Project Ireland 2040

[Syferus]

I don't think any long term projections are credible now. The economic system is going to have another Minsky moment in the next few years . Ireland is drowning in debt. There is no growth driver.
All projections are linear. Today leads smoothly to tomorrow and so on into infinity. Economic system collapses don't work like that. The Department of Finance is still shite. And when AIB collapses again they won't be able to shunt the cost onto the sovereign like last time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TON3PORRDQ

The economy is going to be grand, which seems like it's goong to make you very sad indeed.

The problem is that grand economy will remain positioned in Dublin and acting as a vacuum for the best young people from the rest of the country. Better that emigration in decades past, but not ideal.

I think people need to accept that urbanisation is a global trend and the best jobs will be in cities and more and more people will live in cities. People in Ireland need to accept that, if they don't want to live in an urban center, commuting a long way to urban centers will be a way of life. People accept this in say New York. You might live in a nice suburban town but you'll have a good job in New York City and commute 60 to 100 miles. People need to stop fecking and blinding that there's no jobs in their little towneen. There won't ever be. But that does not mean it can't be a lovely little town that's a great place to live. Ireland 2040 needs to be about getting the transport to urban centers right.

I am not sure about that.  Before neoliberalism there was a higher percentage of money in rural areas. There are 2 key things about neoliberalism.
1. Focus on finance
2 No investment in the greater good, no investment in people

FiNance generates "value". It generates jobs. So Dublin and London.
But now finance generates nothing.
In the next system the money will be spread around like it was before neoliberalism.

Who does the high-paying jobs that are created, again?

When the money drains away from finance it won't be as important. It is all about how the money is distributed.
Maybe 2 in every 5 euros spent in Connacht are spent in Galway now. That is not a law of nature

Ok, you've been drinking again haven't you?

[seafoid]

Nothing to say Syf?

One of the features of neoliberalism is asset bubbles. House prices in Dublin as a percentage of house prices in Roscommon are way higher than they were in the 70s.
When neoliberalism dies the ratio will come down. Wealth wil be generated from Work rather than house location. That should be good for Roscommon football.
Roscommon have not had a really decent team since Keynesianism collapsed. They haven't won 3 Connacht titles in a row under neoliberalism. That is not grand.

[weareros]

I don't think any long term projections are credible now. The economic system is going to have another Minsky moment in the next few years . Ireland is drowning in debt. There is no growth driver.
All projections are linear. Today leads smoothly to tomorrow and so on into infinity. Economic system collapses don't work like that. The Department of Finance is still shite. And when AIB collapses again they won't be able to shunt the cost onto the sovereign like last time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TON3PORRDQ

The economy is going to be grand, which seems like it's goong to make you very sad indeed.

The problem is that grand economy will remain positioned in Dublin and acting as a vacuum for the best young people from the rest of the country. Better that emigration in decades past, but not ideal.

I think people need to accept that urbanisation is a global trend and the best jobs will be in cities and more and more people will live in cities. People in Ireland need to accept that, if they don't want to live in an urban center, commuting a long way to urban centers will be a way of life. People accept this in say New York. You might live in a nice suburban town but you'll have a good job in New York City and commute 60 to 100 miles. People need to stop fecking and blinding that there's no jobs in their little towneen. There won't ever be. But that does not mean it can't be a lovely little town that's a great place to live. Ireland 2040 needs to be about getting the transport to urban centers right.

I am not sure about that.  Before neoliberalism there was a higher percentage of money in rural areas. There are 2 key things about neoliberalism.
1. Focus on finance
2 No investment in the greater good, no investment in people

FiNance generates "value". It generates jobs. So Dublin and London.
But now finance generates nothing.
In the next system the money will be spread around like it was before neoliberalism.

I'm not sure I'd call it neoliberalism. The workplace is changing. The days of manufacting jobs that could be setup in the back of beyond are gone. Employers want the best talent, and that means setting up in urban areas. Also the makeup of workplaces is changing and younger people in general want to live and work in areas that are hopping, and that means urban areas, whereas a 50 year may appreciate life in a quieter area. Employers are not setting for what suits the greying generation.

[seafoid]

I don't think any long term projections are credible now. The economic system is going to have another Minsky moment in the next few years . Ireland is drowning in debt. There is no growth driver.
All projections are linear. Today leads smoothly to tomorrow and so on into infinity. Economic system collapses don't work like that. The Department of Finance is still shite. And when AIB collapses again they won't be able to shunt the cost onto the sovereign like last time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TON3PORRDQ

The economy is going to be grand, which seems like it's goong to make you very sad indeed.

The problem is that grand economy will remain positioned in Dublin and acting as a vacuum for the best young people from the rest of the country. Better that emigration in decades past, but not ideal.

I think people need to accept that urbanisation is a global trend and the best jobs will be in cities and more and more people will live in cities. People in Ireland need to accept that, if they don't want to live in an urban center, commuting a long way to urban centers will be a way of life. People accept this in say New York. You might live in a nice suburban town but you'll have a good job in New York City and commute 60 to 100 miles. People need to stop fecking and blinding that there's no jobs in their little towneen. There won't ever be. But that does not mean it can't be a lovely little town that's a great place to live. Ireland 2040 needs to be about getting the transport to urban centers right.

I am not sure about that.  Before neoliberalism there was a higher percentage of money in rural areas. There are 2 key things about neoliberalism.
1. Focus on finance
2 No investment in the greater good, no investment in people

FiNance generates "value". It generates jobs. So Dublin and London.
But now finance generates nothing.
In the next system the money will be spread around like it was before neoliberalism.

I'm not sure I'd call it neoliberalism. The workplace is changing. The days of manufacting jobs that could be setup in the back of beyond are gone. Employers want the best talent, and that means setting up in urban areas. Also the makeup of workplaces is changing and younger people in general want to live and work in areas that are hopping, and that means urban areas, whereas a 50 year may appreciate life in a quieter area. Employers are not setting for what suits the greying generation.

Neoliberalism is just the name of the system. I was in Ballina a while ago. We were in Penneys. A huge shop. All the stuff is made in China. It has killed a lot of the smaller shops . At the end of the week a truck takes all of the money out of the county. The only benefit to Ballina is maybe 40 low paid jobs and a few managers.
When Ballina had the smaller shops the money stayed in the town a lot longer. That is called the velocity of money, and it is shit now.

https://www.cic.ch/fileadmin/user_upload/anlagefonds/weekly/160426_CIC_Weekly_Markets_ENG.pdf

[Syferus]

The plans for Sligo are pretty impressive.

[IolarCoisCuain]

I don't think any long term projections are credible now. The economic system is going to have another Minsky moment in the next few years . Ireland is drowning in debt. There is no growth driver.
All projections are linear. Today leads smoothly to tomorrow and so on into infinity. Economic system collapses don't work like that. The Department of Finance is still shite. And when AIB collapses again they won't be able to shunt the cost onto the sovereign like last time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TON3PORRDQ

You're going to have to write a ladybird version for people on here who aren't fully up to speed on the international finance Seafóid.

When you refer shunting the debt onto the Sovereign, do you mean the state will stand the bill if the banks go belly-up, as it stood the bill in 2008? Ireland doesn't have its own currency, so the traditional notion of a Sovereign isn't quite accurate. Am I right in reckoning that's what you're referring to, the state's guaranteeing of bank debt in 2008, when you're referring to the Sovereign?

If it worked before, why wouldn't it work again? What's changed?

Do you think the crash will be local, or global? Why?

[Dolph1]

Did Fine Gael ever say where the additional 1 million new people were coming from?
Last I knew they were all in on abortion.

[Rossfan]

I smell renua or an alt right nut job extremist.

[sid waddell]

Did Fine Gael ever say where the additional 1 million new people were coming from?
Last I knew they were all in on abortion.

We have A Dolph, A Dolph, A Dolph here, I tells ya.

[Dolph1]

No, I'm genuinely interested in finding out. Do you have any answers Sid?

[RadioGAAGAA]

All well and good - but what about the real problem coming down the tracks - the transition to a highly automated economy - an economy where maybe only 10-15% of people will actually be able to work better/cheaper than a robot/computer.

When the unskilled literally cannot "sweep the streets" because robots are doing that - as well as most other manual/low complexity labour - what do they do?

Our entire social system (which has existed since the barter economy was replaced) will be in jeopardy.

By 2100, we could easily see a world where:
- meat is grown in labs (reducing methane will be a driver of this as well as cost).
- crop farming is 90% robotic
- all cleaning services are robotic
- most lower-skilled jobs are automated (i.e. driving taxis or lorries/fast-food cooking/shop staff/site labouring)
- many repetitive task (even if complex) jobs are automated to dramatically reduce head-count (accountancy etc)
- even complex jobs like design may be done via machine learning algorithms rather than teams of architects/engineers.

You cannot have half the population on the dole provided for by the other half. It won't add up. Somewhere along the line in the next century massive social changes will have to occur. While obviously not an exclusively Irish problem - its a problem that will need more than an overnight thinking session to fix.

[Dolph1]

All well and good - but what about the real problem coming down the tracks - the transition to a highly automated economy - an economy where maybe only 10-15% of people will actually be able to work better/cheaper than a robot/computer.

When the unskilled literally cannot "sweep the streets" because robots are doing that - as well as most other manual/low complexity labour - what do they do?

Our entire social system (which has existed since the barter economy was replaced) will be in jeopardy.

By 2100, we could easily see a world where:
- meat is grown in labs (reducing methane will be a driver of this as well as cost).
- crop farming is 90% robotic
- all cleaning services are robotic
- most lower-skilled jobs are automated (i.e. driving taxis or lorries/fast-food cooking/shop staff/site labouring)
- many repetitive task (even if complex) jobs are automated to dramatically reduce head-count (accountancy etc)
- even complex jobs like design may be done via machine learning algorithms rather than teams of architects/engineers.

You cannot have half the population on the dole provided for by the other half. It won't add up. Somewhere along the line in the next century massive social changes will have to occur. While obviously not an exclusively Irish problem - its a problem that will need more than an overnight thinking session to fix.

Excellent piece.
We can't have Fine Fail trotting out these ideas without a bit more substance behind them. There doesn't appear to be much thought put into their media spin about Distruptive Technology. Throw in a few buzzwords and then hope that will placate the masses.
Can't help thinking Project 2040 is the media friendly name for something a bit more sinister

[Rossfan]

Like what?
Compulsory abortion for all white babies?
Only Muslim immigrants allowed on to the Country?
George Soros behind it all?
Lord Lucan to return?

[Dolph1]

Like what?
Compulsory abortion for all white babies?
Only Muslim immigrants allowed on to the Country?
George Soros behind it all?
Lord Lucan to return?

Could be none, could be all. If you read between the lines they would rather import than upskill. Who is this project actually going to benefit then?
Back to my original question. If the government are telling the country that they need 1 million more residents where are they going to get them from?

[Dolph1]

Like what?
Compulsory abortion for all white babies?
Only Muslim immigrants allowed on to the Country?
George Soros behind it all?
Lord Lucan to return?

Could be none, could be all. If you read between the lines they would rather import than upskill. Who is this project actually going to benefit then?
Back to my original question. If the government are telling the country that they need 1 million more residents where are they going to get them from?

Bump for Rossfan and Sid Waddel. If you boys are so smart I can't wait for your explanation.