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GAA Discussion / Re: NFL Division 1 2023
« on: February 08, 2023, 10:10:09 PM »You would really need probabilities for the provincial finals. The probability of galway, Mayo and ros on the same side of the Connacht draw was 6/20 in the last 20 years.Many thanks. Interesting to see how it's possible at least.Agreed, I wouldn't bank on any impact in April but hopefully in the new fangled round robin system (I'm assuming that Galway should be there even if relegated from Div one and missing a Connacht final, is there any possible scenario where we miss out?) we'll see Comer back playing well.QuoteGalway and Annaghdown forward Damien Comer has received some good news from the results of a scan on the leg he injured in a collision with two Roscommon players last Sunday in Pearse Stadium. The injury happened in the early stages of a National League game in Pearse Stadium, which Galway ultimately lost by 0-9 to 0-8. The game was held up for almost 6 minutes as Comer was stretchered off, but it now appears there was no damage to the cruciate ligaments, but severe bone swelling will require a recovery period of 6 to 8 weeks, almost certainly ruling him out of the remainder of the league. With no surgery required, the Galway football management will be confident of having their All-Star forward back for their opening championship game on April 23rd against Mayo or Roscommon in a Connacht semi-final.
A huge relief its not his cruciate but Comer does take a while to get back to his best after returning from injury. Galway are due to play the winners of Mayo & Roscommon 11 weeks from him getting injured, wouldn't be too optimistic about him having much of an impact.
If provincial finals panned out like this, last team in Div 1 would not make it.
1st 9 spots
Westmeath - qualified.
Mayo v Sligo
Kerry v Limerick
Kildare v Meath
Derry v Cavan
Div 1 - current standings
Roscommon 10
Armagh 11
Kerry - ranked from provincial
Tyrone 12
Mayo - ranked from provincial
Donegal 13
Dublin promoted 14
Cork promoted 15
Galway 16
Monaghan 17 - Talteann Cup
If that scenario there played out but Galway finished last in Division One and, hypothetically speaking, had managed to win the AI final last July, would we be in a situation where the defending AI champs wouldn't be able to participate in the AI series but the winners of the Tailteann Cup would be?
The probability of Dublin not playing in the Leinster final was 4/20 in the last 20 years.
So 6/20*4/20 = 24/400 = 6%
Multiply by the Munster and Ulster probabilities to get less than 1%. So once in a century.