Minister says Budget will be defeated

[Peter Solan the Great]

http://www.eveningecho.ie/news/ireland/minister-says-budget-will-be-defeated-480607.html

"Senior Government Ministers were told privately yesterday to expect a vote defeat on the Budget.

One Minister, who asked not be named, said there would be a General Election a very short time after Christmas.

The Minister's view was that dissident Fianna Fáil TDs and Independents interested in being re-elected would vote against the Budget.

The Government disclosure yesterday of even further billions being sought in the early December Budget has been the 'final straw' for some dissident TDs and Independents.

The Minister also predicted that Brian Cowen would be gone by late February, with Brian Lenihan the public and bookies' favourite to get the job.

Independents like Jackie Healy Rae, whose son will be a candidate in the next election, simply cannot afford to back a budget that hits the less well off.

Michael Lowry is another who is predicted to vote 'No'."

[Mayo4Sam]

I wouldnt be surprised, the day of the drunk interview we were told it could be more than €3bn but no more than €4bn. If these back benchers are being lied to like we are then you can't blame them.

[muppet]

I wouldnt be surprised, the day of the drunk interview we were told it could be more than €3bn but no more than €4bn. If these back benchers are being lied to like we are then you can't blame them.

That was on the 14th September and it has nearly doubled since. Why would anyone believe them?

[Rossfan]

If they had any respect for themselves, the Country or the Irish people they would call a General Election NOW rather than have it forced on them in December by their own rats in the back benches.

[Lone Shark]

If they had any respect for themselves, the Country or the Irish people they would call a General Election NOW rather than have it forced on them in December by their own rats in the back benches.

That's exactly what they are doing. By scarpering now, they then get to turn around and force the opposition to bring in a budget which will be just as draconian, which they can then oppose. However they can't just stand down - they have to be seen to be trying to bring a budget through, but then when the backbenchers say that they won't stand for it, they can then go to the people and try to salvage 40-50 seats and oppose every remedial measure the new government has to take. Finally in 2016 they get brought back in on a tide of republican rhetoric by an amnesia-ridden eloctorate.

This is not a betrayal or anything, this is the plan - be under no doubt about that. The fact that the country will be paralysed at the worst possible time doesn't bother them, since the greater good of the Irish people comes a distant second to the greater good of the Soldiers of Destiny.

[magpie seanie]

I think you are 100% correct Lone Shark and the Irish electorate are stupid enough to let it happen.

Our so-called democracy is a complete sham.

[muppet]

If they had any respect for themselves, the Country or the Irish people they would call a General Election NOW rather than have it forced on them in December by their own rats in the back benches.

That's exactly what they are doing. By scarpering now, they then get to turn around and force the opposition to bring in a budget which will be just as draconian, which they can then oppose. However they can't just stand down - they have to be seen to be trying to bring a budget through, but then when the backbenchers say that they won't stand for it, they can then go to the people and try to salvage 40-50 seats and oppose every remedial measure the new government has to take. Finally in 2016 they get brought back in on a tide of republican rhetoric by an amnesia-ridden eloctorate.

This is not a betrayal or anything, this is the plan - be under no doubt about that. The fact that the country will be paralysed at the worst possible time doesn't bother them, since the greater good of the Irish people comes a distant second to the greater good of the Soldiers of Destiny.

The problem though is that a new Government might hold an enquiry into what happened and actually tell us. There might be no recovery from that for some of today's important people.

[Smokin Joe]

If they had any respect for themselves, the Country or the Irish people they would call a General Election NOW rather than have it forced on them in December by their own rats in the back benches.

That's exactly what they are doing. By scarpering now, they then get to turn around and force the opposition to bring in a budget which will be just as draconian, which they can then oppose. However they can't just stand down - they have to be seen to be trying to bring a budget through, but then when the backbenchers say that they won't stand for it, they can then go to the people and try to salvage 40-50 seats and oppose every remedial measure the new government has to take. Finally in 2016 they get brought back in on a tide of republican rhetoric by an amnesia-ridden eloctorate.

This is not a betrayal or anything, this is the plan - be under no doubt about that. The fact that the country will be paralysed at the worst possible time doesn't bother them, since the greater good of the Irish people comes a distant second to the greater good of the Soldiers of Destiny.

So LS, are you saying that FF are "wanting" to be kicked out of office so that it won't be them that actually has to enforce the draconian measures?

Not sure I believe that as it would be very easy for them now to say "Alright, we'll do the right thing by the country and hold those other 3 by elections now" as opposed to going through the ignomy of having their own budget defeated.

[Lone Shark]

The problem though is that a new Government might hold an enquiry into what happened and actually tell us. There might be no recovery from that for some of today's important people.

You'd have five years to put together an enquiry, conduct it, deal with countless legal challenges, try to keep it within terms of reference, produce a report and make it stick - way too little time with the way we do things in this country.

And of course all of this would be going on while FF play the card of "The people of Ireland are struggling, they need their government to work for them, not to be playing petty politics and the blame game. Tribunal legal fees alone would keep open the Haughey Ward of the local hospital....."

So LS, are you saying that FF are "wanting" to be kicked out of office so that it won't be them that actually has to enforce the draconian measures?

Not sure I believe that as it would be very easy for them now to say "Alright, we'll do the right thing by the country and hold those other 3 by elections now" as opposed to going through the ignomy of having their own budget defeated.

But you see the thing is that if they schedule the by-elections, those three new TDs won't be in situ in time for the budget. Plus there is also the danger, and anyone is being hugely naive if they don't admit this, that they win the Donegal South one. There's a huge core FF vote up there and if we've learned nothing else, voting FF is like a dirty little secret right now. Very few will admit to doing it in public or to a pollster since they know that deep down it's indefensible, but put them in the anonymous environment of a voting booth, with all the justifications running around their head like "sure the others are no good either - who'd want to have a pint with Enda?" and next thing the number one has been put alongside the Destiny Soldier.

If Pearse Doherty is the main rival, he won't get transfers too easily either, while I'd presume that a lot of his core vote would be eat into by Frank McBrearty who would be going after the same angry block of voters. Winning a by-election, any by-election, would change the political dynamic completely - particularly if it came close to the budget going through. They'd get a bounce to see them through to the Spring, which is when the IMF/EU come in, the country is ravaged, and modern FF finally go down in Irish history alongside Oliver Cromwell and the Black and Tans. That's the long term view, and there's no way that Brian Cowen and his cronies don't see it.

[mylestheslasher]

Jackie Healy Rae is a gombeen of the highest order. He has made demands for his constituency in return for his support of the budget. Nothing to do witht he merits of the budget.

FG and LB have (along with FF/Gn and our never questioning media) already accepted accepted the 4 year plan and 15bn figure and will continue along those lines. Any incomning Government just need to redo what the Current Government are doing and as long as it's within the 4 years and 15bn the public will accept it and a must do. 4 years and 15 bn have never been questioned. This is the basis for the budget that is widely accepted. The problemn at the minute is that FF/GN have no mandate to put forward the plan and could not carry it through. 

This budget has little to do with individual party's and more to do with Irelands weak ruling class. FF/GN and FG/LB have not asked any hard questions of eachother or of the EU. They have not held anyone to account and they won't hold anyone to account. The 4 year and 15bn plan will happen. OUr politicans are doing the work of the IMF in order to keep themselves as our politicians.

Sinn Fein are the only party i've heard questioning this but I've heard plenty of economists questioning it - many of them the same guys that predicted that we were heading for this mess 3 years ago.

[seafoid]

I wouldn't be surprised to see FG support the budget via some sort of pairing arrangement in return for the immediate dissolution of the Dail and the calling of a general election.  I'm sure Olli Rehn spelt it out to everyone during his visit.  A budget defeat is in nobody's interest. The cuts have to happen or it is lights  out.  Whether anyone likes it or not,  Ireland is dependent on the financial markets to pay day to day expenses and this is simply not sustainable. It's reminds me of Leeds United under Dave O'Leary.   

FF's goose is cooked whatever happens.  They have been in power for the last 13 years and it is their fault.  McDowell and the rest of the PDs are also responsible. There will be no FF resurrection. The damage they have inflicted on the people via their neoliberal  ideology will not be forgiven.

I know an ex FF county councillor who has canvassed for the party for the last 50 years and who stood by Charlie and Bertie through everything. He says he will never vote FF again.  the party is in real trouble if that sort of attitude amongst core supporters is replicated.     

Patricia McKenna was right. it was madness of the Greens to join FF.

I like Muppet's idea of an inquiry. Who knows where all the bodies are buried ?   

[Billys Boots]

I think you are 100% correct Lone Shark and the Irish electorate are stupid enough to let it happen.

And that's the most depressing part of it all. 

[seafoid]

I don't know Zap. The full scale of the horror hasn't really hit home yet. €6bn is being bandied about on RTE and elsewhere but it is meaningless to the average pint drinker.  Total cuts €19bn over 5 years.

There was a march in Galway a few weeks ago over a €100 million budget issue in the HSE.
Imagine what €19bn will mean.

The country is in a crisis that goes way beyond whatever happened in the 80s. This is existential stuff. The end of an era. I don't believe  FF will get out of it intact. There has been no accountability to date. All to come.  The country's business elite has more or less been wiped out. The cream of 2 generations exposed as gobshites. Massive implications and FF is in the middle of it.

The closest recent parallel I can think of is the collapse of the Christian democrats in Italy in the early 90s.

[Hound]

Donegal will prove this with FF fighting for the seat on first preference votes. Transfers will be a problem for them but FF#1 will still come out.

Honestely, could Kenny and Gilmore have found two worst candidates?

So if someone would like to vote for a politician with even a semblance of intelligence (IMO), they can only vote for the FF guy or the SF guy. What a choice!

[Hound]

Donegal will prove this with FF fighting for the seat on first preference votes. Transfers will be a problem for them but FF#1 will still come out.

Honestely, could Kenny and Gilmore have found two worst candidates?

So if someone would like to vote for a politician with even a semblance of intelligence (IMO), they can only vote for the FF guy or the SF guy. What a choice!

I haven't seen or heard the other but I did hear they were poor.

The FG bloke just seems a bit out of his depth, McBrearty is an ignorant gombeen.

Quite a funny bit here about 16 mins 45 secs in to the video, where Doherty has to educate McBrearty!
(its the Monday 9th November edition of Vincent Browne tonight)

http://www.tv3.ie/videos.php?video=29079&locID=1.65.169&date=2010-11-09&date_mode=&page=1&show_cal=&newspanel=&showspanel=&web_only=&full_episodes=