Poll

If you have/had a vote, how will/would you vote?

Yes
122 (87.8%)
No
17 (12.2%)

Total Members Voted: 139

Voting closed: September 18, 2014, 11:36:16 AM

Author Topic: Scottish independence referendum thread  (Read 91450 times)

Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #870 on: September 19, 2022, 12:03:48 PM »
I think a, Scottish referendum would have to be won 50+1% and accepted before we got any leeway here. After all brexit fucked us all over on a 51.89 to 48.11% basis.

" But Northern Ireland voted to stay" is the mantra coming from the same people saying 50 plus 1 is good enough in future ref
You would need to be an idiot not to grasp the difference in the two situations.

You'd need to be an idiot not to recognise that 51% will cause issues also though. Im not saying I agree it should be different but it will not be easy managed at all.

I am not saying you are an idiot or anything




seafoid

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #871 on: September 19, 2022, 12:53:32 PM »
I donít remember hearing  anything about a 50% +1  when the sectarian statelet  was created .

You wouldn't have - it was 70 30 or there abouts

Maybe so , but my point was That there was no referendum.  The statelet was foisted upon northern nationalists . 

Anyway ., NI was created on a sectarian headcount.  So if thereís a 50+1 yes vote for a UI , then that should  be enough. As that would  effectively mean the statelet no longer has a unionist majority and therefore  should cease to exist
Maybe there should be transition period with a referendum at the end.
The birth of NI was shameful. So was a lot of what followed.
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keep her low this half

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #872 on: September 19, 2022, 03:41:24 PM »
I donít remember hearing  anything about a 50% +1  when the sectarian statelet  was created .

You wouldn't have - it was 70 30 or there abouts

Maybe so , but my point was That there was no referendum.  The statelet was foisted upon northern nationalists . 

Anyway ., NI was created on a sectarian headcount.  So if thereís a 50+1 yes vote for a UI , then that should  be enough. As that would  effectively mean the statelet no longer has a unionist majority and therefore  should cease to exist
Maybe there should be transition period with a referendum at the end.
The birth of NI was shameful. So was a lot of what followed.

There will be a transition period after a referendum not before. There should however be a preparation period for a referendum, 2- 3 years to thrash out the details, pension, healthcare etc. Post referendum it will take sometime to run down and disentangle the British state and integrate the Irish systems, welfare, healthcare etc, it could take 5 years post referendum but that would have to be a period of joint authority with it working towards integration with the republic.

Milltown Row2

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #873 on: September 19, 2022, 03:50:42 PM »
Times frames?

5-10 years for referendum?
10-20
30-60?
None of us are getting out of here alive, so please stop treating yourself like an after thought. Ea

HiMucker

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #874 on: September 19, 2022, 04:18:58 PM »
I think a, Scottish referendum would have to be won 50+1% and accepted before we got any leeway here. After all brexit fucked us all over on a 51.89 to 48.11% basis.

" But Northern Ireland voted to stay" is the mantra coming from the same people saying 50 plus 1 is good enough in future ref
You would need to be an idiot not to grasp the difference in the two situations.

You'd need to be an idiot not to recognise that 51% will cause issues also though. Im not saying I agree it should be different but it will not be easy managed at all.

I am not saying you are an idiot or anything
Obviously you would want the vote to be as high as possible, and of course there would be some issues. But  that still doesn't warrant moving the goal posts. That's the only point I'm making.

keep her low this half

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #875 on: September 19, 2022, 04:28:19 PM »
Times frames?

5-10 years for referendum?
10-20
30-60?

I think there will be a vote on Irish reunification before 2030, it may not be won but there will be a vote. SF in government in Dublin pushing the agenda will make a big difference. Current Irish government have made zero preparations because "the time is not right". The time will never be right for FF/FG because they do not want to risk losing power which is much more important to them than northern nationalists and distortion of trade and living standards on this Island.

imtommygunn

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #876 on: September 19, 2022, 04:30:16 PM »
I am not as sure tbh. I would say longer. What if sf get into government and make a balls of it? I think they would need to get the 26 county house in order first.

seafoid

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #877 on: September 19, 2022, 04:41:14 PM »
Times frames?

5-10 years for referendum?
10-20
30-60?

I think there will be a vote on Irish reunification before 2030, it may not be won but there will be a vote. SF in government in Dublin pushing the agenda will make a big difference. Current Irish government have made zero preparations because "the time is not right". The time will never be right for FF/FG because they do not want to risk losing power which is much more important to them than northern nationalists and distortion of trade and living standards on this Island.
A lost vote is pointless.
There is a strong economic case for a United Ireland that would trump the Irish Independent analysis but it needs to be articulated and supported.
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AustinPowers

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #878 on: September 19, 2022, 05:16:12 PM »
I donít remember hearing  anything about a 50% +1  when the sectarian statelet  was created .

You wouldn't have - it was 70 30 or there abouts

Maybe so , but my point was That there was no referendum.  The statelet was foisted upon northern nationalists . 

Anyway ., NI was created on a sectarian headcount.  So if thereís a 50+1 yes vote for a UI , then that should  be enough. As that would  effectively mean the statelet no longer has a unionist majority and therefore  should cease to exist
Maybe there should be transition period with a referendum at the end.
The birth of NI was shameful. So was a lot of what followed.

There will be a transition period after a referendum not before. There should however be a preparation period for a referendum, 2- 3 years to thrash out the details, pension, healthcare etc. Post referendum it will take sometime to run down and disentangle the British state and integrate the Irish systems, welfare, healthcare etc, it could take 5 years post referendum but that would have to be a period of joint authority with it working towards integration with the republic.

Thatís all  well and good , but  the British government firstly have to agree to having a  referendum, and feck knows  how long that could take  .

And even  if they did agree to a referendum,  no doubt theyíd  stir the shit like they did with the Scots,  regarding healthcare,  pensions etc .  Scaring them into  remaining

armaghniac

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #879 on: September 19, 2022, 05:27:31 PM »
I donít remember hearing  anything about a 50% +1  when the sectarian statelet  was created .

You wouldn't have - it was 70 30 or there abouts

Maybe so , but my point was That there was no referendum.  The statelet was foisted upon northern nationalists . 

Anyway ., NI was created on a sectarian headcount.  So if thereís a 50+1 yes vote for a UI , then that should  be enough. As that would  effectively mean the statelet no longer has a unionist majority and therefore  should cease to exist
Maybe there should be transition period with a referendum at the end.
The birth of NI was shameful. So was a lot of what followed.

There will be a transition period after a referendum not before. There should however be a preparation period for a referendum, 2- 3 years to thrash out the details, pension, healthcare etc. Post referendum it will take sometime to run down and disentangle the British state and integrate the Irish systems, welfare, healthcare etc, it could take 5 years post referendum but that would have to be a period of joint authority with it working towards integration with the republic.

Thatís all  well and good , but  the British government firstly have to agree to having a  referendum, and feck knows  how long that could take  .

And even  if they did agree to a referendum,  no doubt theyíd  stir the shit like they did with the Scots,  regarding healthcare,  pensions etc .  Scaring them into  remaining

The Scottish thing is a major problem for us. London does want to keep Scotland, but doesn't much care about NI. If the NI referendum was entirely stand alone then they might not bother stirring shit, as there is no advantage in doing so. But there is a danger of them stirring shit in relation to financial arrangements etc in order to prevent any suggest that the same terms apply to Scotland. A bit of careful thought is needed for a formula that favours NI and screws Scotland.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

seafoid

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #880 on: September 19, 2022, 06:02:06 PM »
I donít remember hearing  anything about a 50% +1  when the sectarian statelet  was created .

You wouldn't have - it was 70 30 or there abouts

Maybe so , but my point was That there was no referendum.  The statelet was foisted upon northern nationalists . 

Anyway ., NI was created on a sectarian headcount.  So if thereís a 50+1 yes vote for a UI , then that should  be enough. As that would  effectively mean the statelet no longer has a unionist majority and therefore  should cease to exist
Maybe there should be transition period with a referendum at the end.
The birth of NI was shameful. So was a lot of what followed.

There will be a transition period after a referendum not before. There should however be a preparation period for a referendum, 2- 3 years to thrash out the details, pension, healthcare etc. Post referendum it will take sometime to run down and disentangle the British state and integrate the Irish systems, welfare, healthcare etc, it could take 5 years post referendum but that would have to be a period of joint authority with it working towards integration with the republic.

Thatís all  well and good , but  the British government firstly have to agree to having a  referendum, and feck knows  how long that could take  .

And even  if they did agree to a referendum,  no doubt theyíd  stir the shit like they did with the Scots,  regarding healthcare,  pensions etc .  Scaring them into  remaining

The Scottish thing is a major problem for us. London does want to keep Scotland, but doesn't much care about NI. If the NI referendum was entirely stand alone then they might not bother stirring shit, as there is no advantage in doing so. But there is a danger of them stirring shit in relation to financial arrangements etc in order to prevent any suggest that the same terms apply to Scotland. A bit of careful thought is needed for a formula that favours NI and screws Scotland.
Scotland is similar to NI in that support for independence is close to 50% and that isn't enough for a definitive break. The SNP like SF need too bring people onside.
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Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #881 on: September 19, 2022, 06:24:46 PM »
I think a, Scottish referendum would have to be won 50+1% and accepted before we got any leeway here. After all brexit fucked us all over on a 51.89 to 48.11% basis.

" But Northern Ireland voted to stay" is the mantra coming from the same people saying 50 plus 1 is good enough in future ref
You would need to be an idiot not to grasp the difference in the two situations.

You'd need to be an idiot not to recognise that 51% will cause issues also though. Im not saying I agree it should be different but it will not be easy managed at all.

I am not saying you are an idiot or anything
Obviously you would want the vote to be as high as possible, and of course there would be some issues. But  that still doesn't warrant moving the goal posts. That's the only point I'm making.

Fair enough

armaghniac

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #882 on: September 19, 2022, 06:27:15 PM »
Scotland is similar to NI in that support for independence is close to 50% and that isn't enough for a definitive break. The SNP like SF need too bring people onside.

Do Scottish people not generally accept that if a majority of Scots want independence then it should have it?
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

seafoid

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #883 on: September 19, 2022, 06:49:53 PM »
I donít remember hearing  anything about a 50% +1  when the sectarian statelet  was created .

You wouldn't have - it was 70 30 or there abouts

Maybe so , but my point was That there was no referendum.  The statelet was foisted upon northern nationalists . 

Anyway ., NI was created on a sectarian headcount.  So if thereís a 50+1 yes vote for a UI , then that should  be enough. As that would  effectively mean the statelet no longer has a unionist majority and therefore  should cease to exist
Maybe there should be transition period with a referendum at the end.
The birth of NI was shameful. So was a lot of what followed.

There will be a transition period after a referendum not before. There should however be a preparation period for a referendum, 2- 3 years to thrash out the details, pension, healthcare etc. Post referendum it will take sometime to run down and disentangle the British state and integrate the Irish systems, welfare, healthcare etc, it could take 5 years post referendum but that would have to be a period of joint authority with it working towards integration with the republic.

Thatís all  well and good , but  the British government firstly have to agree to having a  referendum, and feck knows  how long that could take  .

And even  if they did agree to a referendum,  no doubt theyíd  stir the shit like they did with the Scots,  regarding healthcare,  pensions etc .  Scaring them into  remaining
If the Brits could stop paying the subvention and could be assured that the North would be stable they would probably gladly hand it over.
Part of the reason the North is as it is now is because the Brits didn't invest in it for decades. Funding the RUC and social welfare do not count.
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imtommygunn

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #884 on: September 19, 2022, 07:31:12 PM »
I donít think the handing it over thing is true at all. They are destabilising things here and IMO intentionally to shit stir with the EU.

The brits donít invest in the north of England so the north of Ireland is unlikely to get much investment. A lot of peace funds etc have kept it afloat.