Live NI Politics TV Debate

[delboy]

Oh right, sorry, I thought I said that! Heheh... Looks like we are both numpties...

Reg empty head hasn't managed in in south antrim either, looks like its coming down to either gildernew or connor, wouldn't dream of making it the kneebreakers fund or similar for the default, in light of us being crap, if it comes down to it, a charity of your choice 

[Ulick]

Reg empty head hasn't managed in in south antrim either, looks like its coming down to either gildernew or connor, wouldn't dream of making it the kneebreakers fund or similar for the default, in light of us being crap, if it comes down to it, a charity of your choice 

No, no. I'm a man of my word. Charity of your choice. Tis worth it for the Swish Family getting it stuffed up them.

[delboy]

MG ahead by 2 votes  in F&ST, another recount under way.

[delboy]

I see the rumoured win in upper bann did not materalise (wasn't even close), and also that dodds majority was not reduced to the hundreds, although to be fair to SF they did make decent inroads.

The two target sdlp seats for SF was a flop also, a swing of 0.1 and 0.2 % from SDLP to SF in south down and foyle, they'll be a long time taking those seats at that rate.

[Denn Forever]

What affect did the leader's debate have when Peter seemed be chummy with Gerry?   Were the Alliance party not invited?

[delboy]

Despite there being more ballot papers counted than was actually issued  F&ST have returned MG, well that was as close as you could ask for, pick your charity ulick 

[armaghniac]

Reg empty head hasn't managed in in south antrim

Reg will always be an eMPey

[Ulick]

Sorry Delboy, had to work late there. Here's my predictions:

East Antrim: Wilson (the only DUP shoe-in)
East Belfast: Robinson (losing about 3k votes to Ringland and Long)
East Derry: Campbell (even  though we'd all love to see Grumpy Gregory taken out by the prodiban insurgency of Willie Ross - yes I thought he was dead as well - maybe he is)
Fermanagh & S Tyrone: Gildernew (going with the gut on this one and a sense that the people of FST will do the just thing)    
Lagan Valley: Donaldson (even though the gay porno stories have got out, such things shouldn't matter in a constituency that returned bachelor boy Jim Molyneux for so many years)
Foyle: Durkan (the bourgeois Catholics should see him safely into his retirement package, but McCann will be the difference as Anderson should get within a few thousand)
Mid Ulster: McGuinness (the most respected politician in the north will be rewarded for his leadership - could even increase his lead to 50% of the vote)
Newry and Armagh: Murphy (probably increasing his majority close to 10k)
North Belfast: Deputy Dodds to hold for the last time (Old hawk eyes Kelly coming within a few hundred)
North Down: Hermon (with Parsley getting spanked for his trouble)
West Belfast: Adams (a shoe-in though he'll do well to maintain his 70% share of the vote)
West Tyrone: Doherty (a true gentleman, the old soldier has organised too many elections to let this slip even without Deeny standing)
South Belfast: McDonnell (Spratt will run him close though but he should still get about half of the Maskey vote to see him over the line)
North Antrim: Paisley (17k majority to too much to fcuk up even for Ian Og)
South Antrim: Reg Empey (SDLP tactical voters getting him over the line)
South Down: Ritche (served McGrady well but his share will probably slip from 44% to about 32% under her even with all of the UUP tactical votes. John McCallister to get embarrassed)
Strangford: Shannon ('Swish Family Robinson' and Fred Frazer backlash will be felt here but they locals should see through Nesbitt)
Upper Bann: Simpson to hold (with The Chef about 1.5k behind as the locals still don't realise it's winnable - they will next time)


So I have: 8 DUP, 5 SF, 3 SDLP, 1 'UUUCNF', 1 Ind

Obviously I still hold out hope for Kelly & O'Dowd who could cause a major upset if a perfect storm of conditions go their way.

Right here is mine, actually not terribly different at first glance, although our interpretations of how close votes will be should differ.

East Antrim: DUP win, easy for Sammy.
East Belfast: DUP easy win despite reason scandals.
Londonderry East: Comfortable DUP win for Gregory
Fermanagh & S Tyrone: Connor win, not sure about this but i think the number of SDLP votes needed to shift to SF will be too many this time round, i expect a core SDLP vote will not vote SF. I also expect the turn out of the unionist bloc to be v. high since they have a chance of a win, hard to see how SF can mobilise the vote any more than they already do.    
Lagan Valley: DUP win for Donaldson.
Foyle: SDLP win with the most able SDLP candidate Durkan returned.
Mid Ulster: Easy SF win for the ex chuckle brother Marty.
Newry and Armagh: SF win
North Belfast: The most able member of the DUP ranks returned to parliament, the gap will remain in the thousands (not hundreds is my prediction).
North Down: Easy win for lady Hermon who is popular with the bangor people.
West Belfast: Another thumping win for SF and Gerry, despite his own scandals.
West Tyrone: SF win.
South Belfast: SDLP win, can't see spratt running him that close with a split in the unionist vote.
North Antrim: Paisley win for DUP, but TUV will put the wind up them and will eat into the large majority left to him by his dad.
South Antrim: Unsure of this but im going with a Reg Empty head win, the TUV may just split the traditional DUP vote to let the UCUNF UCUNF get a much needed MP, if they don't it could be bad news for republicans/nationalists as it could spell the end of the party and we could well see the the emergence of a unified unionist party.
South Down: Ritche win for SDLP against the terrible ruane, the SF tacticians would do well to remove here at the earliest opportunity.
Strangford: Despite virus doing her best ruin it for her own party, DUP should hold off nesbitt comfortably.
Upper Bann: DUP to hold despite the rumblings and rumours on here about an upset.

I have: 8 DUP, 4 SF, 3 SDLP, 1 'UCUNF', 2 Ind (Hermon and Connor).

Looks like a draw delboy. Shall we call it quits or will we both donate £20 anyway, in lieu of a handshake?

[delboy]

I think you won ulick, you called the F&ST seat, i'd like to donate £20 to chest heart and stroke if thats ok.