Ophelia

[J70]

Haven't seen this mentioned here yet. Hope the hay's in the shed!



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents

[Hereiam]

Always keep an eye on the NOAA Hurricane website 10+ yrs and have never seen a cone over these islands. All up in the air as to the path of this system with models taking it more to the west of Ireland but we should know better tomorrow evening.
One thing for sure is that there will be some good surfing conditions on the south & west coasts.

[armaghniac]

One thing for sure is that there will be some good surfing conditions on the south & west coasts.

There'll likely be good surfing 2 or 3 Km inland, in a flat area!!

[Denn Forever]

Thought this was going to a discussion on Hamlet.  Because it wasn't started by Tony I hoppedit wasn't going to a discussion on falling Vocations in tnhe western world.

[omagh_gael]

Ophelia now upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane and looks set to maintain hurricane status as it reaches Ireland  (SW corner). Cork, Kerry etc going to experience serious (potentially threatening) winds during Monday morning and rest of the country vulnerable to significant damage. With trees still well foilaged and ground quite wet, the chances of uprooted trees is extremely high.

Fascinating times if you're into your meteorology.

[armaghniac]

Ophelia now upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane and looks set to maintain hurricane status as it reaches Ireland  (SW corner). Cork, Kerry etc going to experience serious (potentially threatening) winds during Monday morning and rest of the country vulnerable to significant damage. With trees still well foilaged and ground quite wet, the chances of uprooted trees is extremely high.

Fascinating times if you're into your meteorology.

This "maintaining" hurricane status is very doubtful.
The water is not warm enough at these latitudes for a hurricane, and while there may be some hurricane force gusts  it will not be a hurricane.

One point made was that the wind circulation will be from the East in Kerry and many people have put things sheltered from the West wind, so oil tanks etc might blow over.

[blast05]

There are lots of different criteria for a hurricane. None of that matters. All that matters is that this is certainly going to be a massive wind event for large tracts of the country... possibly the biggest wind event since 1961

[magpie seanie]

I think we're a bit blasé about it to tell you the truth. Bus Eireann have cancelled school bus services in Cork, Kerry, Clare, Galway and Mayo - surely schools will close too? I threw a few sandbags out at my parents house just in case.

[armaghniac]

Update on Storm Ophelia

14 October 2017

As of midday Saturday, Hurricane Ophelia situated at approx. 2,500km southwest of Ireland and 500km south-southwest of the Azores in the Atlantic Ocean is currently tracking east-northeast. The latest information from our colleagues in the National Hurricane Centre in Miami indicates that Ophelia will become a powerful post-tropical cyclone (from thereon in ex-Hurricane Ophelia) by Monday, and there is now generally high confidence that the centre of this system will track close to and possibly even over some parts of the west coast of Ireland.

Ex-Hurricane Ophelia is expected to be near the southwest tip of Ireland by Monday morning. From there it looks set to track northwards close to the Atlantic Seaboard at a fast pace to be roughly situated 100-200km northwest of County Donegal by midnight on Monday.

This will be a significant weather event for Ireland with potentially high impacts – structural damage and flooding (particularly coastal) - and people are advised to take extreme care Keep up to date with the warnings.

Met Éireann forecasters have been monitoring this situation closely all week. We have been liaising with our international colleagues, especially at the UK Met Office, and as we are now in the 48 hour window, with access to our high resolution models, we have decided to issue specific warnings. The warnings will be updated as required.

For further information on the evolution of this system, please continue reading.

What will happen with Hurricane Ophelia?

Hurricane Ophelia is expected to undergo an extra-tropical transition over the next 24 to 36 hours. That means its structure and appearance is going to undergo drastic changes as it approaches Ireland. It will lose its hurricane status but will become a powerful extra-tropical storm. Current indications are suggesting that Ex-Hurricane Ophelia will likely engage with an upper trough of low pressure in the mid-Atlantic at some point tomorrow afternoon. This engagement will cause the storm system to accelerate somewhat north-northeast towards Ireland and the UK.

Why will this happen?

As Hurricane Ophelia tracks north from its current position, it will encounter cooler seas and it will eventually come under the influence of the westerlies. The westerlies of the mid-latitudes increase in strength with height, a phenomenon known as vertical wind shear. This shear almost literally chops off the upper part of the hurricane and sweeps it away. Along with the lower sea temperatures of the mid-latitudes this destroys the positive feedback processes within the hurricane. What remains is the former hurricane's low-level circulation which, if conditions are right, becomes the focus of further development.

What weather is expected?

Rain can be expected over the country on Sunday night and into Monday, though the heaviest and most significant rain will remain out to sea in the Atlantic on the western side of the surface low pressure. But there will also be some heavy and possibly thundery bursts rotating around the low centre itself, so it can be reasonably assumed that counties closest to the centre of the low will see the heaviest rainfall.

At the same time, damaging winds will accompany the low centre with wind gusts of 130km/h or more. The most severe winds will be in coastal counties, with lower impacts likely for central areas. In addition, we can expect very high waves. Sea conditions will be dangerous and large waves may lead to coastal flooding.

[Syferus]

Can't imagine what the coast is going to be like on Monday. Hopefully no one does anything stupid, like jump off the prom in Salthill..

[FL/MAYO]

Weather Underground is usually spot on with it's tracking. I  checked it every 6 hours when Hurricane Irma was tracking this way last month. Looks like tropical storm winds for the West of Ireland, there's usually a lot of rain with this type of storm.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/hurricane-ophelia

[armaghniac]

Not many of us remember 1961, this will be a point of reference for the future.

[Orchard park]

Can't imagine what the coast is going to be like on Monday. Hopefully no one does anything stupid, like jump off the prom in Salthill..

No doubt there will be pricks thinking it's their entitlement  to surf

[ONeill]

Hope we've the wind in the first half

[T Fearon]

Surely since it's coming to Ireland this ex Hurricane should be renamed O'Phelia.