Author Topic: 6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022  (Read 60804 times)

marty34

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Re: 6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022
« Reply #15 on: March 29, 2022, 08:57:21 AM »
LucidTalk poll for Belfast Telegraph at the weekend:

SF 26% (+1 from Jan)

DUP 19% (+2)

Alliance 16% (+2)

UUP 13% (-1)

SDLP 11% (-)
 
TUV 9% (-3)

Have the Nationalist parties peaked? 37% is hardly an endorsement for a border poll. Obviously it's only an opinion poll but I thought the two of them combined has circa 43% at one stage?

Probably a good few 'nationalists' going to the Alliance party I'd say especially in areas east of the Bann.

Plenty of nationalists in Strangford will vote Alliance as the most viable option of ousting a DUPer..

The SDLP came close last time with Joe Boyle, a local candidate, not sure how this new lad will fare with the usual SDLP voters..

Is there a nationalist seat in Strangford JC?

Outwith the Ballycran, Ballygalget and Portaferry areas, is there any other nationalist area around Newtownards etc.?

johnnycool

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Re: 6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022
« Reply #16 on: March 29, 2022, 09:42:27 AM »
LucidTalk poll for Belfast Telegraph at the weekend:

SF 26% (+1 from Jan)

DUP 19% (+2)

Alliance 16% (+2)

UUP 13% (-1)

SDLP 11% (-)
 
TUV 9% (-3)

Have the Nationalist parties peaked? 37% is hardly an endorsement for a border poll. Obviously it's only an opinion poll but I thought the two of them combined has circa 43% at one stage?

Probably a good few 'nationalists' going to the Alliance party I'd say especially in areas east of the Bann.

Plenty of nationalists in Strangford will vote Alliance as the most viable option of ousting a DUPer..

The SDLP came close last time with Joe Boyle, a local candidate, not sure how this new lad will fare with the usual SDLP voters..

Is there a nationalist seat in Strangford JC?

Outwith the Ballycran, Ballygalget and Portaferry areas, is there any other nationalist area around Newtownards etc.?

Not really, a handful in Newtownards would be it, hence why local Camog, Kellie Armstrong (Nee McGrattan) gets over the line with moderate unionist votes for Alliance but former Dall man Joe Boyle was just pipped to the post last time out for the SDLP and I'd say the local man aspect was a big thing for him to get that many. Not sure how the new candidate will do, I don't know him and I'm not sure the SDLP brand would be strong enough just to put anyone with their rosette in and get the same vote, but time will tell.
Shinners put up a young lad from Ards who used to hurl with us up for the GE, he may have picked up the young vote from the lads who's know him from hurling with and against him but they've no real traction with the older generations down here.

My money would be on two Alliance getting in rather than Alliance and SDLP one each, DUP to hold two but lose the other one, Hamilton was a big winner for the DUP and he's gone but Nesbitt should get in again for the UUP.

JPGJOHNNYG

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Re: 6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022
« Reply #17 on: March 29, 2022, 09:43:55 AM »
SDLP have missed an open goal here several times. Nationalists should rally behind SDLP and not get behind Alliance as you will get a muppet like Kellie Armstrong who I will never forget on TV saying that the Republic had a long way to catch up with UK regarding diversity, that when Leo was Taoiseach. Not sure who was the last gay person of ethnic minority background PM of the UK ::)

Rois

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Re: 6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022
« Reply #18 on: March 29, 2022, 09:45:06 AM »
LucidTalk poll for Belfast Telegraph at the weekend:

SF 26% (+1 from Jan)

DUP 19% (+2)

Alliance 16% (+2)

UUP 13% (-1)

SDLP 11% (-)
 
TUV 9% (-3)

Have the Nationalist parties peaked? 37% is hardly an endorsement for a border poll. Obviously it's only an opinion poll but I thought the two of them combined has circa 43% at one stage?

Probably a good few 'nationalists' going to the Alliance party I'd say especially in areas east of the Bann.

Plenty of nationalists in Strangford will vote Alliance as the most viable option of ousting a DUPer..

The SDLP came close last time with Joe Boyle, a local candidate, not sure how this new lad will fare with the usual SDLP voters..
He’s in everything but the crib. Professional committee member. But a North Down kinda guy. Sylvia Hermon for nationalists.

Average Score

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Re: 6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022
« Reply #19 on: March 29, 2022, 10:37:54 AM »
SDLP have missed an open goal here several times. Nationalists should rally behind SDLP and not get behind Alliance as you will get a muppet like Kellie Armstrong who I will never forget on TV saying that the Republic had a long way to catch up with UK regarding diversity, that when Leo was Taoiseach. Not sure who was the last gay person of ethnic minority background PM of the UK ::)

Why would anyone vote for the SDLP?

JPGJOHNNYG

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Re: 6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022
« Reply #20 on: March 29, 2022, 10:46:48 AM »
SDLP have missed an open goal here several times. Nationalists should rally behind SDLP and not get behind Alliance as you will get a muppet like Kellie Armstrong who I will never forget on TV saying that the Republic had a long way to catch up with UK regarding diversity, that when Leo was Taoiseach. Not sure who was the last gay person of ethnic minority background PM of the UK ::)

Why would anyone vote for the SDLP?

Well you will be waiting along time for a United Ireland if your just relying on SF with 26%. The sooner nationalists stop knocking each other and work together a bit more the better. Unionists tear shreds out of each other but look how they get cosy with each other come election time.

NAG1

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Re: 6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022
« Reply #21 on: March 29, 2022, 10:55:23 AM »
I dont think this election is going to matter in the short/ medium term. The DUP have backed themselves into such a corner that making up an executive with a SF FM is really a red line for them.

So SF may return as the largest party but chances are there wont be an executive so we will be back where we started. That's unless Alliance can make big gains, but my reading of that is to form an executive they would have to nominate themselves as Unionists to make the joint rule work?!

It is going to be a mess all summer unfortunately and with the LCC stirring up all sorts of tensions could make for an intense marching season.

johnnycool

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Re: 6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022
« Reply #22 on: March 29, 2022, 11:05:15 AM »
SDLP have missed an open goal here several times. Nationalists should rally behind SDLP and not get behind Alliance as you will get a muppet like Kellie Armstrong who I will never forget on TV saying that the Republic had a long way to catch up with UK regarding diversity, that when Leo was Taoiseach. Not sure who was the last gay person of ethnic minority background PM of the UK ::)

Kellie talks shíte a lot of the time, but that's a family trait  ;) and doesn't take kindly to my jibs about it'll be great to see all those kids in integrated education playing a bit of hurling during PE lessons as evidently that's an after school activity in an integrated school but not timetabled...

The Assumption Grammar has a lot to answer for.

Snapchap

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Re: 6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022
« Reply #23 on: March 29, 2022, 11:12:54 AM »
SDLP have missed an open goal here several times. Nationalists should rally behind SDLP and not get behind Alliance as you will get a muppet like Kellie Armstrong who I will never forget on TV saying that the Republic had a long way to catch up with UK regarding diversity, that when Leo was Taoiseach. Not sure who was the last gay person of ethnic minority background PM of the UK ::)

Why would anyone vote for the SDLP?

Well you will be waiting along time for a United Ireland if your just relying on SF with 26%. The sooner nationalists stop knocking each other and work together a bit more the better. Unionists tear shreds out of each other but look how they get cosy with each other come election time.

In fairness, I don't think it's a case that the two nationalist parties are constantly knocking each other - it's more a case that the SDLP are obsessive about attacking SF. SF rarely bother engaging in attacks on the SDLP. Brian Feeney recently wrote a very good column in the Irish News about this:

"It seems obligatory for SDLP speakers to attack Sinn Féin rather than promoting their own position on any matter. It's obsessive, it's repetitive, it's tedious, it's been constant for years. Sometimes its just silly, such as trying to say Sinn Féin's behaviour is the cause of the DUP threatening to pull down the executive.
Enoch Powell said never to mention political opponents in speeches because it only give them a chance to excercise their right of reply. You'll notice Sinn Féin seldom or never mentions the SDLP. They concentrate their assaults on their political enemy the DUP even though it's the SDLP that's their political antagonist for votes."


And he is right. Only last week, the Irish News was reporting on the SDLP annual conference over a two page spread. Each headline was about a speaker trying to link SF to the DUP's collapsing of the executive. You'd thing that surely SOMEONE in that party should be savy enough to know that absolutely nobody is stupid enough to fall for that and that it won't refelect well on them to be trying to take people for fools? Yet as Brian Feeney went on to say in his article:

"For some reason no-one in the SDLP seems to have realised that persistently attacking Sinn Féin doesn't work. They've been hammering away now through four leaders since John Hume. For a while they tried calling the DUP & Sinn Féin 'the problem parties'. No good. The voters didn't agree and continued to vote in increasing numbers for both.
Is relentlessly attacking Sinn Féin a strategy or has it long since become merely a reflex reaction?"
« Last Edit: March 29, 2022, 11:15:47 AM by Snapchap »

Truth hurts

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Re: 6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022
« Reply #24 on: March 29, 2022, 11:15:27 AM »
South Down might see a drop in the vote for the shinners due to Emma Rogan non-attendance and Sinead Ennis social media crap. But Cathy Mason is a sound girl and I expect 2 sf, 2 stoops and one unionist to get the seats. It will be interesting to see who will get the unionist vote as Harold McKee is now TUV and would be well known and respected in the Kilkeel area. Will the offical unionists follow him?

Newry and Armagh should be interesting with independent Gavin Malone throwing his hat into the ring. He seems to be well got in the area and it could put an sf seat in that area at risk

JPGJOHNNYG

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Re: 6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022
« Reply #25 on: March 29, 2022, 11:26:24 AM »
South Down might see a drop in the vote for the shinners due to Emma Rogan non-attendance and Sinead Ennis social media crap. But Cathy Mason is a sound girl and I expect 2 sf, 2 stoops and one unionist to get the seats. It will be interesting to see who will get the unionist vote as Harold McKee is now TUV and would be well known and respected in the Kilkeel area. Will the offical unionists follow him?

Newry and Armagh should be interesting with independent Gavin Malone throwing his hat into the ring. He seems to be well got in the area and it could put an sf seat in that area at risk

Alliance may get one of those nationalist seats in South Down

Armagh18

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Re: 6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022
« Reply #26 on: March 29, 2022, 11:35:48 AM »
South Down might see a drop in the vote for the shinners due to Emma Rogan non-attendance and Sinead Ennis social media crap. But Cathy Mason is a sound girl and I expect 2 sf, 2 stoops and one unionist to get the seats. It will be interesting to see who will get the unionist vote as Harold McKee is now TUV and would be well known and respected in the Kilkeel area. Will the offical unionists follow him?

Newry and Armagh should be interesting with independent Gavin Malone throwing his hat into the ring. He seems to be well got in the area and it could put an sf seat in that area at risk
Malone be a near cert I’d say. Seems a decent enough skin but probably better suited to local issues.

Shamrock Shore

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Re: 6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022
« Reply #27 on: March 29, 2022, 11:50:17 AM »
Is Bryson running?

Why does Nolan give him so much oxygen?

Truth hurts

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Re: 6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022
« Reply #28 on: March 29, 2022, 12:03:29 PM »
South Down might see a drop in the vote for the shinners due to Emma Rogan non-attendance and Sinead Ennis social media crap. But Cathy Mason is a sound girl and I expect 2 sf, 2 stoops and one unionist to get the seats. It will be interesting to see who will get the unionist vote as Harold McKee is now TUV and would be well known and respected in the Kilkeel area. Will the offical unionists follow him?

Newry and Armagh should be interesting with independent Gavin Malone throwing his hat into the ring. He seems to be well got in the area and it could put an sf seat in that area at risk
Malone be a near cert I’d say. Seems a decent enough skin but probably better suited to local issues.

What Shinner will get ousted then if he gets in

Milltown Row2

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Re: 6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022
« Reply #29 on: March 29, 2022, 12:03:42 PM »
Is Bryson running?

Why does Nolan give him so much oxygen?
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Empty vessels make the most noise, he's not really caring what comes out of his trap as long as it makes the news and keeps his fat paycheck coming in
None of us are getting out of here alive, so please stop treating yourself like an after thought. Ea