General Election 2024

[Rossfan]

That's disappointing and potentially dangerous in future.

[armaghniac]

Seems as if turnout was quite low particularly so with young people.

yet hundreds of thousands were added to the register in recent weeks.

On second preferences, FF and FG 20%, SF 17%. This will tell in actual seats.

[whitey]

So Sinn Fein, the main opposition party to an historically unpopular government, only managed to pick up a couple of points in support compared to what they got in 2020?

How many seats should they get if that exit poll is accurate?

[weareros]

Opinion polls were remarkably accurate apart from FF. A government will be hard enough to form unless FF/FG/Labour have the numbers.

[Capt Pat]

Greens are down from 7.1% to 4% if the exit poll is correct.

[weareros]

So Sinn Fein, the main opposition party to an historically unpopular government, only managed to pick up a couple of points in support compared to what they got in 2020?

How many seats should they get if that exit poll is accurate?

Sinn would be down on that exit poll from the 24.5.% they secured in 2020. That said the 2020 exit poll undercounted SF by about 2%. In general the exit polls are accurate enough given 1-2%.

[Duine Inteacht Eile]

So Sinn Fein, the main opposition party to an historically unpopular government, only managed to pick up a couple of points in support compared to what they got in 2020?

How many seats should they get if that exit poll is accurate?

The exit poll is much better for them than I thought it would be considering the world was falling down around them a month ago.

[Saffrongael]

So Sinn Fein, the main opposition party to an historically unpopular government, only managed to pick up a couple of points in support compared to what they got in 2020?

How many seats should they get if that exit poll is accurate?

The exit poll is much better for them than I thought it would be considering the world was falling down around them a month ago.

I can't imagine the McMonagle one would have had much "cut through" as they say, in the south.

[Captain Scarlet]

Sadly there are too many Gen Z and Millenials (I am one) more concerned with Trump than voting here.

A lot of the older people interviewed by RTE were happy with things. That's it.

[Duine Inteacht Eile]

So Sinn Fein, the main opposition party to an historically unpopular government, only managed to pick up a couple of points in support compared to what they got in 2020?

How many seats should they get if that exit poll is accurate?

The exit poll is much better for them than I thought it would be considering the world was falling down around them a month ago.

I can't imagine the McMonagle one would have had much "cut through" as they say, in the south.

There was more than that. Well, to be fair, there wasn't really but there was a whole furore about members of the Seanad and TDs.
It was a shitshow for them. Though, it seems to have been much ado about nothing at this stage.

[Rossfan]

Sadly there are too many Gen Z and Millenials (I am one) more concerned with Trump than voting here.

A lot of the older people interviewed by RTE were happy with things. That's it.

"The economy, stoopid"

[Blowitupref]

Turnout figures in last five general elections

2020 -  62.9%
2016 - 65.1%
2011 - 69.9%
2007 - 67.0%
2002 - 62.6%


Looks to be under 60% for this one but turnout did pick up across the country in the final few hours.

[Deerstalker]

Bit to go yet but hasn't been the anti incumbents vote that we have seen in other places, nor the Sinn Fein wave I thought may have occurred 

[armaghniac]

Turnout figures in last five general elections

2020 -  62.9%
2016 - 65.1%
2011 - 69.9%
2007 - 67.0%
2020 - 62.6%
Looks to be under 60% for this one but turnout did pick up across the country in the final few hours.

They need to clean up the register to get accurate turnout figures.

Bit to go yet but hasn't been the anti incumbents vote that we have seen in other places, nor the Sinn Fein wave I thought may have occurred 

Thankfully, while we have some populism we are still largely free of the nihilist voting that we have seen elsewhere e.g. Trump or the looney in Romania.

[Substandard]

Maybe it's because our population range isn't broad enough to see dramatic swings from right to left, it looks like we'll always be stuck in this same loop.  Maybe that's a good thing, or at least not too bad.  It seems as if the electorate are largely comfortable enough, and whatever grumbling goes on, will do the same again and again. It would probably take a massive economic meltdown to jolt through the system to see a significant change, and I wouldn't be comfortable enough in the comfortable/ grumbling class to ever want to see that.
Used to argue it out a good bit in college,  where a lot of the arguments were settled along the lines of being a FF or FG voter was a bit like being a Liverpool or United fan: nice to feel like your team was on top, but on a material, day to day basis, wasn't going to make a whole lot of difference (if you wore a Celtic jersey,  you were automatically Sinn Féin!!).
 Also, college life was a bubble, so while you'd meet and hang around with people with differing political views, if you liked people,  it didn't matter about their politics,  but if you disliked them, it helped if you could also pin politics as a reason.
The likelihood is same again-ish, though the Greens are unlikely to have sufficient clout, so Labour, who I always classed as political slappers, or maybe SDs might get blinded by the lights and throw in their hat.  History would suggest the smaller support act tends to get chewed up and spat out in these arrangements.
If it is to be the same again-ish, I'll carry on carrying on and occasionally grumbling,  but I would like to see more active measures or discussion or preparation towards a border poll.  This might be uncomfortable for the comfortable options, but successive coalitions can't keep kicking it down the road, and if they are so anxious to keep Sinn Féin on the outside,  that's one way they can go about it.