Westminster Election 12th December 2019

[tbrick18]

Looking at the figures Boris will win this election by a very large margin.

Way too early to tell that!! Also he's had a bad couple of days on the campaign trail so far this thing will close and it'll be a hung parliament!

I am worried this may be the outcome.

If it is then it's the end of Corbyn so basically it's the end of Corbyn or the end of Johnson I expect. I would rather see Johnson finished than Corbyn but I think it is a matter of time and the right circumstances before Corbyn is ousted anyway. I think this could be them.

I don't get why so many want to see the end of Corbyn.
Looking at the leaders of all the main parties, he's the only one who seems to be genuine when it comes to the NHS, the poor, the students and workers.
Forgetting about Brexit for a second, these are things that actually affect people currently and will continue to do so in the future.
I see lots of comments about anyone being better than Corbyn so they are voting Tory to keep him out but from my perspective, anyone is better than any Tory. I personally like Corbyn's politics.

I think Boris and Farage will do a deal and it could well still be as drastic as being a no-deal Brexit being the arrangement.
This could give the Tories a majority. Without that deal, I think it will only ever be a hung parliament.
I think Lib Dems will increase their share of the vote with the Remain promise, Labour will win in some areas and lose to UKIP/Tories in others with their promise of a people's vote.
I wonder would LibDems and Labour team up to form a coalition in the case of a hung parliament?

I terms of the local MPs, I'd like to see almost any opportunity taken to reduce the DUP representation in Westminster.
They are toxic.
To the point, that in the absence of any official pact with Alliance/SDLP I'd hope SF will decide not to run a candidate in certain constituencies to ensure a remain candidate is returned.
Their abstentionist policy wont change, so there is a need to look at the bigger picture on how they can influence proceedings in Westminster. Personally, I think Alliance have some excellent options and for SDLP I think Hanna is very good. I think they could represent the majority of the people here in terms of Brexit opinion.

[imtommygunn]

Corbyn isn't a fan of Zionists and various other high powered people who are up to no good. These people have power enough to ruin someone like that unfortunately. The anit semitism thing is in my view a smear campaign.

Agreed anything can be done to get the DUP out is what people should be after. In my constituency Pengelly is in and should never be. Hopefully Hanna will get in instead of her but the nationalist vote is very split whereas the unionist vote isn't at all which causes the problem.

Some reckon the DUP will go from 10 to 6. I'd love to see it but I think it may just be wishful thinking.

[Owenmoresider]

Obvious thing to do in Sth and Nth Belfast is whichever Nationalist party got the highest vote to stand and the other step aside.
Of course historically SF, the Irish Government etc should have insisted on PR being used in ALL 6 Co Elections ach sin scéal eile...

They are used in elections in NI for Assembly and councils, but this is a UK wide election so you can hardly run it in the North on a completely different form to how it operates in Britain. They had the chance to remove FPTP in 2011 but it was rejected, so that's that.

[seafoid]

Corbyn isn't a fan of Zionists and various other high powered people who are up to no good. These people have power enough to ruin someone like that unfortunately. The anit semitism thing is in my view a smear campaign.

Agreed anything can be done to get the DUP out is what people should be after. In my constituency Pengelly is in and should never be. Hopefully Hanna will get in instead of her but the nationalist vote is very split whereas the unionist vote isn't at all which causes the problem.

Some reckon the DUP will go from 10 to 6. I'd love to see it but I think it may just be wishful thinking.

There is a 3 way civil war in the UK

The Tories have a neo victorian economic policy that will drive down incomes and mitigate it with cheaper food like chlorinated chicken
The Lib Dems are neoliberal so want more austerity
Labout are socialist and want to reform the economy so it works for ordinary people

The hatred of Corbyn comes from people who benefit from the status quo. That includes Zionists.

[marty34]

Key Battleground of South Belfast:

Brexit Referendum 2016:
Total electorate: 66,664
Turnout: 44,583 (66.9%), 3/18.
Votes to REMAIN: 30,960 (69.5%);
Votes to LEAVE: 13,596 (30.5%).
Third highest REMAIN vote share in Northern Ireland

Westminster Election 2017:
Emma Little Pengelly (DUP) 13,299 (30.4%)
Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 11,303 (25.9%)
Paula Bradshaw (Alliance) 7,946 (18.2%)
Máirtín Ó Muilleoir (SF) 7,143 (16.3%)
Clare Bailey (Green) 2,241 (5.1%)
Michael Henderson (UUP) 1,527 (3.5%)
Clare Salier (Con) 246 (0.6%)

Surely the Pro-Remain parties must do a election pack here, but if they do who gets the free run? It either have to be Claire Hanna (SDLP) or Paula Bradshaw (Alliance). Views Folks??

Sinn Fein need to get out of here and let Hanna have a run at it ... it's a done deal if they do sure McDonnell was useless and nearly ousted Pengelly last time!

Let Hanna have a free run there - the solicitor a free run in NB and Alliance a free run in East Belfast.

SF and SDLP can fight it out in Derry but it's a win for SDLP as unionists will vote for Eastwood. Personally zI think Eastwood is poor.  Every election, he's in there, always about him and his profile.  Another mess by the SDLP in regards their 'leader' in Westminister - they can't make their mind up can they/can they not have their leader in London.  They change their mind - speaking about that what's the bet Stevie renages on his statement of standing Ulster unionists in every area?

I'd love to get Dodds get the boot in Nth. Belfast so all effort should go into that.

The problem is, as usual, there doesn't seem to be agreement in the Remain parties - SF/SDLP/Alliance and Greens etc. and it would be a serious balls up if the DUP, as Brexiteers, take the majority of the seats.  It would send out a bad statement.

That would make sense but it means remain parties setting aside their own narrow ambitions for the greater good and I'm not sure whether that will happen although they have fought a fairly united battle on Brexit related issues so we can hope.

Can't see too many unionists voting for Eastwood since he will take his seat in Westminster and might have some influence as a remainer however minor that is. Think it will be tight between SF and SDLP in Derry & Strabane. Finucane has to find 2,000 votes on Dodds and you would have to think that this will only be possible if SDLP step aside. An agreement for SF to step aside in South Belfast to allow Hanna get in and for SDLP to do likewise in north Belfast to give Finucane a chance would make sense.   

You're right - seems there's too many egos on the Remain side to sort out a pact.

Unlike the unionists!!! From now on, every election will be for the DUP.  It'll be a DUP headcount and we can see that now with the pressure being put on their new leader.  UU could be wiped out this time.

Re: Derry. I think Unionists will vote tactically to keep Mc A out. Simple as that.  They know their votes matters in a tight count.

We all know this is the simole solution for the pro EU parties regarding NB, SB and EB but it'll be interesting to see over next few days. 

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

Key Battleground of South Belfast:

Brexit Referendum 2016:
Total electorate: 66,664
Turnout: 44,583 (66.9%), 3/18.
Votes to REMAIN: 30,960 (69.5%);
Votes to LEAVE: 13,596 (30.5%).
Third highest REMAIN vote share in Northern Ireland

Westminster Election 2017:
Emma Little Pengelly (DUP) 13,299 (30.4%)
Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 11,303 (25.9%)
Paula Bradshaw (Alliance) 7,946 (18.2%)
Máirtín Ó Muilleoir (SF) 7,143 (16.3%)
Clare Bailey (Green) 2,241 (5.1%)
Michael Henderson (UUP) 1,527 (3.5%)
Clare Salier (Con) 246 (0.6%)

Surely the Pro-Remain parties must do a election pack here, but if they do who gets the free run? It either have to be Claire Hanna (SDLP) or Paula Bradshaw (Alliance). Views Folks??

Sinn Fein need to get out of here and let Hanna have a run at it ... it's a done deal if they do sure McDonnell was useless and nearly ousted Pengelly last time!

Let Hanna have a free run there - the solicitor a free run in NB and Alliance a free run in East Belfast.

SF and SDLP can fight it out in Derry but it's a win for SDLP as unionists will vote for Eastwood. Personally zI think Eastwood is poor.  Every election, he's in there, always about him and his profile.  Another mess by the SDLP in regards their 'leader' in Westminister - they can't make their mind up can they/can they not have their leader in London.  They change their mind - speaking about that what's the bet Stevie renages on his statement of standing Ulster unionists in every area?

I'd love to get Dodds get the boot in Nth. Belfast so all effort should go into that.

The problem is, as usual, there doesn't seem to be agreement in the Remain parties - SF/SDLP/Alliance and Greens etc. and it would be a serious balls up if the DUP, as Brexiteers, take the majority of the seats.  It would send out a bad statement.

That would make sense but it means remain parties setting aside their own narrow ambitions for the greater good and I'm not sure whether that will happen although they have fought a fairly united battle on Brexit related issues so we can hope.

Can't see too many unionists voting for Eastwood since he will take his seat in Westminster and might have some influence as a remainer however minor that is. Think it will be tight between SF and SDLP in Derry & Strabane. Finucane has to find 2,000 votes on Dodds and you would have to think that this will only be possible if SDLP step aside. An agreement for SF to step aside in South Belfast to allow Hanna get in and for SDLP to do likewise in north Belfast to give Finucane a chance would make sense.   

You're right - seems there's too many egos on the Remain side to sort out a pact.

Unlike the unionists!!! From now on, every election will be for the DUP.  It'll be a DUP headcount and we can see that now with the pressure being put on their new leader.  UU could be wiped out this time.

Re: Derry. I think Unionists will vote tactically to keep Mc A out. Simple as that.  They know their votes matters in a tight count.

We all know this is the simole solution for the pro EU parties regarding NB, SB and EB but it'll be interesting to see over next few days.

It all depends on how many votes Anne McCloskey takes from SF and SDLP. Far bigger factor than the dubious "unionists voting for SDLP" factor. I have worked with a lot of unionists from Waterside and not one considered voting SDLP.

[Stall the Bailer]

The problem is, as usual, there doesn't seem to be agreement in the Remain parties -

Can't see too many unionists voting for Eastwood since he will take his seat in Westminster and might have some influence as a remainer however minor that is. Think it will be tight between SF and SDLP in Derry & Strabane. Finucane has to find 2,000 votes on Dodds and you would have to think that this will only be possible if SDLP step aside. An agreement for SF to step aside in South Belfast to allow Hanna get in and for SDLP to do likewise in north Belfast to give Finucane a chance would make sense.   

Strabane is in West Tyrone and not Foyle

[dec]

Sinn Fein need to get out of here and let Hanna have a run at it ... it's a done deal if they do sure McDonnell was useless and nearly ousted Pengelly last time!

Sinn Fein have no interest in the SDLP being successful. They would rather get to the situation where they are the only voice for nationalism in the north.

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

Sinn Fein need to get out of here and let Hanna have a run at it ... it's a done deal if they do sure McDonnell was useless and nearly ousted Pengelly last time!

Sinn Fein have no interest in the SDLP being successful. They would rather get to the situation where they are the only voice for nationalism in the north.

This

[Owenmoresider]

Sinn Fein need to get out of here and let Hanna have a run at it ... it's a done deal if they do sure McDonnell was useless and nearly ousted Pengelly last time!

Sinn Fein have no interest in the SDLP being successful. They would rather get to the situation where they are the only voice for nationalism in the north.

Ourselves alone indeed.

[Eamonnca1]

Betting odds:

No overall majority: 10/11
Tory majority: 6/5
Labour majority: 35/2
Any other party majority: 80/1

If the remain parties get their shit together and get the right pacts in place, I don't see the Tories getting a majority. My money would be on a hung parliament with Tories getting a plurality of seats, but remainer parties having a majority. Rainbow coalition government of Labour, Lib Dems, and SNP + others on the cards. LibDems will campaign on a Revoke Article 50 ticket, but will insist on second referendum as a compromise as a condition of coalition support. SNP will insist on Indyref II. Labour might reluctantly agree to it while hoping that if Brexit is cancelled then Scotland will vote to remain in the UK.

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

Sinn Fein need to get out of here and let Hanna have a run at it ... it's a done deal if they do sure McDonnell was useless and nearly ousted Pengelly last time!

Sinn Fein have no interest in the SDLP being successful. They would rather get to the situation where they are the only voice for nationalism in the north.

Ourselves alone indeed.

They were encouraging their voters to vote Alliance in locals to keep SDLP out

[Eamonnca1]

There are bigots on both sides. It's very blinkered, and naive,  to think otherwise.

Unionism is inherently homophobic, xenophobic, sectarian, and makes a point of blocking expressions of Irish culture at every turn.

Nationalism does not behave in that way. I don't buy this false equivalence.

[seafoid]

There are bigots on both sides. It's very blinkered, and naive,  to think otherwise.

Unionism is inherently homophobic, xenophobic, sectarian, and makes a point of blocking expressions of Irish culture at every turn.

Nationalism does not behave in that way. I don't buy this false equivalence.

Unionism is paranoid. The settler fear of the natives. Goes all the way back to 1641 and beyond. The symbols and the institutions.  They have no other proofs that they belong. Israel and the US are the same. Irish people don't have the same emptiness.

[marty34]

Key Battleground of South Belfast:

Brexit Referendum 2016:
Total electorate: 66,664
Turnout: 44,583 (66.9%), 3/18.
Votes to REMAIN: 30,960 (69.5%);
Votes to LEAVE: 13,596 (30.5%).
Third highest REMAIN vote share in Northern Ireland

Westminster Election 2017:
Emma Little Pengelly (DUP) 13,299 (30.4%)
Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 11,303 (25.9%)
Paula Bradshaw (Alliance) 7,946 (18.2%)
Máirtín Ó Muilleoir (SF) 7,143 (16.3%)
Clare Bailey (Green) 2,241 (5.1%)
Michael Henderson (UUP) 1,527 (3.5%)
Clare Salier (Con) 246 (0.6%)

Surely the Pro-Remain parties must do a election pack here, but if they do who gets the free run? It either have to be Claire Hanna (SDLP) or Paula Bradshaw (Alliance). Views Folks??

Sinn Fein need to get out of here and let Hanna have a run at it ... it's a done deal if they do sure McDonnell was useless and nearly ousted Pengelly last time!

Let Hanna have a free run there - the solicitor a free run in NB and Alliance a free run in East Belfast.

SF and SDLP can fight it out in Derry but it's a win for SDLP as unionists will vote for Eastwood. Personally zI think Eastwood is poor.  Every election, he's in there, always about him and his profile.  Another mess by the SDLP in regards their 'leader' in Westminister - they can't make their mind up can they/can they not have their leader in London.  They change their mind - speaking about that what's the bet Stevie renages on his statement of standing Ulster unionists in every area?

I'd love to get Dodds get the boot in Nth. Belfast so all effort should go into that.

The problem is, as usual, there doesn't seem to be agreement in the Remain parties - SF/SDLP/Alliance and Greens etc. and it would be a serious balls up if the DUP, as Brexiteers, take the majority of the seats.  It would send out a bad statement.

That would make sense but it means remain parties setting aside their own narrow ambitions for the greater good and I'm not sure whether that will happen although they have fought a fairly united battle on Brexit related issues so we can hope.

Can't see too many unionists voting for Eastwood since he will take his seat in Westminster and might have some influence as a remainer however minor that is. Think it will be tight between SF and SDLP in Derry & Strabane. Finucane has to find 2,000 votes on Dodds and you would have to think that this will only be possible if SDLP step aside. An agreement for SF to step aside in South Belfast to allow Hanna get in and for SDLP to do likewise in north Belfast to give Finucane a chance would make sense.   

You're right - seems there's too many egos on the Remain side to sort out a pact.

Unlike the unionists!!! From now on, every election will be for the DUP.  It'll be a DUP headcount and we can see that now with the pressure being put on their new leader.  UU could be wiped out this time.

Re: Derry. I think Unionists will vote tactically to keep Mc A out. Simple as that.  They know their votes matters in a tight count.

We all know this is the simole solution for the pro EU parties regarding NB, SB and EB but it'll be interesting to see over next few days.

It all depends on how many votes Anne McCloskey takes from SF and SDLP. Far bigger factor than the dubious "unionists voting for SDLP" factor. I have worked with a lot of unionists from Waterside and not one considered voting SDLP.

Well, they're not going to tell you I'd say.  It's all about tactics now - they'll want Mc Callion out and as not chance of DUP/UUP winning, it's their only option.

Same as WB a few years ago - Shankhill votes got Joe Hendron elected.