Sam Maguire Qualifiers 2022

[Blowitupref]

Pat Spillane says Cork have momentum lol. As bad as Tyrone have been if Cork had have drawn us in the first qualifier we still would have beaten them by 10+
It's been a very favourable draw for the Munster teams this year.

And that Limerick made a great recovery from that heavy defeat to Kerry to lose by only 5 points. Limerick and Cork are around the same level two Div 2 teams that will do well to avoid relegation next year and in the last two years lost Munster finals to Kerry by plus 20 points.

[tintin25]

Cork lol.  They'll be dispatched with relative ease come the quarters

[David McKeown]

So if my maths are correct.
The likelihood of each match up is as follows.

Armagh v Kerry 33.3
Armagh v Galway 33.3
Armagh v Derry 16.7
Armagh v Dublin 16.7

Clare v Kerry 33.3
Clare v Galway 33.3
Clare v Derry 16.7
Clare v Dublin 16.7

Cork v Kerry 0
Cork v Galway 33.3
Cork v Derry 33.3
Cork v Dublin 33.3

Mayo v Kerry 33.3
Mayo v Galway 0
Mayo v Derry 33.3
Mayo v Dublin 33.3

So my prediction is

Armagh v Galway
Mayo v Derry
Cork v Dublin
Clare v Kerry

[onefineday]

So if my maths are correct.
The likelihood of each match up is as follows.

Armagh v Kerry 33.3
Armagh v Galway 33.3
Armagh v Derry 16.7
Armagh v Dublin 16.7

Clare v Kerry 33.3
Clare v Galway 33.3
Clare v Derry 16.7
Clare v Dublin 16.7

Cork v Kerry 0
Cork v Galway 33.3
Cork v Derry 33.3
Cork v Dublin 33.3

Mayo v Kerry 33.3
Mayo v Galway 0
Mayo v Derry 33.3
Mayo v Dublin 33.3

So my prediction is

Armagh v Galway
Mayo v Derry
Cork v Dublin
Clare v Kerry

That's my understanding, I'm happy to agree to your numbers, seem in the right ballpark!

But I'll go with cork v Derry and mayo v Dublin.

[GAABoardMod5]

How will they conduct the draw, knowing that Kerry and Galway have restrictions on playing Cork and Mayo respectively? 

Will it be like the World Cup groups where they slide a team to the next pairing? 

[Never beat the deeler]

How will they conduct the draw, knowing that Kerry and Galway have restrictions on playing Cork and Mayo respectively? 

Will it be like the World Cup groups where they slide a team to the next pairing?

Looks like it

The draw is subject to Provincial Final Winners avoiding defeated finalists from their own province, and to the avoidance of any other repeat pairings. Possible repeat pairings are Galway v Mayo and Kerry v Cork. If a repeat pairing is drawn, the Round 2 team will be moved to the next line of the draw and another Round 2 team will be drawn to play the relevant Provincial winner.

https://www.gaa.ie/football/news/all-ireland-sfc-quarter-final-draw-details/

[Never beat the deeler]

How will they conduct the draw, knowing that Kerry and Galway have restrictions on playing Cork and Mayo respectively? 

Will it be like the World Cup groups where they slide a team to the next pairing?

Looks like it

The draw is subject to Provincial Final Winners avoiding defeated finalists from their own province, and to the avoidance of any other repeat pairings. Possible repeat pairings are Galway v Mayo and Kerry v Cork. If a repeat pairing is drawn, the Round 2 team will be moved to the next line of the draw and another Round 2 team will be drawn to play the relevant Provincial winner.

https://www.gaa.ie/football/news/all-ireland-sfc-quarter-final-draw-details/

So if they draw them in the order shown on the website (Galway v _, Derry v _, Dublin then Kerry), Mayo have a 50% chance of being drawn against Derry.
If they did it that way and Cork were the last team out, would they just have to start again?

[thejuice]

I'd like to see

Galway vs Armagh
Mayo vs Kerry
Cork vs Dublin
Derry vs Clare.

[GAABoardMod5]

How will they conduct the draw, knowing that Kerry and Galway have restrictions on playing Cork and Mayo respectively? 

Will it be like the World Cup groups where they slide a team to the next pairing?

Looks like it

The draw is subject to Provincial Final Winners avoiding defeated finalists from their own province, and to the avoidance of any other repeat pairings. Possible repeat pairings are Galway v Mayo and Kerry v Cork. If a repeat pairing is drawn, the Round 2 team will be moved to the next line of the draw and another Round 2 team will be drawn to play the relevant Provincial winner.

https://www.gaa.ie/football/news/all-ireland-sfc-quarter-final-draw-details/

So if they draw them in the order shown on the website (Galway v _, Derry v _, Dublin then Kerry), Mayo have a 50% chance of being drawn against Derry.
If they did it that way and Cork were the last team out, would they just have to start again?

The counties with restrictions should be the first two...then it gets done in one go. 

[Manning18]

So if my maths are correct.
The likelihood of each match up is as follows.

Armagh v Kerry 33.3
Armagh v Galway 33.3
Armagh v Derry 16.7
Armagh v Dublin 16.7

Clare v Kerry 33.3
Clare v Galway 33.3
Clare v Derry 16.7
Clare v Dublin 16.7

Cork v Kerry 0
Cork v Galway 33.3
Cork v Derry 33.3
Cork v Dublin 33.3

Mayo v Kerry 33.3
Mayo v Galway 0
Mayo v Derry 33.3
Mayo v Dublin 33.3

So my prediction is

Armagh v Galway
Mayo v Derry
Cork v Dublin
Clare v Kerry

It's circa 40% for Mayo v Kerry and Galway v Cork over the other options as Cork can't meet Kerry and Mayo can't meet Galway. Otherwise correct. It basically gives Kerry an extra chance of drawing out Mayo through the drop down method described in the draw details, although a few things have to happen to ensure that

[tonto1888]

armagh galway
kerry mayo
cork dublin
derry clare

[GAABoardMod5]

I'm hearing through the grapevine that HQ want the quarter-final draw to be the same outline as the semi-final draw, that is, Ulster v Connacht and Leinster v Munster, with winners of one province playing the beaten finalist in the other (same as the minor draw).

Meaning the draw is:

Derry v Roscommon or Clare, unless Monaghan or Tyrone beat Roscommon

Galway v Donegal or Armagh, unless Mayo beat Donegal

Dublin v Limerick or Cork , unless Meath beat Limerick

Kerry v Kildare or Mayo , unless Cork beat Kildare.


What happens if one or more of the "unless" things happens is anyone's guess at this stage - will see how it looks after this weekends games and the draw, I suppose.


Not sure if all that makes sense, but that's what I heard and want to get it out there before any conspiracy theories start.


Edit: I think I have the "unless" parts correct on avoiding repeat fixtures...remember beaten provincial finalist can't meet each other, so Donegal can't meet Roscommon so Donegal v Derry cannot recur, same way Galway and Roscommon cannot recur.  Edit 2: Likewise, Kildare can't meet Limerick.


Or am I getting my explanation all wrong?


Edit 3 to reflect June 4 results: Monaghan and Meath out.
Edit 4: Tyrone out
Edit 5:  Getting clearer now...

Meaning the draw is:

Derry v Roscommon or Clare

Galway v Donegal or Armagh

Dublin v Limerick or Cork

Kerry v Kildare or Mayo

Although latest story is they forgot to put this procedure in the overall plan for 2022, so it's looking like an open draw with no repeat pairings if possible.

Edit 13June before official draw.

Well Well Well....

[Wildweasel74]

Juice / mod, u got sthing to tell us, mystic Meg.

[galwayman]

Worst draw for us. Would have taken Clare or Cork to be honest.
Certainly capable of winning it at the same time but will have to bring our A game to have a chance.

[tonto1888]

Worst draw for us. Would have taken Clare or Cork to be honest.
Certainly capable of winning it at the same time but will have to bring our A game to have a chance.

it's certainly a 50/50 game