A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

Started by winghalfback, May 27, 2015, 03:16:23 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

Rossfan

Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

Farrandeelin

Quote from: Rossfan on October 17, 2021, 07:10:24 PM
Has to be like "the rest of the UK" ;)

Sin é. In the eyes of wee Sammy and smug Jeffrey that trumps everything.
Inaugural Football Championship Prediction Winner.

Rossfan

Once it's not Abortion laws or bilingual Road signs of course!
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

Armagh18

Only our rivers run free up to number 1 on itunes charts apparently. Things you love to see.

seafoid

Quote from: armaghniac on October 17, 2021, 02:00:07 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 17, 2021, 04:28:54 AM
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/reunification-of-ireland-is-close-says-top-economist-posen-40920667.html

The reunification of Ireland will take place "within five to 10 years" because the conflict between politics and the economy under the NI Protocol is not sustainable, an economist has said.

Dr Adam S Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said he believed there was "no good option" for the future of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

Posen's point is that for NI to have the "best of both worlds" under the NI Protocol required "political maturity" and it won't get it. So the Protocol setup could lead to benefits for NI but London and the Unionists will sabotage this.
In its first year, that seems a reasonable characterisation of events so far.
10 years is too early imo.
But things fall apart sooner than things are  ready
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU


tbrick18

I think we need to learn the lessons of Brexit.....don't vote for something without understanding the implications of what is being voted for.
A lot of work needs to be done on all sides of the debate to get a true picture of what a UI would look like in terms of economics, education and health.
The problem we have as that current political unionism refuse to even explore what a UI would look like and what it would mean for the unionist tradition. I think a lot of reasoning behind that is disingenuous - the whole "part of the UK" stance is a way to keep themselves in power.
I think when it comes to it, the majority of people will vote based on economics and health. Will they be better off financially and will they get better health care in a UI.
I think before a vote can take place all of those issues need to be addresses with an agreement in principal around what would happen and on what timescale should a UI vote win through.
There will still be people who vote for and against regardless of the detail, but I believe the vote will be won or lost on the "sensible" voters who base their vote on practical information.

HiMucker

Quote from: tbrick18 on October 22, 2021, 11:34:44 AM
I think we need to learn the lessons of Brexit.....don't vote for something without understanding the implications of what is being voted for.
A lot of work needs to be done on all sides of the debate to get a true picture of what a UI would look like in terms of economics, education and health.
The problem we have as that current political unionism refuse to even explore what a UI would look like and what it would mean for the unionist tradition. I think a lot of reasoning behind that is disingenuous - the whole "part of the UK" stance is a way to keep themselves in power.
I think when it comes to it, the majority of people will vote based on economics and health. Will they be better off financially and will they get better health care in a UI.
I think before a vote can take place all of those issues need to be addresses with an agreement in principal around what would happen and on what timescale should a UI vote win through.
There will still be people who vote for and against regardless of the detail, but I believe the vote will be won or lost on the "sensible" voters who base their vote on practical information.
Just on that bit Tbrick, I understand what you mean. However I don't know if Unionists realise or maybe it is that they don't care, as everything other than keeping the union is secondary to them, but they would actually have even more power in a unified Ireland. They would have even more say in the north of the country and they would even have a say in the rest of the country, and probably even a greater influence on the European stage.

seafoid

Quote from: tbrick18 on October 22, 2021, 11:34:44 AM
I think we need to learn the lessons of Brexit.....don't vote for something without understanding the implications of what is being voted for.
A lot of work needs to be done on all sides of the debate to get a true picture of what a UI would look like in terms of economics, education and health.
The problem we have as that current political unionism refuse to even explore what a UI would look like and what it would mean for the unionist tradition. I think a lot of reasoning behind that is disingenuous - the whole "part of the UK" stance is a way to keep themselves in power.
I think when it comes to it, the majority of people will vote based on economics and health. Will they be better off financially and will they get better health care in a UI.
I think before a vote can take place all of those issues need to be addresses with an agreement in principal around what would happen and on what timescale should a UI vote win through.
There will still be people who vote for and against regardless of the detail, but I believe the vote will be won or lost on the "sensible" voters who base their vote on practical information.
The abortion vote was done very well. A citizens assembly of 100 was drawn together to go through all of the issues peacefully and thoroughly.
Once their work was done the conclusions were made available. The vote was calm . It could have gone arseways otherwise.

Something similar would need to be done for reunification plus the appropriate institutions would need to be built.
The Brits threw money at the troubles post 97. Reunification is going to need a lot of money.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

JPGJOHNNYG

Quote from: tbrick18 on October 22, 2021, 11:34:44 AM
I think we need to learn the lessons of Brexit.....don't vote for something without understanding the implications of what is being voted for.
A lot of work needs to be done on all sides of the debate to get a true picture of what a UI would look like in terms of economics, education and health.
The problem we have as that current political unionism refuse to even explore what a UI would look like and what it would mean for the unionist tradition. I think a lot of reasoning behind that is disingenuous - the whole "part of the UK" stance is a way to keep themselves in power.
I think when it comes to it, the majority of people will vote based on economics and health. Will they be better off financially and will they get better health care in a UI.
I think before a vote can take place all of those issues need to be addresses with an agreement in principal around what would happen and on what timescale should a UI vote win through.
There will still be people who vote for and against regardless of the detail, but I believe the vote will be won or lost on the "sensible" voters who base their vote on practical information.

Unfortunately most unionists wont. Its a flag and thats it. The NHS keeps getting mentioned as the reason to keep the union. The same NHS that is f@cked especially in northern ireland and again unfortunately plenty of suppossed nationalists swallow the shite.

seafoid

Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on October 22, 2021, 12:46:38 PM
Quote from: tbrick18 on October 22, 2021, 11:34:44 AM
I think we need to learn the lessons of Brexit.....don't vote for something without understanding the implications of what is being voted for.
A lot of work needs to be done on all sides of the debate to get a true picture of what a UI would look like in terms of economics, education and health.
The problem we have as that current political unionism refuse to even explore what a UI would look like and what it would mean for the unionist tradition. I think a lot of reasoning behind that is disingenuous - the whole "part of the UK" stance is a way to keep themselves in power.
I think when it comes to it, the majority of people will vote based on economics and health. Will they be better off financially and will they get better health care in a UI.
I think before a vote can take place all of those issues need to be addresses with an agreement in principal around what would happen and on what timescale should a UI vote win through.
There will still be people who vote for and against regardless of the detail, but I believe the vote will be won or lost on the "sensible" voters who base their vote on practical information.
I think addressing NI productivity could be the key to getting Unionists on board. The Union was a disaster for the NI economy once the heavy industry of shipbuilding etc went tits up.
Ulster should not be poor. If it had a similar model to Leinster and Munster things would be much better.

Unfortunately most unionists wont. Its a flag and thats it. The NHS keeps getting mentioned as the reason to keep the union. The same NHS that is f@cked especially in northern ireland and again unfortunately plenty of suppossed nationalists swallow the shite.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

mouview

Quote from: seafoid on October 22, 2021, 12:39:20 PM
Quote from: tbrick18 on October 22, 2021, 11:34:44 AM
I think we need to learn the lessons of Brexit.....don't vote for something without understanding the implications of what is being voted for.
A lot of work needs to be done on all sides of the debate to get a true picture of what a UI would look like in terms of economics, education and health.
The problem we have as that current political unionism refuse to even explore what a UI would look like and what it would mean for the unionist tradition. I think a lot of reasoning behind that is disingenuous - the whole "part of the UK" stance is a way to keep themselves in power.
I think when it comes to it, the majority of people will vote based on economics and health. Will they be better off financially and will they get better health care in a UI.
I think before a vote can take place all of those issues need to be addresses with an agreement in principal around what would happen and on what timescale should a UI vote win through.
There will still be people who vote for and against regardless of the detail, but I believe the vote will be won or lost on the "sensible" voters who base their vote on practical information.
The abortion vote was done very well. A citizens assembly of 100 was drawn together to go through all of the issues peacefully and thoroughly.
Once their work was done the conclusions were made available. The vote was calm . It could have gone arseways otherwise.

Something similar would need to be done for reunification plus the appropriate institutions would need to be built.
The Brits threw money at the troubles post 97. Reunification is going to need a lot of money.

There would be a lot available from the EU and USA for it though, a lot of well-disposed goodwill towards it.

armaghniac

Quote from: tbrick18 on October 22, 2021, 11:34:44 AM
I think when it comes to it, the majority of people will vote based on economics and health. Will they be better off financially and will they get better health care in a UI.

A lot of people in the 6 counties are more focussed on cheap healthcare than good healthcare.

Quote from: mouview on October 22, 2021, 01:29:55 PM
There would be a lot available from the EU and USA for it though, a lot of well-disposed goodwill towards it.

There would be some money available, but there is a limit to the extent to which taxpayers in Germany or New Jersey should be expected to fund NI. Success requires that the British make a reasonable settlement in regard to pensions etc and that the economy in NI grows to to be more like the 26 counties. It is in the interest of the British to do this, but as we have seen recently they are quite capable of acting irrationally and there is a risk of playing tough on NI to avoid encouraging Scotland.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

dec

Quote from: tbrick18 on October 22, 2021, 11:34:44 AM
I think when it comes to it, the majority of people will vote based on economics and health. Will they be better off financially and will they get better health care in a UI.

Economics will not cause Unionists to vote for a united Ireland. The 26 counties was an economic basket case for a long time and yet there was never any thought of trying to rejoin the UK.

If you think they would vote on economics try a little thought experiment. Imagine Brexit is a great success (yes I know, but humour me). The Tories manage to create an off shore tax haven booming economy and the North ends up more successful than the south. Do you think there would be any great push for the 26 to rejoin the UK?

BennyCake

Quote from: tbrick18 on October 22, 2021, 11:34:44 AM
I think we need to learn the lessons of Brexit.....don't vote for something without understanding the implications of what is being voted for.
A lot of work needs to be done on all sides of the debate to get a true picture of what a UI would look like in terms of economics, education and health.
The problem we have as that current political unionism refuse to even explore what a UI would look like and what it would mean for the unionist tradition. I think a lot of reasoning behind that is disingenuous - the whole "part of the UK" stance is a way to keep themselves in power.
I think when it comes to it, the majority of people will vote based on economics and health. Will they be better off financially and will they get better health care in a UI.
I think before a vote can take place all of those issues need to be addresses with an agreement in principal around what would happen and on what timescale should a UI vote win through.
There will still be people who vote for and against regardless of the detail, but I believe the vote will be won or lost on the "sensible" voters who base their vote on practical information.

Why would they? They're Unionists after all.

Many many unionists will vote to remain in the union, regardless Of how badly off they are. In the same way many nationalists will choose to vote for a UI regardless of how badly off they might be.

So you could talk and plan for it until the cows come home, but the vast majority of both sides have their minds already made up.

If you want a UI, have the vote. And if it wins, well you better be prepared for the backlash. It won't be pretty.