Kerry v Galway, All-Ireland Senior Football Final. 24 July, 2022

[blanketattack]

The previous weaknesses Kerry have had have been greatly reduced or eliminated -
- defense: high ball, fast ball, run at them, tendency to foul, tendency to give up goal chances.
Throughout 2022, they've dealt with all these threats and debunked all these perceived weaknesses as well as provided a great launching pad for attacks.
In Tom O'Sullivan they've a player who's only a point or two away from being Kerry's top scorer from play this year.
If Kerry win the All-Ireland this year it will have been the defense that will have won it for them not any other area.

Goalkeeper has also been very solid. Comfortable in possession, under the high ball, and proved very good under pressure at finding a Kerry jersey with a kickout against a high press.
After Seán O'Shea's free v Dublin I don't expect Shane Ryan to be taking any more frees for Kerry.

Midfield: a bit under par so far but have a good mixture of high fielding, ball carrying,  spoiling and foot passing between them.
Kicking points from play is a bit lacking but when they look at the forwards in front of them probably best to let them do that part.

Forwards. A mixed bag. Kerry play with 5 forwards and only 3 of the 5 did the business against Dublin.
Stephen O'Brien was up against James McCarthy so that was always going to be a tough assignment and I expect him to produce the goods on Sunday.
Our no. 15 will need a big game be it Geaney or Spillane.

If both teams bring their A game I expect Kerry to win with a bit to spare.
Kerry's win over Dublin has ticked a lot of boxes that will stand to Kerry:
Beat Dublin in the C'ship
Win a tight big game
Suffer big setbacks in a game and not let it swing momentum
Find a man with kickouts under high press at big moments in the  game.

This will give Kerry a freedom to play with more confidence.
Add in an experienced manager with a tendency to throw a few curve balls that work in A-I finals against a first timer and I'd say Kerry by 3.

[seafoid]

I wonder about the Kerry forwards. To win an all Ireland you need at least 4 decent forwards.

[imtommygunn]

If Kerry don't have 4 then it's highly unlikely Galway have...

You need 3 scoring forwards. Then if you have Clifford and he is on his game you probably need less.

[seafoid]

In 20 years Kerry have only beaten one psychologically stable team in an all Ireland final.

[Lucifer]

In terms of the game itself I would not have fancied Galway v Dublin, but I think they will give Kerry a fair rattle.
If they can get the Kerry forwards running back then they will really upset them. Sean Kelly went on some serious runs off the ball v Derry but it dragged a marker away up the field too.

In the air Moran is class and great on the ball too, but Galway have a lot of very big mobile men around the middle.

There was good insight here for match-ups in the Derry game, so who will mark who this time out? I do think Shane Walsh will get more freedom against Kerry...

Agree there was some good analysis on the match ups, mainly from the Derry wans to be fair. Complete absence of it on here for the final

I actually think Moran will struggle a bit on Sunday. McDaid and Conroy look a more balanced pairing. McDaid has the legs, and Conroy has the aerial prowess. Moran at 34 years old now, this is likely his last outing for Kerry

Galway need to repeat the defensive performance of the semi final, that will be difficult as Derry ran out of ideas fairly early in the contest. Derry spent the second half going through the emotions, defending a deficit. Kerry wont entertain that sort of madness on Sunday.

That said i still think Galway have an excellent chance. Kerry are certainly beatable, I agree with Oisin McConville when he says he doesnt trust their mentality. if the game is in the balance in the closing stages, its Galway for me.

Unfortunately for Walsh, Kerry have a tailor made opponent for him in Tom O'Sullivan.  After a quiet semi final, Galway really need to find a way to get him into the game, but he's going to be marking one of the best in the business who will also force him into the wrong side of the field.  Kerry will not play as defensive as Derry so he may see more space, but he really needs to be getting his hands on ball closer to the attacking 45 than the defensive.  Foley v Comer will be interesting, it's likely with the forewarning Kerry have received that Morley will try to cut out the dinked John Daly passes inside.  With Galway trying to drop men back it will leave Morley relatively free to close the space to Comer.  Possibly the likes of Conroy/Tierney/Kelly, or a roaming Walsh, could try an earlier ball from a bit deeper to see if Foley can control Comers power.  I'm not really sure that has been a feature of their game, but it's not a massive tweak either. Can Tierney have more influence if Morley is dropping off?  There's certainly more in him and if he was to exert some influence it can help create that dilemma for Morley and in turn that little bit more space for Comer.  Finnerty another who has the potential to profit if attention is focused elsewhere; O'Sullivan won't be quite as suffocating as Chrissy McKaigue!  I would have expected White to pick up Kelly, but there are rumours he is injured.  If Murphy comes in for White, it does create a bit of an aerial mismatch for Kerry and they might need to re-jig things a bit.

At midfield I think Barry will pick up McDaid, and Moran on Conroy.  Whilst Conroy can get forward and pick off points, it isn't based off pace and Moran should have the savvy to deal with this to some extent (until his legs run out.)  Also with the way Galway are anticipated to drop off to cover, it will mean that Moran will rarely be left with open ground to deal with Conroy.  All that said though, it is something Galway should be pinpointing and testing early.  Aerially I still think Moran trumps Conroy, and Kerry need that option at midfield in truth, so I can't see Kerry changing midfield from the last day out until Galway give them a reason too.  Kerry will press hard on kickouts, but Galway may be a bit more conservative.  Hopefully they'll at least have periods where they take those risks, like early 2nd half v Derry, and close off the short options and make it a contest.

I believe Michael Meehan has suggested Silke on D Clifford, in order to leave Kelly more freedom to support out the field.  This goes against the prevailing thought that Kelly will take up him up.  It really could be either, but I believe Kelly will start there which can leave Silke to SOS.  Counter intuitively, Kelly may actually get more freedom to break out if he's on D Cliff than he would SOS who will actually track him further.  A bit like Derrys problem against Galway, it's hard to put together direct match ups without leaving someone in a contest not particularly suited to them.  Will Silke then pick up SOS, or would they want him following P Clifford?  Could John Daly move back to Geaney, given Glynn doesn't appear the physical match of Geaney, or do Galway take that risk knowing that Kerry will want D Clifford closer to goal and may not look at exploiting that?  Where will John Daly go then?  Whilst he may try to be an extra man, Kerry won't always allow for it.  Glynn could follow P Cliff out instead, I don't think Galway would want Daly on P Cliff.  This is all assuming Molloy is not given one of these roles, and is left with Diarmuid O'Connor (or Dara Moynihan.)  Then McHugh goes to Stephen O'Brien (or Dara Moynihan.)  The bonus in terms of defensive match ups for Galway, is that their midfield pairing and Heaney/Kelly, have the capabilities of filling lots of those spaces or taking up a man to allow others to cover.  If White isn't there, it's an additional bonus for them.  They will attempt to close up that space around goal like they did against Derry, and obviously Kerry will have better outside shooters, but coincidentally Kerrys best 2 outside shooters could end up on the inside line (D Cliff and SOS.) 

I feel that Galway will be banking on goals, and they'll need 2 more than Kerry to win imo.  The easiest way for them to do it will be to shut Kerrys way to goal completely, and then focus on keeping their main shooters to limited opportunities.  P Clifford, S O'Brien, D O'Connor, or J Barry will not score a high percentage of "outside" shots, so the focus can be slightly shifted onto the others, if they've managed to slow the build up (a.k.a. the transition  ).  If they get it in quickly, that becomes much more difficult, which is why their ability to slow them up will be so crucial.  Hopefully this doesn't mean they'll just sit deep waiting, giving Kerry excess possession will eventually lead to gaps.  I think they'll try to engage them around midfield whilst attempting to shuffle 2 back as they've done in previous games.  An AI final and the nerves that come with it can cause conservatism, but if Galway can show courage and take calculated risks in how they play, they can take Kerry into an uncomfortable place where this particular team haven't always shown the composure expected of AI Champions (even in victory v the Dubs.)  I still expect Kerry to have too much, but if Galway are in sight at 50 minutes I think they'll take it down the stretch and from there I couldn't safely predict a winner.

[blasmere]

In 20 years Kerry have only beaten one psychologically stable team in an all Ireland final.

Are you Joe Brolly?

[blanketattack]

In 20 years Kerry have only beaten one psychologically stable team in an all Ireland final.

Does that stay at one if you stretch it to 22 years?

[An Fhairche Abu]

Derry averaged 22 points per game leading into the semi-final. Kerry so far are averaging 23 points per game. Galway held Derry to 9 points by setting up with 15 men behind the bar from the throw in. Would be daft if Galway deviated from their ultra blanket against superior forwards.

Galway by 4

Would be absolute madness for Galway to try to play the same game versus Kerry, but I'm sure O'Neill knows that (he was with Kerry too for a while?).
The two big differences are firstly Kerry will take their shots from 35 yds and outwards - Derry had opportunity after opportunity to take a shot and repeatedly tried to work it closer for a better opportunity. Once a few of those go over, the defending team realise their tactic isn't working and have to come out.
The second big difference is Clifford - they can play the high ball in and he'll win it, geaney is a big guy too, so that's another option.
I don't think this game will he a contest unfortunately, setting myself up for a fall here, but it's kerry by 10.for me - at best Galway might get a few garbage time scores to leave just 7 in it.

Will be unfortunate if it turns out that way as that means Galway will have had a nightmare no show on the day, that's a possibility certainly (I think the experience that Kerry players have from 2019 is a big factor for Sunday) but Galway have to show up with a performance and see where takes them. They may have a couple of generational talents up front but I don't think this Kerry team are unbeatable, whether the Galway team are capable of beating them is a very different question in fairness.

[imtommygunn]

It's kind of n unknown here tbh. On one hand I wouldn't be surprised if Kerry win by 10 whereas on the other I wouldn't be surprised if Galway win.

Kerry against Dublin still showed weakness. Dublin still have some great players but they are not firing and quite a few inexperienced in there too and Kerry just got over them but the flip side of that is it will give them confidence.

Galway very solid defensively and a very useful FF line. It'll maybe be from lines other than the FF line where this game is won as I'd expect both defenses to have lots of numbers.

[Blowitupref]

Darragh Maloney and Kevin McStay on the commentary for this All Ireland final.

[ardtole]

Id much prefer Eamonn FitzMaurice, he gives a great insight into the match ups, and switches that are going on during the game.

[seafoid]

In 20 years Kerry have only beaten one psychologically stable team in an all Ireland final.

Does that stay at one if you stretch it to 22 years?

It's a bad record imo over 20 which is surely long enough. Even if you go back to 97 it is poor.. Kerry have not been very Kerry like.

[From the Bunker]

In 20 years Kerry have only beaten one psychologically stable team in an all Ireland final.

Are Galway a psychologically stable team?

[Farrandeelin]

Based on Galway's last two games weathering the early storms built the foundations of both victories - yes the Armagh game took on a life of its own at the end of normal time. I think Kerry will try to unsettle Galway as much as possible early on and build a nice lead that could be withstood if Galway find their feet in the second half, similar to the way Galway beat Mayo in the first round. Speaking of that game, I remember my father commenting to me that that one point win could be the makings of Galway. And they're still there. I myself think Kerry are vulnerable enough. Ifs, buts and maybes - but had Mayo actually taken their chances in that third quarter, who knows what might have happened. Or maybe Kerry have turned a corner with that one point win against Dublin to be the makings of them. What I don't understand is how quick Galway were dismissed by Ger Canning on the commentary during the semi-final. They problem won't be given a hope in hell in terms of predictions on Sunday morning's papers either and that could be no harm at all. I think we have the two best sets of forwards in the country going head to head, so that means a lot will depend on the better defence. I think Kerry having improved a lot this year in this department and I think this may see them win it. I'm looking forward to it now I must say. I don't think there'll be much in it either way. Galway have a great chance of 'nicking' it though to be honest.

[Taylor]

Darragh Maloney and Kevin McStay on the commentary for this All Ireland final.

Sky commentary it is then