6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

[imtommygunn]

I think they may start slipping a bit soon alliance. The stuff with the sdlp online and I think nicholls almost let slip their unity stance in an interview. It may drop them off a few voters. The landscape has changed a good bit post brexit and neutrality won't cut it but then again once they nail their colours to the mast they are going to haemorrhage voters. The problem is with the sdlp dying, or appearing to anyway, then where would it leave nationalists who don't want to vote sf.

[seafoid]

Would  alliance not also be a reflection of the state of unionism with the UUP very weak like the SDLP and the DUP strong but unpopular?  Voters don't have a lot of choice especially under first past the post.

[marty34]

Would  alliance not also be a reflection of the state of unionism with the UUP very weak like the SDLP and the DUP strong but unpopular?  Voters don't have a lot of choice especially under first past the post.

There's the TUV, DUP, PUP, UUP and Alliance.

Plenty of choice thrre for unionism.

Problem for them is demographics are changing quickly and they've (DUP) have backed themselves into a corner:

1. Brexit.
2. No Stormont

All their own doing.  Such a mess for unionism.


Just illustrates that the north cannot work.

How do they get out of it now?

[Rossfan]

41% Unionist
40% Nationalist (incl PBP)
19% others.

Should "we" be doing better given the demographics?

[imtommygunn]

Would  alliance not also be a reflection of the state of unionism with the UUP very weak like the SDLP and the DUP strong but unpopular?  Voters don't have a lot of choice especially under first past the post.

There's the TUV, DUP, PUP, UUP and Alliance.

Plenty of choice thrre for unionism.

Problem for them is demographics are changing quickly and they've (DUP) have backed themselves into a corner:

1. Brexit.
2. No Stormont

All their own doing.  Such a mess for unionism.


Just illustrates that the north cannot work.

How do they get out of it now?

There are not plenty of choices for the more moderate unionist though. The pup are more or less dead too.

[NAG1]

Would  alliance not also be a reflection of the state of unionism with the UUP very weak like the SDLP and the DUP strong but unpopular?  Voters don't have a lot of choice especially under first past the post.

There's the TUV, DUP, PUP, UUP and Alliance.

Plenty of choice thrre for unionism.

Problem for them is demographics are changing quickly and they've (DUP) have backed themselves into a corner:

1. Brexit.
2. No Stormont

All their own doing.  Such a mess for unionism.


Just illustrates that the north cannot work.

How do they get out of it now?

There are not plenty of choices for the more moderate unionist though. The pup are more or less dead too.

Be really interesting to see a break down of the DUP voters by age bracket.

Are they still relying on the older traditional Paisley type voter, or are the actually appealing to a new harder line younger vote.

This could be the key to the future of this place as much as anything.

[marty34]

Would  alliance not also be a reflection of the state of unionism with the UUP very weak like the SDLP and the DUP strong but unpopular?  Voters don't have a lot of choice especially under first past the post.

There's the TUV, DUP, PUP, UUP and Alliance.

Plenty of choice thrre for unionism.

Problem for them is demographics are changing quickly and they've (DUP) have backed themselves into a corner:

1. Brexit.
2. No Stormont

All their own doing.  Such a mess for unionism.


Just illustrates that the north cannot work.

How do they get out of it now?

There are not plenty of choices for the more moderate unionist though. The pup are more or less dead too.

The problem there is that some in the DUP see themselves as 'moderate unionists'.

[johnnycool]

Would  alliance not also be a reflection of the state of unionism with the UUP very weak like the SDLP and the DUP strong but unpopular?  Voters don't have a lot of choice especially under first past the post.

There's the TUV, DUP, PUP, UUP and Alliance.

Plenty of choice thrre for unionism.

Problem for them is demographics are changing quickly and they've (DUP) have backed themselves into a corner:

1. Brexit.
2. No Stormont

All their own doing.  Such a mess for unionism.


Just illustrates that the north cannot work.

How do they get out of it now?

There are not plenty of choices for the more moderate unionist though. The pup are more or less dead too.

I genuinely think people are looking at the Alliance vote the wrong way.

Alliance are strong in areas normally unionist dominated, North Down, East Belfast, Strangford, Lagan Valley, South Belfast (which may be an outlier for my theory) where SF/SDLP normally haven't a hope in hell of getting enough votes so nationalist voters (in growing numbers in these areas) are tactically voting for Alliance to get them in rather than the DUP or UUP. They're obviously picking up soft Unionist voters and the "others" who don't prescribe to either tribe but I'd like to see the data on their voting base if such a thing exists!

[JPGJOHNNYG]

Would  alliance not also be a reflection of the state of unionism with the UUP very weak like the SDLP and the DUP strong but unpopular?  Voters don't have a lot of choice especially under first past the post.

There's the TUV, DUP, PUP, UUP and Alliance.

Plenty of choice thrre for unionism.

Problem for them is demographics are changing quickly and they've (DUP) have backed themselves into a corner:

1. Brexit.
2. No Stormont

All their own doing.  Such a mess for unionism.


Just illustrates that the north cannot work.

How do they get out of it now?

There are not plenty of choices for the more moderate unionist though. The pup are more or less dead too.

I genuinely think people are looking at the Alliance vote the wrong way.

Alliance are strong in areas normally unionist dominated, North Down, East Belfast, Strangford, Lagan Valley, South Belfast (which may be an outlier for my theory) where SF/SDLP normally haven't a hope in hell of getting enough votes so nationalist voters (in growing numbers in these areas) are tactically voting for Alliance to get them in rather than the DUP or UUP. They're obviously picking up soft Unionist voters and the "others" who don't prescribe to either tribe but I'd like to see the data on their voting base if such a thing exists!

There is no doubt about it that the Alliance party are picking up more and more pale green votes and in fact most certainly get more votes from the CNR community rather than the PUL. This has been shown in countless polls which of course are just ignored by Unionists as they reckon alliance voters will save the day come border poll that's despite calling them SF poodles and part of the pan nationalist front- you couldn't make it up. I welcome a vote for Alliance in Westminster elections when the alternative is a DUP tool and yer man Farry seems alright but I wouldn't waste my time in any other election with them, SDLP or SF should be competitive for a seat in most council wards and assembly constituencies.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

After 25 yrs of demographic shift and the nationalist % hasn't shifted much it doesn't take too much to realise where the votes are going, the middle ground is becoming greener and greener and that by and large is reflected in the policies of the middle ground (apart from the constitutional question) unfortunately the secretary if state will only look at that nationalist % which ain't moving much even though the unionist % is in serious free fall