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Messages - Smokin Joe

#1
General discussion / Re: Cryptocurrency
February 29, 2024, 04:25:27 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on February 28, 2024, 04:01:11 PMBBC running a Bitcoin rise story, that's a sign to get out.

Not yet, Coinbase is only ranked something like 100 in most popular apps in the US. It gets to almost number 1 at the peak.  Normal Joe Public isn't in to crypto yet this cycle.  The cycle will see us going up a good bit more.  There'll most likely be a pull back at some stage (even I'm surprised it's been straight up) but $62k isn't where we are going to stop this cycle.
#2
General discussion / Re: Cryptocurrency
January 15, 2024, 03:25:48 PM
Quote from: trailer on January 15, 2024, 03:17:46 PM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on January 15, 2024, 03:09:51 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on January 15, 2024, 02:20:06 PMI laugh when I hear of all these predictions about the future price when the truth is nobody has a clue what will happen. Its a game for gamblers and speculators with a few spare quid but you would have to be prepared to lose it all. 

Disagree about having no clue what will happen.  There is a very clear 4 year cycle.  That's why I was was buying in October and November 2022.  Short terms price movements are very volatile but you can't see this image and say that nobody has a clue what will happen
https://twitter.com/rektcapital/status/1738252904564203793/photo/1


It's based of reading patterns in the candles and nothing else. No real world data.

Trading using candles, charts, past cycles and an understanding of where global liquidity and wider economic conditions are at. Absolutely
That's exactly what my aim is.
I buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency to make a profit; try to buy at a price that is lower than I will sell at.
It's not as unpredictable as the mainstream media make it out to be.
#3
General discussion / Re: Cryptocurrency
January 15, 2024, 03:09:51 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on January 15, 2024, 02:20:06 PMI laugh when I hear of all these predictions about the future price when the truth is nobody has a clue what will happen. Its a game for gamblers and speculators with a few spare quid but you would have to be prepared to lose it all. 

Disagree about having no clue what will happen.  There is a very clear 4 year cycle.  That's why I was was buying in October and November 2022.  Short terms price movements are very volatile but you can't see this image and say that nobody has a clue what will happen
https://twitter.com/rektcapital/status/1738252904564203793/photo/1
#4
General discussion / Re: Cryptocurrency
January 15, 2024, 01:50:28 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on January 15, 2024, 09:11:33 AMAny experts out there think Bitcoin has topped out again? That was advice I was getting over the weekend

Yeah, I wouldn't be buying now.  It's been about 3 months of pretty straight up price increases, so I would expect a consolidation for a while.  I see a decent chance it drops to $32k-ish within the next 6 or 8 weeks.
Of course it continue to go straight up, but I don't think that's the most likely outcome given it's run up in advance of the spot ETF announcement.

I'm still very confident of it going much higher by the end of 2025 (based on its cycle history), but I could see a short term cool off.
#5
GAA Discussion / Re: Ulster Club SFC 2023
December 10, 2023, 08:05:08 PM
Quote from: WT4E on December 10, 2023, 07:59:43 PMIs there anywhere to see the coverage of the match from the beginning.

It's on GAAGo
#6
General discussion / Re: Death Notices
December 10, 2023, 10:07:02 AM
The catholic church is just so out of touch. It seems like they can't see that they continue to make themselves ever more irrelevant with decisions like thatt ha tare to benefit them, and not the individual people.

You would have thought a drop in attendances and what appears to be a serious decline in the number of Irish priests would be enough for them to have a strategy session to understand why they are losing market share (in business parlance).

At least the GAA t**ker with rules (even if they are daft) in an attempt to increase the spectacle for the paying public, ie "improve the product".  Doesn't seem like the Church are even that bothered.
#7
Quote from: J70 on December 05, 2023, 04:44:33 PM
Quote from: johnnycool on December 05, 2023, 04:16:23 PM
Quote from: J70 on December 05, 2023, 03:59:48 PM
Quote from: johnnycool on December 05, 2023, 08:54:34 AM
Quote from: J70 on December 03, 2023, 11:49:17 AM
Quote from: theskull1 on December 01, 2023, 09:34:18 PMJoe Biden and his understanding of how inflation works

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1730247565537390998?t=TPRTYPx7Ny1jN0VS2XsF3g&s=19

Why is this in the WTF thread?

because the "leader of the free world" is gaslighting people in relation to inflation, either that or he's just plan dumb but I've seen similar from our neighbours over in London, but they're gaslighting people as well.

How is it gaslighting?

Is price gouging NOT taking place?

Has inflation NOT been steadily coming down, at least in the US?


Price gouging is taking place but the fact that inflation has dropped doesn't mean that items are getting cheaper, they won't, the only change is that the rate of increase is slowing, but it's still going up.

If anything gouging exacerbated inflation as companies put their arms in and increased their profits exponentially.

Hammer excess profits with taxation and that'll take the will out of companies to rip people off, but that's a bogey concept to the trickle down economics fanatics.


It's not Joe Biden's job to explain what the word inflation means. Surely most adults understand that central banks aim for a low, steady rate of inflation as a sign of a healthy economy? That prices are continually ticking up, even in the best of times?

And you yourself acknowledged that gouging made things way worse. Is that not what Biden was on about?

I'd love to know how inflation (even low) is a sign of a healthy economy?
It means that for your savings not to lose value you have to invest it, so you risk losing some of your capital, and then even if you do gain you pay capital gains tax on your investment gains that you had to invest.  All because you didn't want to lose purchasing power with your previously hard earned savings.
Think about that; the governments get tax revenues from the investment gains of people who have to invest not to lose ground.

People don't realise that inflation is a means by which purchasing power is taking away from people; how is that good?
Ideally the powers that be want the infaltion to be low enough so people generally don't notice it, but it doesn't change the fact of what inflation does.
#8
General discussion / Re: Cryptocurrency
December 05, 2023, 10:25:54 AM
Quote from: Mourne Red on December 05, 2023, 10:10:10 AM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on December 05, 2023, 06:50:48 AM
Quote from: JohnDenver on December 04, 2023, 11:03:02 PM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on December 04, 2023, 10:06:33 PM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on November 09, 2022, 08:11:16 PMAs I said on this thread a few months ago, I wouldn't touch anything else right now, but I'm happy that Bitcoin is a great purchase at the current prices (sub $17k) to hold for a couple of years.  I'm happy for this quote to be retrieved in 2 years.
This bear market has shown that there is Bitcoin and "crypto". Bitcoin is not crypto.

It's not rocket science.  As an investment, provide you use just a little bit of common sense it's hard to get much better risk adjusted returns as the boom / bust cycles have been so strong since its inception.

Do you have a price in your head that is your cashout point?  Or even a partial cashout.

A lot harder in practice to cash out I know, if / when the price continues to rise

I sold about 15% when we hit $40k a few days ago

Would you not have held until the ETFs are approved in January? I'm in Altcoins (BTC a bit rich for me) so have about a years hold before I sell

I've kept 85%!
I don't have any alts at all yet, but could see that changing in a few weeks / months as Bitcoin dominance probably gets near a peak for this cycle.
#9
General discussion / Re: Cryptocurrency
December 05, 2023, 06:50:48 AM
Quote from: JohnDenver on December 04, 2023, 11:03:02 PM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on December 04, 2023, 10:06:33 PM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on November 09, 2022, 08:11:16 PMAs I said on this thread a few months ago, I wouldn't touch anything else right now, but I'm happy that Bitcoin is a great purchase at the current prices (sub $17k) to hold for a couple of years.  I'm happy for this quote to be retrieved in 2 years.
This bear market has shown that there is Bitcoin and "crypto". Bitcoin is not crypto.

It's not rocket science.  As an investment, provide you use just a little bit of common sense it's hard to get much better risk adjusted returns as the boom / bust cycles have been so strong since its inception.

Do you have a price in your head that is your cashout point?  Or even a partial cashout.

A lot harder in practice to cash out I know, if / when the price continues to rise

I sold about 15% when we hit $40k a few days ago
#10
General discussion / Re: Cryptocurrency
December 04, 2023, 10:06:33 PM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on November 09, 2022, 08:11:16 PMAs I said on this thread a few months ago, I wouldn't touch anything else right now, but I'm happy that Bitcoin is a great purchase at the current prices (sub $17k) to hold for a couple of years.  I'm happy for this quote to be retrieved in 2 years.
This bear market has shown that there is Bitcoin and "crypto". Bitcoin is not crypto.

It's not rocket science.  As an investment, provide you use just a little bit of common sense it's hard to get much better risk adjusted returns as the boom / bust cycles have been so strong since its inception.
#11
GAA Discussion / Re: Ulster Club IFC/JFC 2023
November 27, 2023, 09:09:01 AM
Quote from: general_lee on November 27, 2023, 07:46:51 AM
Quote from: ranch on November 26, 2023, 09:39:59 PM
Quote from: general_lee on November 26, 2023, 09:26:45 PM
Quote from: SouthOfThe Bann on November 26, 2023, 07:56:57 PMMassive win for Cullyhanna today v Liatroim. Sad to see Armagh abusing the system and senior team playing intermediate but thats what Cavan Club teams are up against.

I for one will be supporting Ballyhaise the underdog in the final.

Cullyhanna were the 18th placed team in the Armagh league structures this season. No cooking the books in Armagh, unlike Cavan.

Do you think if every club in Armagh are at full strength that they're the 18th best team in the county? Personally, I don't. They would push, and probably beat, teams such as Mullabawn, Dromintee, Silverbridge. The fact they're in intermediate due to a poor league performance in 2022, when they were short of their best players, shows why league and championship shouldn't be linked in my view.

Good luck to Cullyhanna in the final, it would be great to see them get a crack at an all Ireland.
At full strength they're a similar standard of about 10 teams in Armagh who'd all beat each other on any given day. They were short their best players for near 15 years and stayed senior that entire time. They'd a few extra men unavailable for one reason or another last year and got relegated. Not like any eyebrows were raised, they then lost 4 times in the 3rd tier of the leagues this year which IMO shows that was their level.

In fairness they suffered most of their league defeats with the 3 county men away. They turned into a different team after Armagh were knocked out this summer; at intermediate level the county players make such a difference - as you would hope / expect.
#12
General discussion / Re: Diesel, petrol, oil price watch
November 22, 2023, 04:23:42 PM
I see that crude oil has fallen 4% today.
Anyone know, typically, how long that drop will take to be seen in home heating oil prices?
#13
General discussion / Re: TV Show recommendations
September 28, 2023, 07:55:52 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 28, 2023, 07:53:32 PM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on September 28, 2023, 06:30:14 PMI have 90 days free Apple+ TV.
I have watched (and enjoyed) Hijack.  Is there anything else worth watching on the platform?
If you like Sci Fi, Foundation is excellent (s2 just over). Also sci fi, The Silo, started strong, ended ok.

Morning show for a TV show related drama is pretty good.

No, not sci fi please
#14
General discussion / Re: TV Show recommendations
September 28, 2023, 06:30:14 PM
I have 90 days free Apple+ TV.
I have watched (and enjoyed) Hijack.  Is there anything else worth watching on the platform?
#15
GAA Discussion / Re: RG at arms length
September 10, 2023, 11:09:39 AM
Where are they alleging he's coaching?