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Looks like Social Democrats and Labour are leery of being subsumed by Sinn Fein in opposition. Both would have ambitions to be the largest left party in 5 years. One of the two may go into government but if in opposition their challenge will be to stand out as strong opposition as their own distinct party, versus Sinn Fein's eagerness to keep them as two smaller parties in a SF led left coalition in 5 years. That will be interesting to watch too. They were coy enough with Mary Lou's overtures.

We always did the ham late on Christmas Eve, flavoured with cider, cloves and mustard. The Brandy butter was also made in advance (which would take its place with the plum pudding and custard for desert, and get doused again with whiskey or more brandy on Christmas Day). When young we were always told the animals were given the gift of speech for one minute at midnight, and the Da would ask if we heard the cats asking for ham (which at that stage was wafting all the over the house). Everyone was asking for ham, man and beast. Two glasses of whiskey and Christmas Cake and biscuits were left on the mantlepiece for Santa. We never thought to ask why two glasses of the good stuff. I must say that was a tradition I maintained myself. It was indeed a deserved reward at 2 or 3 in the morning.

I'd say tensions will emerge over rotating Taoiseach. FF will likely want it full term if they have 8-10 seats more. FG won't want to be FF's bridesmaid and will point that their transfers contributed to FF success as they were more disciplined in giving transfers to FF. When own parties excluded, it was at a rate 60% to 46%. It slightly opens the door to a FF-SF coalition. There will be some in FG that argue for opposition. They had a poor campaign, were punished for arrogance, poor seat management and will likely get less seats than SF despite a 2% higher first preference, and exit polls that showed them higher for second preference. Surprised there's little talk of how poorly they did in this regard. SF on other hand have performed well at constituency level despite a 6% decline at national level. Of course the 14 extra seats probably covers some things up for the 3 main parties.

As the old saying goes about politicians entering the Dáil. If he wasn't a gangster going in, he would have been coming out.

Congrats to Coolera/Strandhill. There won't be a wave surfed all week. Deserving winners and game a good advert for Connacht club football. Hard luck to Padraig Pearses. Have played some good stuff all year but beaten by better team today. I would have rated Pearses good enough to make an All-Ireland, so no reason Coolera/Strandhill cannot beat Cuala.

Ireland has actually one of the youngest populations in Europe, second lowest in EU after Cyprus. It also has one of lowest over 65s. An aging country is not the reason there was no strong vote for change.

It is?

Yes it is.

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/irelands-younger-and-growing-population-bucks-eu-trend/a1895710756.html

And the graph you provided has this context in the article about Ireland.

"However, it has the youngest population of any European Union member state[3] and its population size is predicted to grow for many decades, in contrast with the declining population predicted for most European countries."

This age thing is just lazy X analysis blaming older populations. If younger population want change they have the voting power. Sure maybe it was the weather. The poor craythurs.

Could she do a Hail Mary and offer FF 4 years as Taoiseach versus Simon Harris insisting on a rotating Taoiseach? Depends on the gaps between parties.

Why do that?

You only end up doing a Lim Dem in the UK and end up owning the government failures for things you were not able to drive your way.

For several reasons. A commitment from a FF/SF government that they will press for a border poll in 2030 (it's in the power of a UK SOS but still better then a FF/FG saying it's not a priority). They can also insist on getting Housing. Long shot I know. They will be more comfortable going into opposition.

Ireland has actually one of the youngest populations in Europe, second lowest in EU after Cyprus. It also has one of lowest over 65s. An aging country is not the reason there was no strong vote for change.

They're usually fairly close to the official figures.
These exit polls have taken some of the suspense and excitement out of the counting day.

Can anyone tell me why the Shinners have done so poorly in the last 2 Locals but get around double that  vote in GEs??

The big stage of a general election suits Mary Lou. She is an excellent campaigner and gets a good few blows in during debates. However Pearse Doherty's fine result in Donegal probably ensures he will be new leader in the near future. That said, I don't think he'll have the same impact as a leader as Mary Lou. She definitely made her mark. Could she do a Hail Mary and offer FF 4 years as Taoiseach versus Simon Harris insisting on a rotating Taoiseach? Depends on the gaps between parties.

With 80% tallied:

FF 20.8%, FG 20.0%, SF 18.2%

Looking like Fianna Fáil will now emerge as largest party. FG transfers will help them in that. Some betting still has SF largest, but they are trending below the exit poll.

What happens if Sinn Fein get the most seats, does that give them the right to choose the next government or are they still at the mercy of who wants to team up with them?

They can negotiate. Ultimately it is the Dail that elects the Taoiseach. Sinn Fein will nominate Mary Lou McDonald. Unless she can do a deal with Fianna Fáil, she will get 50 votes at most (SF plus other left)with 87 needed at a minimum.

RTE exit predicts SF largest party
Polymarket (who are not often wrong) say FF will be largest party
But based on the Tally Man so far watching RTE count centers, looks like FG could emerge as largest.
But very hard to predict how many of those last seats will fall.
While it's a drawn out affair, it's one of the most exciting aspects of Irish elections.

That Sligo one is very nice. Best yet. Great county, doing a lot of great things in fairness, and hope they have a great year, the feckers, but not at our expense.

So Sinn Fein, the main opposition party to an historically unpopular government, only managed to pick up a couple of points in support compared to what they got in 2020?

How many seats should they get if that exit poll is accurate?

Sinn would be down on that exit poll from the 24.5.% they secured in 2020. That said the 2020 exit poll undercounted SF by about 2%. In general the exit polls are accurate enough given 1-2%.

Opinion polls were remarkably accurate apart from FF. A government will be hard enough to form unless FF/FG/Labour have the numbers.