China Coronavirus

[thewobbler]

MR2 I'd be thinking that, apart from controlling the initial surge and not overwhelming the health service, then all of the above would have been pointless had we simply reopened the corridors to England/France/Spain/Portugal over the summer. We'd still be where we are now.

[five points]

So could we have had the smart lock down?

Shut airports/ports down for 3 weeks
Lockdown business work for 3 weeks
Essential travel only, 4 mile only
Close schools 3 weeks
Wearing of masks mandatory in public spaces

Apart from the masks bit, we tried pretty much all of that in April and May and it pretty much failed.

If you're talking about locking down essential businesses, really bad things like food shortages start to happen even within 3 weeks. Also for example what happens farms and cows if there's no dairy open to take and process their milk?

[Milltown Row2]

MR2 I'd be thinking that, apart from controlling the initial surge and not overwhelming the health service, then all of the above would have been pointless had we simply reopened the corridors to England/France/Spain/Portugal over the summer. We'd still be where we are now.

Getting frustrating at the lack of  a joined up approach that would suit this little corner of Western Europe, we could have been done with this or at the very worst suffered a month of lockdown

[Milltown Row2]

So could we have had the smart lock down?

Shut airports/ports down for 3 weeks
Lockdown business work for 3 weeks
Essential travel only, 4 mile only
Close schools 3 weeks
Wearing of masks mandatory in public spaces

Apart from the masks bit, we pretty tried all that in April and May and it pretty much failed.

If you're talking about locking down essential businesses, really bad things like food shortages start to happen even within 3 weeks. Also for example what happens farms and cows if there's no dairy open to take and process their milk?

Airports were open and we had travel between Belfast and London, when London was the worst place in Europe.. Essential business i didn't put on for obvious reasons.

Ports were also open

I thought the numbers were very low in during May, the numbers had fallen and the nightgale hospitals hadn't even been used.

We only needed to close off the island for a period of time to bring the numbers down, and contain it.

If there is a dangerous second wave with a worse strain that before, will they do that?

[sid waddell]

Lockdowns are designed to bring down the number of infections where they are beginning to spread out of control

Lockdowns work, the evidence is overwhelming, there is no place where they have not worked, Victoria is the latest example

But lockdowns are not a long term solution

It seems obvious to me that the real problem is the lack of functioning test, trace and isolate systems

That was supposed to be the solution, but it hasn't happened in most places - which given the systematic running down of government capacity all over the western world and the obsession with inefficient, wasteful outsourcing to the private sector, is hardly a surprise

[Rossfan]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/


8,800 cases per million
560 deaths per million.
26 Co figures :-
C.6,000
C.350

[Cunny Funt]

The Swedish deaths in the springtime were inflated by mistakes they made in putting infected patients into nursing homes. As ours were.

Regardless of mistakes (no country hasn't made them) Their death toll is higher than reported as in March, April many died in Sweden without ever getting tested. ROI continues to report possible, probably deaths, one of the few countries who report in that manner.

[GetOverTheBar]

Was reading that the Chinese rolled out 11 million tests in one burst in Wuhan and as a result managed to get the whole thing back to relative normality.

I keep yapping they have no interest in spending that type of money here (or effort)....but Christ wouldn't it help?

Immediate mass testing, you are fine....work away. If you have covid or whatever the tests pick up....look, sorry your going to have to isolate here for 2 weeks.

Is this really beyond our capabilities? Am I being too simplistic?

[lfdown2]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/


8,800 cases per million
560 deaths per million.
26 Co figures :-
C.6,000
C.350

It's not a simple as that, you can never compare apples with apples. For example (statistica.com - no idea how accurate it is) Sweden has a median age of 41.3yo with ROI having a median age of 37.1yo, assume that is relevant in a disease that is more deadly to the elder population.

What is clear however is that if we continue to enact some form of lockdown, businesses will fail, unemployment will rise, revenue generated from taxation will fall and public services will suffer.

How many will then fall below the breadline or die as a result of increased waiting times. I do not have any answers but I understand why they are trying to keep businesses open while limiting visits to other homes.

In the meantime I will keep social distance, maintain good hygiene, wear a mask where required and support local businesses (hospitality included).

Unfortunately, whether we like it or not scenes in Tyrone and south Belfast will be used as reasons why we can't have nice things!

[Ed Ricketts]

Was reading that the Chinese rolled out 11 million tests in one burst in Wuhan and as a result managed to get the whole thing back to relative normality.

I keep yapping they have no interest in spending that type of money here (or effort)....but Christ wouldn't it help?

Immediate mass testing, you are fine....work away. If you have covid or whatever the tests pick up....look, sorry your going to have to isolate here for 2 weeks.

Is this really beyond our capabilities? Am I being too simplistic?

It's not about the money. There's nowhere near the lab capacity in Ireland for the amount of testing. The equipment, the trained personnel, the whole infrastructure to organise something of that magnitude.

The capacity in the south is 100,000 tests a week apparently, and about 45,000 in the north. With 6.8 million on the island it would take 10 months to test everyone. Over a year in reality with the necessary re-tests.

Fantasy stuff at this stage.

[Cunny Funt]

Was reading that the Chinese rolled out 11 million tests in one burst in Wuhan and as a result managed to get the whole thing back to relative normality.

I keep yapping they have no interest in spending that type of money here (or effort)....but Christ wouldn't it help?

Immediate mass testing, you are fine....work away. If you have covid or whatever the tests pick up....look, sorry your going to have to isolate here for 2 weeks.

Is this really beyond our capabilities? Am I being too simplistic?

It's not about the money. There's nowhere near the lab capacity in Ireland for the amount of testing. The equipment, the trained personnel, the whole infrastructure to organise something of that magnitude.

The capacity in the south is 100,000 tests a week apparently, and about 45,000 in the north. With 6.8 million on the island it would take 10 months to test everyone. Over a year in reality with the necessary re-tests.

Fantasy stuff at this stage.

Getting closer to that capacity with 90,454 tests done in the last 7 days.

[armaghniac]

Was reading that the Chinese rolled out 11 million tests in one burst in Wuhan and as a result managed to get the whole thing back to relative normality.

I keep yapping they have no interest in spending that type of money here (or effort)....but Christ wouldn't it help?

Immediate mass testing, you are fine....work away. If you have covid or whatever the tests pick up....look, sorry your going to have to isolate here for 2 weeks.

Is this really beyond our capabilities? Am I being too simplistic?

The Chinese probably used capacity throughout China to achieve this.
This would help, but it may have to await some new testing technique to implement it. If you had a new testing gadget and could put one in every employer and every school and university, then this could be brought under control and this rather than a vaccine might turn out to be the solution.

Maybe something like this https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/09/18/mit-harvard-broad-institute-crispr-coronavirus-test

[JohnDenver]

The theory of testing everybody and trying to identify any instances of the virus here is all well and good. But the problem is those travelling through airports and potentially bringing it in again from other countries.

[Milltown Row2]

Boris says another 6 months! f**k me!

[johnnycool]

Boris says another 6 months! f**k me!

A stitch in time does indeed save 9 (or 50K deaths) but that time was early march you fuckín moron.

Has he any redeeming qualities?