The next recession

[marty34]

https://www.ft.com/content/64295857-45a5-4885-a2a9-344e7f249761

According to estimates published by the Fed on Friday, which are purely based on theoretical policy rules the central bank uses as guideposts but does not "mechanically" follow, interest rates should be between 4 and 7 per cent given the current economic backdrop.

If interest rates were at between 4% and 7%, a lot of keys would be handed back I'd say.

[clarshack]

https://www.ft.com/content/64295857-45a5-4885-a2a9-344e7f249761

According to estimates published by the Fed on Friday, which are purely based on theoretical policy rules the central bank uses as guideposts but does not "mechanically" follow, interest rates should be between 4 and 7 per cent given the current economic backdrop.

If interest rates were at between 4% and 7%, a lot of keys would be handed back I'd say.

first got our mortgage in 2003 when interest rates were at 3.75%. I asked the mortgage advisor at the time what would happen if rates shot up like they did in the early 90's and he said the same thing that a lot of keys would be handed back, but it would be in the government's interest for that not to happen.

[CiKe]

https://www.ft.com/content/64295857-45a5-4885-a2a9-344e7f249761

According to estimates published by the Fed on Friday, which are purely based on theoretical policy rules the central bank uses as guideposts but does not "mechanically" follow, interest rates should be between 4 and 7 per cent given the current economic backdrop.

If interest rates were at between 4% and 7%, a lot of keys would be handed back I'd say.

first got our mortgage in 2003 when interest rates were at 3.75%. I asked the mortgage advisor at the time what would happen if rates shot up like they did in the early 90's and he said the same thing that a lot of keys would be handed back, but it would be in the government's interest for that not to happen.

what's the story with mortgages back home? I got a variable +0.75% there about three years ago when Euribor was at around -0.5%. Switched to fixed towards start of year at 0.75% for the remaining period (22 years).

Was talking to a friend who bought in Dublin, said that banks wouldn't offer full-term fixed mortgage? Is that standard? Seems crazy.

On the other hand, with talk of giving back keys, take it then that banks are on the hook for any shortfall if repossessed house doesn't cover the loan? Can't just do that here, they'll repossess the house and you'll still be on the hook for any shortfall.

[clarshack]

Last time we got a fixed mortgage rate Danske Bank wouldn't offer anymore than 5 years.
I know Nationwide had 10 year fixed deals but not sure if they still have them.

[armaghniac]

The recession is not arriving in the 26 counties just yet. The unemployment rate has just fallen to its lowest level in 21 years in July at just 4.2pc and government revenue this July is up 19% on last year, a lot of this is corporation tax but income tax and vat are up also. No doubt there are people feeling some issues with price rises, but by historical standards these are the good times.

[imtommygunn]

What is the story with zero hour contracts down south? Is there such a thing?

[shark]

What is the story with zero hour contracts down south? Is there such a thing?

Legislation in 2018 banned the practice in most cases.

[imtommygunn]

Ah that's good. I was wondering were the stats skewed by this. Good they're not.

[Wildweasel74]

Things gone bad, worse than 2007. Still think the craic in the Ukraine been used to hid the clusterfuck that is Brexit. Its barely mentioned on TV as a possible cause. Covid didn't help the situation either.

[imtommygunn]

Agreed. Brexit makes zero sense at all and they have basically "doubled down" on it and pulled this nationalism card. It is wrecking the economy- trashing it tbh. Some boys with a pile of money somewhere I suspect gaining somehow and the rest of us paying for it.

[marty34]

Did people save much money through Covid?

Hear all these reports about how, with no travelling to work and no holidays etc., people saved a lot of money.

I find it hard to believe that people saved a lot of money.

[armaghniac]

Did people save much money through Covid?

Hear all these reports about how, with no travelling to work and no holidays etc., people saved a lot of money.

I find it hard to believe that people saved a lot of money.

Some people wouldn't save money if you put them in a jail cell, but most people did save on outgoings that they were unable to make.

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

The recession is not arriving in the 26 counties just yet. The unemployment rate has just fallen to its lowest level in 21 years in July at just 4.2pc and government revenue this July is up 19% on last year, a lot of this is corporation tax but income tax and vat are up also. No doubt there are people feeling some issues with price rises, but by historical standards these are the good times.

Get SF in quick to sort that out

[clarshack]

Did people save much money through Covid?

Hear all these reports about how, with no travelling to work and no holidays etc., people saved a lot of money.

I find it hard to believe that people saved a lot of money.

A lot of people spruced up their houses with whatever extra disposable income they had.

[marty34]

Did people save much money through Covid?

Hear all these reports about how, with no travelling to work and no holidays etc., people saved a lot of money.

I find it hard to believe that people saved a lot of money.

A lot of people spruced up their houses with whatever extra disposable income they had.

Running a house, kids and cars etc. even through Covid still was costly though.

Just a general point that house prices were going up as people had saved moved for deposits etc. for houses but I'm just saying there's a lot of savings in say £1000.