: AZOffaly on September 18, 2014, 11:24:42 AM
Who tweets? Younger ones. Who would be more inclined to vote to keep the status quo? I'd guess older ones. We'll just have to see I suppose. Any exit polls or anything like that?

Yeah - he went into all that and still came down on the Yes side.

I was wondering about exit polls. I don't think the media are allowed to publish exit polls until after voting. But what would stop RTÉ from publishing one? They're not subject to UK law.

AZOffaly

Quote from: Hardy on September 18, 2014, 11:28:37 AM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 18, 2014, 11:24:42 AM
Who tweets? Younger ones. Who would be more inclined to vote to keep the status quo? I'd guess older ones. We'll just have to see I suppose. Any exit polls or anything like that?

Yeah - he went into all that and still came down on the Yes side.

I was wondering about exit polls. I don't think the media are allowed to publish exit polls until after voting. But what would stop RTÉ from publishing one? They're not subject to UK law.

And sure maybe Scotland won't be either :)

armaghniac

Quote from: Feckitt on September 18, 2014, 11:28:22 AM
What time tonight should the TV stations be able to call it one way or another.  They keep talking about the result being about 5 or 6 Friday morning but if I stay up, will i get a pretty clear idea by midnight?  1.00?  2am?

I think the issue here is that the "Yes" proportion might differ in different regions. Some of the areas with smaller population will declare first and these might be strong "Yes" areas. Glasgow will declare much later and Labour is strong there.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

deiseach

Quote from: Hardy on September 18, 2014, 11:28:37 AM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 18, 2014, 11:24:42 AM
Who tweets? Younger ones. Who would be more inclined to vote to keep the status quo? I'd guess older ones. We'll just have to see I suppose. Any exit polls or anything like that?

Yeah - he went into all that and still came down on the Yes side.

I was wondering about exit polls. I don't think the media are allowed to publish exit polls until after voting. But what would stop RTÉ from publishing one? They're not subject to UK law.

I'm inclined towards the Mandy Rice-Davies view of 'media analysts' and the power of Twitter. Then again, I hope he's right!

Zip Code

Quote from: Feckitt on September 18, 2014, 11:28:22 AM
What time tonight should the TV stations be able to call it one way or another.  They keep talking about the result being about 5 or 6 Friday morning but if I stay up, will i get a pretty clear idea by midnight?  1.00?  2am?

No.

Sidney

Quote from: armaghniac on September 18, 2014, 11:33:18 AM
Quote from: Feckitt on September 18, 2014, 11:28:22 AM
What time tonight should the TV stations be able to call it one way or another.  They keep talking about the result being about 5 or 6 Friday morning but if I stay up, will i get a pretty clear idea by midnight?  1.00?  2am?

I think the issue here is that the "Yes" proportion might differ in different regions. Some of the areas with smaller population will declare first and these might be strong "Yes" areas. Glasgow will declare much later and Labour is strong there.
Labour has never been more out of touch with its traditional base. Glasgow will be a strong No, I'd imagine.

AZOffaly

If it's a strong No, then it will align with the Labour leadership.

haranguerer

Quote from: Feckitt on September 18, 2014, 11:28:22 AM
What time tonight should the TV stations be able to call it one way or another.  They keep talking about the result being about 5 or 6 Friday morning but if I stay up, will i get a pretty clear idea by midnight?  1.00?  2am?

Go to bed, it'll be the same result in the morning

Sidney

Jaysus.  Lack of sleep. ???

Glasgow will be be a strong Yes, I meant, obviously.  ;D