French Terrorist Attacks

[NAG1]

All very true Keyser.
I know its a terrible thing that happened to the people in Paris but the blame lies with their Government who took the decision to get involved in this conflict. Do Britain, America etc think they can go into the middle east and do what they are doing without some sort of repercussions. The fact that FB has given stupid people a place to voice their opinions on matters that they have no understanding of fuels the fire that western governments need to keep on doing what they are doing. You will find that the British government will push through this new law allowing them to force ISP's to store everybody's browsing history from the internet for their spooks to search on the back of this attack, we are under the impression that we live in a free society but that is far from the truth.
The IRA were either lucky or seen what was coming down the pipeline when they issued a cease fire because with the technical advances since the ceasefire it would make it impossible for them to continue with what they were doing. Britain has a very strong foothold in the world and both militarily and financially but one of these days the chickens will come home to roost.

That my thoughts anyway.

So lads if this is simply a case of the Arab world getting back at the West for all the undoubted ills that have been carried out over the years, why are they doing it in the name of Islam? Why are they harking back to the Koran and following it and trying to establish a Caliphate that takes their societies back to the dark ages?

These two things to me are at logger heads, just wondering if any of you had an opinion, which didnt start with the simplistic explanation of the West are bad and deserve this?

[easytiger95]

A couple of thoughts

IS' expansion into international terrorism is partly driven by the changing military situation on the ground - they are being degraded and corralled by the bombing operations, and let's face it, a force of 25,000 was never going to be able to hold the territory that they took over. Now the western powers are engaged fully against them their long term future will be one of the following options

1. Western boots go in and IS morph from a regime to a hit and run resistance, circa Al Qaeda in Iraq 2004/2005. This is a win for them, they want the West on the ground.

2. Bombing campaign continues, pockets hold out on the ground, but their capacity to rule is no more. They go abroad, and become to Europe what Boko Haram is to Nigeria.

A caliphate is not possible, and we are simply engaging in their asymmetrical tactics by ascribing them that status.

As for all the people who travelled to Syria, it is worth noting that for Muslims of a younger age, Syria four years ago was their Spanish Civil war - Assad was brutally oppressing a pro-freedom movement and the choices seemed a lot clearer. So not everyone who travelled had intention of radicalizing, not all of them were co-opted by IS or Al Qaeda, and there is a lot more nuance to it. Though obviously anyone who travels to IS held lands in the last 2 years, would have to know, or think they know, the repercussions of their actions.

[Hereiam]

NAG
I think this is the real start of the Energy war. The west has kept this place in turmoil for the last 40 yrs to help control the supply of oil and the people in this region have woken up to what is going on. Its the same in Africa, Nigeria is a real hot bed at the minute as well and its only a matter of time.

[NAG1]

NAG
I think this is the real start of the Energy war. The west has kept this place in turmoil for the last 40 yrs to help control the supply of oil and the people in this region have woken up to what is going on. Its the same in Africa, Nigeria is a real hot bed at the minute as well and its only a matter of time.

H

See to me that would make more sense if they were not trying to bring in this tyrannical system of law and order along with it, because even the most naive of commentators would agree that this type of governance is not sustainable long term.

Or do you think they are using the context of the Koran as a smoke to screen to gain control of the oil to then in turn become richer than the Western nations that they are attempting to drag into an apocalyptic war?

[Franko]

NAG
I think this is the real start of the Energy war. The west has kept this place in turmoil for the last 40 yrs to help control the supply of oil and the people in this region have woken up to what is going on. Its the same in Africa, Nigeria is a real hot bed at the minute as well and its only a matter of time.

So do you think this has nothing to do with radical Islam?  They just want the oil?

[Keyser soze]

NAG
I think this is the real start of the Energy war. The west has kept this place in turmoil for the last 40 yrs to help control the supply of oil and the people in this region have woken up to what is going on. Its the same in Africa, Nigeria is a real hot bed at the minute as well and its only a matter of time.

So do you think this has nothing to do with radical Islam?  They just want the oil?

Well for the West it sure as fook is!!

[Franko]

NAG
I think this is the real start of the Energy war. The west has kept this place in turmoil for the last 40 yrs to help control the supply of oil and the people in this region have woken up to what is going on. Its the same in Africa, Nigeria is a real hot bed at the minute as well and its only a matter of time.

So do you think this has nothing to do with radical Islam?  They just want the oil?

Well for the West it sure as fook is!!

Very good, nobody's debating that.  What about ISIS?

[Hereiam]

Franko
Do you really think ISIS are going to convert the likes of T Fernon to Islam. How do you think they are gona go about this

[NAG1]

Franko
Do you really think ISIS are going to convert the likes of T Fernon to Islam. How do you think they are gona go about this

Going by the version of the Koran that they are following as long as the 'Christians' are defeated and admit defeat, we will be allowed to pay a 'Tax' of sorts to the Caliph and will be left alone largely, or at least that is what they have been told by their scipture.

I just dont see oil fitting into their over all plan, so energy war is out for me.

[seafoid]

NAG
I think this is the real start of the Energy war. The west has kept this place in turmoil for the last 40 yrs to help control the supply of oil and the people in this region have woken up to what is going on. Its the same in Africa, Nigeria is a real hot bed at the minute as well and its only a matter of time.

the oil price is relatively low. There is a big glut on the market. Saudi is keeping it that way.
Not sure that ISIS would generate any significant leverage over oil.

[Walter Cronc]

I've never understood why IS/Al Qaeda etc have never attacked westerners in Dubai/Abu Dhabi/Doha!

Are these states keeping the lads sweet with cash for the cause as such??

[Franko]

Franko
Do you really think ISIS are going to convert the likes of T Fernon to Islam. How do you think they are gona go about this

Going by the version of the Koran that they are following as long as the 'Christians' are defeated and admit defeat, we will be allowed to pay a 'Tax' of sorts to the Caliph and will be left alone largely, or at least that is what they have been told by their scipture.

I just dont see oil fitting into their over all plan, so energy war is out for me.

What he said.  And as I said earlier, they only want the oil as a means to an end.  That end is the apocalypse.  You can't negotiate with someone like that, and no amount of infrastructure projects will solve that problem.

I appreciate that 'the West' is to blame for a lot of this.  But that sort of rhetoric is not much good when some suicide bomber walks into a local town and blows a couple of hundred people to shit in the name of Allah.  Does anyone have anything to say beyond that?  Is they key to solving the problem putting the squeeze on the Saudis?  FWIW, I think these air strikes are more propaganda than anything else, and, while it might sound appealing, the solution is going to have to be a little more nuanced that simply bombing these guys back to the dark ages.

[Franko]

There will be no elimination of anything. There never is. Eventually the doves on both sides will have to talk, it might take 20 years of bombing and killing but that's what will happen. Anyone who thinks they can fight a war to victory is not learning from history in this type of conflict.

I agree about not learning from history but this scenario is unprecedented.

There are no doves in ISIS itchy with respect. That's the crux of the problem. There will be no negotiation with anybody of any stature in ISIS. They wont want to talk anyway and anyone captured alive will be tried for mass murder/'war crimes'

I used the word unprecedented and no doubt somebody will have a precedent but this movement is driven by an interpretation of a religion. It is not about resources, imperialism etc. It is driven by religious dogma.

if this is nurtured and allowed to continue for 20 years, expect a lot of bombing in cities near us. History has also taught us that you cant allow a cult (like the Nazis were) to fester and get momentum.

It's a byproduct of Sunni grievances as well.
These have to be addressed.

In the north the Brits eventually understood that it was required to spend lots of money on infrastructure and social stuff to defang the paramilitaries. Same in Syria/Iraq.

This is on a completely different level.  The indoctrination of these people has happened.  These beliefs are now ingrained and a few roads and hospitals will not remove them.  Even during the worst of the troubles there was still some semblance of social order in the north.  In Syria the lunatics have taken over the asylum.

It is Franko but if you whack the IS mole another will pop up because of the grievances.

What are these grievances?

Anything seafoid?

[screenexile]

Franko
Do you really think ISIS are going to convert the likes of T Fernon to Islam. How do you think they are gona go about this

They stand up for what they believe in, have a totally corrupt hierarchy and they definitely don't like the gays so there's a fair chance Tony has already defected!

[Minder]

If it's all about oil and the West why have they been persecuting the Yazidi people for example ?