UK General Election 2017

[imtommygunn]

I would love it if you were right but sadly i don't think you will be

[anportmorforjfc]

The polls were wrong for Cameron's majority in 2015, for Brexit and for Trump. I have a cheeky fiver on Jeremy next PM 7/1.

The first bearded PM in over a century.

He's 9/2 at the minute!

[Hardy]

My cheeky few bob is on a hung parliament at 6/1.

[OgraAnDun]

My cheeky few bob is on a hung parliament at 6/1.

Much smarter option.


EDIT: Down to 4/1 on PP now.

[seafoid]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-three-scenarios-for-the-u-k-election/

We don't have a model of this election — but in our view, there's no way around the fact that uncertainty is high and that nobody should be surprised about the outcome unless perhaps Labour wins an outright majority of seats. U.K. polls have not historically been very accurate. And pundit attempts to outguess the polls have often been even worse. (In 2016, pundits and betting markets were notoriously confident that Britain would vote to remain within the European Union even when polls showed a nearly even race.) However, if one takes the polling average but assumes that the error is as high as it has been historically, then it turns out that each of these three outcomes are roughly as likely as one another:

Scenario No. 1: Narrow-ish Conservative majority
In this case, the polling average is fairly accurate (although some individual polls will unavoidably be off). May wins by 5 to 9 percentage points, close to the 6.5-point margin that Conservatives won by in 2015. At the higher end of this range, Conservatives might gain one or two dozen seats in Parliament from the 330 they had (there are 650 seats in total). At the narrower end, they might just barely hang onto their majority.
Either outcome would be disappointing relative to when May called the election in April — when Conservatives were ahead by about 17 points on average and possibly headed for a 400-seat majority — and wouldn't speak highly of her political skills. But it would also be something of a relief given how much polls have tightened since then and still possibly give them their largest majority since 1987.

Scenario No. 2: Conservative landslide
Since Conservatives lead by 6 to 7 percentage points on average, and since U.K. polls have missed by an average of about 4 points in the past, it's not at all hard to imagine them winning the popular vote by double digits. Indeed, Conservatives have often outperformed their polls in recent U.K. elections, such as in 2015 when polls implied a hung parliament and they instead won a majority. On Saturday, we made a long argument as to why this doesn't necessarily imply that they will beat their polls again. The gist of it is that pollsters are seeking to correct for their past errors — in some cases, by applying turnout models that shift the polls by several percentage points in Tories' favor — so it may be a mistake to apply a mental adjustment on top of the one that pollsters are already making.
But a Conservative overperformance is certainly possible if Labour's youth turnout doesn't materialize, if undecided voters worry about the unpopular Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn running the government, or if the terror attack pushes voters to May. Such an outcome might yield somewhere in the neighborhood of 375 seats in Parliament for Conservatives — perhaps more if Labour holds ground in the cities but collapses in working-class areas, as happened to Democrats in the 2016 U.S. election.

Scenario No. 3: Conservatives lose their majority
To be precise, I mean that Conservatives win fewer than 326 seats; we're making no predictions about whether they'd then find a coalition partner to form their next government or if there would be some sort of Corbyn-led government instead. Betting markets as of Wednesday night imply there's only about a 15 percent chance of Conservatives failing to win an outright majority.

[mrdeeds]

Corbyn has ran a great campaign in fairness regardless of result.  May is an absolutely terrible leader and no way could she be trusted to negotiate Brexit.

[seafoid]

I was just looking at oddschecker.  Tories are 1/12 for a majority . May is 4/1 to continue as PM. That suggests she won't be leading the Brexit suicide. 

[Avondhu star]

I think the Tories will win easier than expected, a lot of people do not want to admit that they are Tory voters until it comes to casting their vote. The options are fairly stark also with so few parties and the fact that Labour are further left than normal and the Tories even further right than normal. The liberal democarts are not a viable alternative and tactical voters will discount them on the basis that they can't win in many constituencies in a FPTP system.

Either way though I think the narrative to be taken from this election is that May is a lame duck prime minister who has no conviction, cannot be trusted and has displayed an alarming inability to think on her feet when working off script. Although she will likely increase the governments majority, her own position is dubious in the mid-longer term. I think Corbyn will do enough to survive and if Brexit negotiations do not go as hoped, he could be in a better position to capitalise next time around. Certainly his own personal popularity has benefitted as he has taken all the mud that the media has slung at him and retained his dignity by not wavering.

You not think Corbyn's age is an issue? just checked and he's 68; Thought he was younger than that.

Do we need old man Corbyn with his finger on the button? 😀

Trump's 70 and May looks as if she's 70!!!

And as for Macron's missus...

The older the fiddle the sweeter the tune

[Capt Pat]

Disaster for May and the Tories, as they lose their majority according to the exit poll.

[mrdeeds]

May is goosed. Delighted for her weakness.

[LeoMc]

And not even the DUP can put them over the top.

[dec]

Exit polls have underestimated the Tories in the past.

[mrdeeds]

Exit polls have underestimated the Tories in the past.

Even if they have a majority May's position is unattainable.

[seafoid]

The Tories put the "n" back in cuts, as Sandi Toksvig noted.
May is even worse at her job than McGeeney.

David Dimbleby is reading out the results.
Conservatives: 314
Labour: 266
SNP: 34
Lib Dems: 14
Plaid Cymru: 3
Greens: 1
Ukip: 0

[OgraAnDun]

If the exit polls are right, could be another election within the next month or so. Can't see any coalition being able to be brought together with those results.