Eighth Amendment poll

[sid waddell]

The youngest person with down syndrome in Iceland is 20. Clearly they have a cultural policy to eliminate the weakest or those who do not conform to some ideal model. Shame on them, hopefully Ireland does not head the same way. What choice did these babies have or were the parents coerced into making their decision. Progressive society not. Savita Halapanavar died of sepsis not for the need of an abortion. I will be voting no, I do feel huge sympathy for couples with cases of ffa.

Can't let this go. She died of sepsis because she was denied the proper medical treatment to save her life because of concerns of her doctors over the 8th amendment. It couldn't be clearer. She wouldn't have died in most countries in the world as it wouldn't have been in question.

Cant let this go either. A huge number of prominent consultants have came out and clearly explained the doctors in this case fucked up, nothing in the 8th amendment should have caused the death of SH.

Let's be quite clear on this. Any doctors who say that the 8th Amendment played no role in Savita's death are lying.

Any doctors who say that the 8th Amendment does not prevent women getting essential healthcare that they need and should have a right to, are lying.

Categorically lying.

We know this, because for every doctor that says it, there are numerous women who have stories that categorically disprove it.

And for those doctors to be correct, every single story from every woman would have to be a lie.

Does anybody in their right mind think every single one of these stories from women is a lie?

[sid waddell]

I'm saying that I struggle with the notion that a foetus / child can be killed and then offered a Christian service.

I think that what Norwegian system conveys is that, to them as a society abortion is a necessary evil.  However, the doctors interviewed conveyed that it was not something they were entirely comfortable with.  The whole treatment with chaplin and acknowledgement of the baby (especially later term babies) is a reflection of the fact that this is a serious and moral matter.   It's a case that abortion is legal but not taken lightly.

/Jim.

Good points Jim. There is no perfect solution. I'm voting Yes as I believe what's on the table is the (much) lesser of two evils. I don't know anyone who is "pro-abortion"....in fact the notion is patently ridiculous. I've just listened to a "debate" on OceanFM radio where the wonderful Declan Ganley (in between waffling and ignoring every question he was asked) maintained several times it is a simple black and white choice - you're either for abortion or against it. Anyone with any level of intelligence knows it's not black and white. So the constitution is not the place to deal with the issue. Legislation is and for those who "don't trust" politicians - listen to this....The citizens assembly proposed a more liberal 22 weeks but it was the Oireachtas committee that reduced the limit to the proposed 12 weeks. And I've outlines time and again here why that's a common sense approach to deal with the realities of what's happening today.

There's a real similarity here between hard Brexit and the 8th Amendment.

Both are deeply simplistic, black and white, deluded, utterly unworkable ideas which hark back to the 1940s, and to which the concept of nuance is an affront.

Supporters of both simply do not understand you cannot turn the clock back to a previous time.

And the supporters of both hard Brexit and the 8th Amendment don't give a flying sheet about the real consequences for Irish people.

194,000 more people voted to give Irish women the explicit right to have an abortion in 1992 than voted for the 8th Amendment in 1983.

That is irrefutable proof that the deepest hypocrisy existed and still exists about Irish people's attitude to abortion.

The dirty little secret the No campaign has is that the 8th Amendment relies for its existence on Britiain's abortion laws.

If, hypothetically, Britain banned abortion tomorrow morning, No campaigners in Ireland would be fuming, because they would no longer have the safety valve that is necessary to indulge their delusion that abortion doesn't happen in Ireland.

To put it another way, the 8th Amendment is umbilically tied to Britain's abortion laws, which offer it protection like a foetus is protected by a mother's womb.

To survive, the 8th Amendment needs legalised abortion in Britain.

The 8th Amendment is fundamentally about delusion, illusion and cowardice - the delusion of the idea of Holy Catlick Oireland which was built up in opposition to Cruel, Godless England, the illusion that abortion isn't happening in Ireland, and the cowardice of abandoning the women who live in this state who feel they need an abortion.

Christonabike, you're the worst debater I've ever come across. You do exactly what you accuse the No campaigners of, and for all your plethora of posts, you would have convinced not a single person who was undecided to vote Yes. Just like the opposite headcases on the No side you give out about would have convinced nobody to vote No. 

The stuff about the No campaign being upset if the UK banned abortion is absolute and utter nonsense. Most people on the No side are just not comfortable with blanket abortions up to 12 weeks. So I'm sure they would be delighted if UK banned it. People wanting abortions would presumably go to Iceland or Italy or somewhere else.

"You're the worst debater I've ever come cross"
"headcase"

Oh, the irony.

I don't see much "respect" there. And not much debate either.

I'm not posting here to persuade people. I'm posting here to tell people the truth.

It's up to individuals to decide if they're on the side of the truth or on the side of bullshit.

If anybody is persuaded by the truth, then great - if they want to continue to believe in bullshit - well, that's their choice.

[Hound]

Almost certainly decided that I'm voting Yes, although not with any comfort.

I'm against abortion in principal, but willing to have some access to it in certain circumstances.
I would be absolutely dead against a late term abortion of a baby, FFA apart, and certainly whether the father was a rapist or not would not change my view that aborting such a baby/foetus would be akin to murder. For me that's from week 24 on.

I'd be absolutely in favour of easy access to a morning after pill to prevent a pregnancy (I haven't looked into this, but presumably there are good reasons why women don't have a jar of these in their medical compartment ready to take if required?) or other pills that would dissolve the cells that formed a zygote within a week or so of pregnancy.

My problem is where do I draw the line between Week 1 and Week 24. When does "it" become a baby?

Based on my own personal experiences, I think Week 12 is a reasonable pragmatic limit that I can l live with.  I've had friends and family who have had miscarriages, and abortions in England, at around that time (four in total). And while it was always a difficult and sometimes traumatic experience for both the men and the women (although particularly the women of course), there was no sense of mourning a death.

I can get my head around believing that the zygote/foetus is not turned into a baby before 12 weeks, so a termination for any reason is nothing more than a medical procedure that ends a pregnancy. And I don't believe politicians would work to increase that limit willy nilly. 

[gallsman]

The youngest person with down syndrome in Iceland is 20. Clearly they have a cultural policy to eliminate the weakest or those who do not conform to some ideal model. Shame on them, hopefully Ireland does not head the same way. What choice did these babies have or were the parents coerced into making their decision. Progressive society not. Savita Halapanavar died of sepsis not for the need of an abortion. I will be voting no, I do feel huge sympathy for couples with cases of ffa.

Can't let this go. She died of sepsis because she was denied the proper medical treatment to save her life because of concerns of her doctors over the 8th amendment. It couldn't be clearer. She wouldn't have died in most countries in the world as it wouldn't have been in question.

Cant let this go either. A huge number of prominent consultants have came out and clearly explained the doctors in this case fucked up, nothing in the 8th amendment should have caused the death of SH.

Name and quote them and please indicate the level of access and knowledge they have about this case.

The official report is above. You wish to refute it so you'll need to do better than what you've said.

Even if you're right, it shows there is at best confusion among highly paid and educated professionals about the 8th amendment which is leading to improper treatment of women.

I wouldn't expect much, Rudi appears to be quite fond of posting manufactured facts and figures without anything backing it up. Still waiting to hear about a source for the youngest person in Iceland with Down's Syndrome being 20.

[gallsman]

Here's my own calcs on that

So I did a bit of my own research and maths on this...

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/679028/Abortions_stats_England_Wales_2016.pdf

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/birthsummarytablesenglandandwales/2016

2016
England and Wales births: 696 271
E&W abortions: 185 596

That works out at 1 in 3.75

Now the miscarriage question is a complicated one, for a start it varies hugely on gestational age and a whole range of other factors for the baby and mother.

https://expectingscience.com/2015/08/26/lies-damned-lies-and-miscarriage-statistics/

The first 5/6 weeks the risk is very high and it will likely skew the overall figure, so perhaps that is where the 1 in 6 comes from. However at 6 weeks the fetus seems to average a 10% (1 in 10) chance of miscarriage and tapering off to 5% (1 in 20) at 8 weeks and further decrease as the pregnancy progresses.
Most abortions are carried out between 5-10 weeks when it seems the risk is for the sake of argument probably around 1 in 10. Its likely less but if someone wants to do the math tear away, and also the mothers age of abortions is lower which would mean they are more likely to survive and not to mention the repeat miscarriages from mother who want to have a successful pregnancy. I think it is likely more like 1 in 15 but we will go with the 1 in 10 as a safety factor.

So working that 1 in 10 into the original stats it works out at  1 in 4.16.

I open to corrections of course but all in all the 1 in 4 doesn't look like a gross exaggeration that its depicted.

This is also only one year of course but if someone wants to do a few more years be my guest

Your calcs are wrong. Whether deliberately and disingenuously so, only you can clarify.

You've divided the number of abortions into the number of births, rather than the number of total pregnancies (the sum of the two). Even ignoring miscarriages (which further lowers the stat), it becomes 1 in 4.75 rather than 1 in 3.75 as you claim.

[sid waddell]

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/amendment-limiting-abortion-to-rape-cases-unworkable-say-former-ags-1.3495785

An alternative amendment to the Constitution that would deal with abortion in cases of rape and incest would be unworkable, two former attorneys general and an ex-Supreme Court judge have said.

John Rogers SC, Michael McDowell SC and Ms Justice Catherine McGuinness said so-called "hard cases" can be dealt only by repealing the Eighth Amendment, which gives equal right to life to the mother and the unborn.

Mr McDowell also said that if the Amendment is not repealed in the referendum on May 25th, people who purchase abortion pills are liable to be prosecuted.

"People will commit offences and they will be liable to be criminally punished," he said, adding that a girl could be sent "before a court because she has availed of the abortion pill".

https://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/unborn-protected-if-eighth-repealed-468082.html

Unborn children will still be protected in Irish law even if the Eighth Amendment is repealed, the Cabinet has been told.

Attorney General Seamus Woulfe confirmed the situation at yesterday's meeting in response to concerns from ministers opposed to plans to allow abortion up to the 12th week of pregnancy and claims the that unborn will have no rights under the new rules.

In a briefing to ministers as Cabinet signed off on the referendum bill and the official "repeal and enable legislation" referendum question wording, he said the "common good" protection still applied.

While confirming the Supreme Court's decision on Wednesday that the right to life for the unborn does not extend to other rights, the attorney general said section 10.63 of the court's judgment said the unborn child is neither constitutionally nor "legally invisible".

The State is entitled to take account of the respect which is due to human life as a factor which may be taken into account as an aspect of the common good in legislating, Mr Woulfe is understood to have said.

[omaghjoe]

Here's my own calcs on that

So I did a bit of my own research and maths on this...

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/679028/Abortions_stats_England_Wales_2016.pdf

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/birthsummarytablesenglandandwales/2016

2016
England and Wales births: 696 271
E&W abortions: 185 596

That works out at 1 in 3.75

Now the miscarriage question is a complicated one, for a start it varies hugely on gestational age and a whole range of other factors for the baby and mother.

https://expectingscience.com/2015/08/26/lies-damned-lies-and-miscarriage-statistics/

The first 5/6 weeks the risk is very high and it will likely skew the overall figure, so perhaps that is where the 1 in 6 comes from. However at 6 weeks the fetus seems to average a 10% (1 in 10) chance of miscarriage and tapering off to 5% (1 in 20) at 8 weeks and further decrease as the pregnancy progresses.
Most abortions are carried out between 5-10 weeks when it seems the risk is for the sake of argument probably around 1 in 10. Its likely less but if someone wants to do the math tear away, and also the mothers age of abortions is lower which would mean they are more likely to survive and not to mention the repeat miscarriages from mother who want to have a successful pregnancy. I think it is likely more like 1 in 15 but we will go with the 1 in 10 as a safety factor.

So working that 1 in 10 into the original stats it works out at  1 in 4.16.

I open to corrections of course but all in all the 1 in 4 doesn't look like a gross exaggeration that its depicted.

This is also only one year of course but if someone wants to do a few more years be my guest

Your calcs are wrong. Whether deliberately and disingenuously so, only you can clarify.

You've divided the number of abortions into the number of births, rather than the number of total pregnancies (the sum of the two). Even ignoring miscarriages (which further lowers the stat), it becomes 1 in 4.75 rather than 1 in 3.75 as you claim.

Disingenuously and deliberately? I think that either way your implying that it wasn't a genuine mistake which it was, do you really think I would I have been as open as I was about corrections if I was putting in a deliberate mistake.
 
But yes elementary error there, so lets get it corrected, I also spotted another error in my calculations for factoring in the miscarriages. They should be factored onto miscarriages only not the births.
Which would leaves the abortions at 168723 using my conservative 1in 10 ratio.
This leaves us at 1 in 5.12...
If anyone wants to dispute this please do so.

Also just for the record to get it up to 1 in 5.5  well that would mean that 1 in 5 pregnancies end in miscarriage, which is seriously pushing it. To get the ration to 1 in 5.0 then the miscarriage rate would be 1 in 16 which is probably not unreasonable considering all the risk factors I would be fairly confident in saying that the correct number lies between 1 in 5 and 1 in 5.5, most likely low 5s.

[Syferus]

You're suddenly a miscarriage percentage expert now too?

[trueblue1234]

You're suddenly a miscarriage percentage expert now too?

lol This post should be framed.

[gallsman]

Your calcs are wrong. Whether deliberately and disingenuously so, only you can clarify.

You've divided the number of abortions into the number of births, rather than the number of total pregnancies (the sum of the two). Even ignoring miscarriages (which further lowers the stat), it becomes 1 in 4.75 rather than 1 in 3.75 as you claim.

Disingenuously and deliberately? I think that either way your implying that it wasn't a genuine mistake which it was, do you really think I would I have been as open as I was about corrections if I was putting in a deliberate mistake.

Very touchy given I didn't have a dig at you at all.

The reason I thought it might have been done deliberately or disingenuously (happy to hear you deny it and admit the mistake instead) was because we're talking about a mistake in basic arithmetic that my 11 year old niece in primary school wouldn't have made.

(See now, that was a dig)

[Rudi]

The youngest person with down syndrome in Iceland is 20. Clearly they have a cultural policy to eliminate the weakest or those who do not conform to some ideal model. Shame on them, hopefully Ireland does not head the same way. What choice did these babies have or were the parents coerced into making their decision. Progressive society not. Savita Halapanavar died of sepsis not for the need of an abortion. I will be voting no, I do feel huge sympathy for couples with cases of ffa.

Can't let this go. She died of sepsis because she was denied the proper medical treatment to save her life because of concerns of her doctors over the 8th amendment. It couldn't be clearer. She wouldn't have died in most countries in the world as it wouldn't have been in question.

Cant let this go either. A huge number of prominent consultants have came out and clearly explained the doctors in this case fucked up, nothing in the 8th amendment should have caused the death of SH.

Name and quote them and please indicate the level of access and knowledge they have about this case.

The official report is above. You wish to refute it so you'll need to do better than what you've said.

Even if you're right, it shows there is at best confusion among highly paid and educated professionals about the 8th amendment which is leading to improper treatment of women.

I wouldn't expect much, Rudi appears to be quite fond of posting manufactured facts and figures without anything backing it up. Still waiting to hear about a source for the youngest person in Iceland with Down's Syndrome being 20.

I read it heard it on the six one news various sources. I don't have time to post links. More over I don't need to justify myself or any quote to you.

[omaghjoe]

Your calcs are wrong. Whether deliberately and disingenuously so, only you can clarify.

You've divided the number of abortions into the number of births, rather than the number of total pregnancies (the sum of the two). Even ignoring miscarriages (which further lowers the stat), it becomes 1 in 4.75 rather than 1 in 3.75 as you claim.

Disingenuously and deliberately? I think that either way your implying that it wasn't a genuine mistake which it was, do you really think I would I have been as open as I was about corrections if I was putting in a deliberate mistake.

Very touchy given I didn't have a dig at you at all.

The reason I thought it might have been done deliberately or disingenuously (happy to hear you deny it and admit the mistake instead) was because we're talking about a mistake in basic arithmetic that my 11 year old niece in primary school wouldn't have made.

(See now, that was a dig)

Nothing to add to the stats then?

[gallsman]

So you've no evidence to back it up at? Thanks for the clarification.

As for having to justify yourself to me, no of course you don't. But if you want to engage in a debate and pontificate about statistics rather than say, be an absolute prat, then yes, you do have to back up any assertions you make with evidence.

I'll actually just save you all the trouble - you're a liar.

[mrdeeds]

Got a leaflet in letterbox today from no side with Cristiano Ronaldo's picture on it saying he wouldn't exist if abortion was an option.

[omaghjoe]

So, everybody, are we agreed that the 14 year prison term on the statute books for abortion should be abolished?

And replaced with 0 years and 0 days?

No... for a repeat offender getting an abortion at 38 weeks to spite the husband 14years seems sort of light