Westminster Election 12th December 2019

[armaghniac]

Put simply I cannot see how anyone in RoI could vote for a UI without certainty on these issues and I cannot see how a UK government could give that certainty. Any promise by the UK government to part fund NI within a UI is likely to face legal challenge. UK has responsibilities under GFA and effectively incentivising a change in the constitutional   position would certainly face legal scrutiny. What way that would go I don't know. In the interim I would think it dangerous to rely simply on the fact that HM Treasury would have a financial incentive to ditch NI. The incentive might not prove enough. Judges will have their say.

Any contribution would likely be associated with continued payment of pensions for civil servants and so forth,  Westminster can legislate for this. I don't see judges being the problem, the issue is a formula that would lead to England subsidising an independent Scotland would not be acceptable. I'd say they'd be happy to sign up to diminishing contribution to NI as the alternative is an increasing contribution to NI. 

Separately the very idea that there would be no "British Interference" in  a UI is also laughable. People need to get their head around the fact that in every possible likelihood a UI continues to involve a NI but devolved form Dublin rather and London with GB taking up the role that RoI currently take with the North/South and East/West bodies continuing to play their minor roles. The reality is that the NI structures will be maintained in such a way that would facilitate NI voting a future date to leave a UI. GFA is based upon the principle of consent of the people of NI not the "principle of consent up to the point where consent is given for a UI at which point its simple majority rule with the majority being established on a 32 county basis.

In no way are people in border areas going to agree to the continuation of border discontinuities, the 6 counties is gone.  There is no point complaining about the cost and then keep two administrations going.

[seafoid]

Lead down to 10

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-election-poll-panelbase-idUSKBN1XW249

[seafoid]

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/northern-ireland-jeremy-corbyn-dup-uup-1319959

[smelmoth]

Just read the last 3 pages there. Some staggering stuff.

The notion that NI will not be hugely expensive for RoI to take on is I presume a joke. NI costs GB £11bn p.a. That's roughly £180 per head in GB but £6,100 per head in RoI. Pretty significant difference. People in GB more or less get the public services that NI get. This isn't the case in RoI. RoI taxpayers would have to pay into a system to deliver services in NI that they wouldn't get in RoI.

Reliance on GB to stand-on to fund a NI that is outside UK would need to be substantiated. Have UK committed to do so? Can they commit to do so before the 2 referenda? Are people to blithely expect GB to stand on when they vote in a referendum and then find out later whether the hope will be realised? Talk here that NI would not have to take part of the GB national debt with it is based upon what exactly? Talk that GB would have to honour the pensions of people living in NI would be based on what exactly?  Using examples of people living in county X and then emigrating to county B isn't really the same as what we are talking about here.   
 
Put simply I cannot see how anyone in RoI could vote for a UI without certainty on these issues and I cannot see how a UK government could give that certainty. Any promise by the UK government to part fund NI within a UI is likely to face legal challenge. UK has responsibilities under GFA and effectively incentivising a change in the constitutional   position would certainly face legal scrutiny. What way that would go I don't know. In the interim I would think it dangerous to rely simply on the fact that HM Treasury would have a financial incentive to ditch NI. The incentive might not prove enough. Judges will have their say.

Separately the very idea that there would be no "British Interference" in  a UI is also laughable. People need to get their head around the fact that in every possible likelihood a UI continues to involve a NI but devolved form Dublin rather and London with GB taking up the role that RoI currently take with the North/South and East/West bodies continuing to play their minor roles. The reality is that the NI structures will be maintained in such a way that would facilitate NI voting a future date to leave a UI. GFA is based upon the principle of consent of the people of NI not the "principle of consent up to the point where consent is given for a UI at which point its simple majority rule with the majority being established on a 32 county basis.

SF do indeed make it clear that they are an abstentionist party.  That isn't sufficient to make the whole issue go away. I know what my attitude would be to a Unionist party that stood on an abstentionist basis in NI elections for seats in a future Dublin legislative assembly.  My attitude to SF is exactly the same.

So you're saying that a UI could effectively be reversed if it was decided after reunification to call another border poll whereby the previously subsumed 6 counties and the 26 counties could together decide to go back to the reimposition of the border? Honestly never knew that, in that case there will never be a final settlement under the current provisions. Probably an irrelevance since demographics are only going in one direction but it wasn't something I was aware of.

Technically a UI could be reversed. In reality the probability is extremely low due to the inevitability of the line in bold. It is also the case that whilst the GFA sets out the precise mechanics for the first change in the constitutional change in NI it does not set out the precise steps for any further changes ( probably because of the one way nature of the demographic shift). The point here isn't the likelihood of a UI being reversed but rather the nature of what a UI will look like. Some still cling to the idea of a unitary 32 county republic with Amhrán na bhFiann as the anthem, compulsory Irish language at school and an inability to get a primary school or non STEM subject secondary school teaching post without being able to speak Irish kinda state. That isn't going to happen. GFA has no expiry date. It recognises the principle of consent of the people of NI. That principle has no expiry date. The GFA mandates the RoI (in the event of a UI) to run the place with rigorous impartiality in respect of the differing cultures and for the equal treatment for the identity, ethos and aspirations of both communities. Put simply there will be a NI entity with power sharing inside any UI

[smelmoth]

Put simply I cannot see how anyone in RoI could vote for a UI without certainty on these issues and I cannot see how a UK government could give that certainty. Any promise by the UK government to part fund NI within a UI is likely to face legal challenge. UK has responsibilities under GFA and effectively incentivising a change in the constitutional   position would certainly face legal scrutiny. What way that would go I don't know. In the interim I would think it dangerous to rely simply on the fact that HM Treasury would have a financial incentive to ditch NI. The incentive might not prove enough. Judges will have their say.

Any contribution would likely be associated with continued payment of pensions for civil servants and so forth,  Westminster can legislate for this. I don't see judges being the problem, the issue is a formula that would lead to England subsidising an independent Scotland would not be acceptable. I'd say they'd be happy to sign up to diminishing contribution to NI as the alternative is an increasing contribution to NI. 

Separately the very idea that there would be no "British Interference" in  a UI is also laughable. People need to get their head around the fact that in every possible likelihood a UI continues to involve a NI but devolved form Dublin rather and London with GB taking up the role that RoI currently take with the North/South and East/West bodies continuing to play their minor roles. The reality is that the NI structures will be maintained in such a way that would facilitate NI voting a future date to leave a UI. GFA is based upon the principle of consent of the people of NI not the "principle of consent up to the point where consent is given for a UI at which point its simple majority rule with the majority being established on a 32 county basis.

In no way are people in border areas going to agree to the continuation of border discontinuities, the 6 counties is gone.  There is no point complaining about the cost and then keep two administrations going.

You are probably aware of recent examples of UK governments wanting to do things for reasons of convenience and political expediency but being held to the letter of the law by judges. Judges are not easily dismissed

[marty34]

Anybody, with a few weeks to go, hazard a guess - educated or otherwise - on final make-up of Westminister?

[Chief]

Put simply I cannot see how anyone in RoI could vote for a UI without certainty on these issues and I cannot see how a UK government could give that certainty. Any promise by the UK government to part fund NI within a UI is likely to face legal challenge. UK has responsibilities under GFA and effectively incentivising a change in the constitutional   position would certainly face legal scrutiny. What way that would go I don't know. In the interim I would think it dangerous to rely simply on the fact that HM Treasury would have a financial incentive to ditch NI. The incentive might not prove enough. Judges will have their say.

Any contribution would likely be associated with continued payment of pensions for civil servants and so forth,  Westminster can legislate for this. I don't see judges being the problem, the issue is a formula that would lead to England subsidising an independent Scotland would not be acceptable. I'd say they'd be happy to sign up to diminishing contribution to NI as the alternative is an increasing contribution to NI. 

Separately the very idea that there would be no "British Interference" in  a UI is also laughable. People need to get their head around the fact that in every possible likelihood a UI continues to involve a NI but devolved form Dublin rather and London with GB taking up the role that RoI currently take with the North/South and East/West bodies continuing to play their minor roles. The reality is that the NI structures will be maintained in such a way that would facilitate NI voting a future date to leave a UI. GFA is based upon the principle of consent of the people of NI not the "principle of consent up to the point where consent is given for a UI at which point its simple majority rule with the majority being established on a 32 county basis.

In no way are people in border areas going to agree to the continuation of border discontinuities, the 6 counties is gone.  There is no point complaining about the cost and then keep two administrations going.

The onus for funding a UI is on the Irish Government - not the British. Whether it's via borrowing, taxation or cuts it doesn't matter.

Ultimately it's up to us to find the money - simple. The idea of looking to outsiders for help is not compatible with independence

[Farrandeelin]

Anybody, with a few weeks to go, hazard a guess - educated or otherwise - on final make-up of Westminister?

My gut is telling me there won't be a Tory majority.

[Chief]

Anybody, with a few weeks to go, hazard a guess - educated or otherwise - on final make-up of Westminister?

Tory Minority Government, without enough assistance from DUP/Brexit Party to get their version of a deal through in the lifetime of the next parliament. More paralysis or another election in the spring.

[omaghjoe]

If there is Tory minority government without enough DUP support surely that would mean the maths would work out for a rainbow coalition lead by Corbyn?

The polls are showing a big shift back to the big 2... not sure how much tactical voting is part of that but the Brexit party look to have tanked. Would be impressive if Corbyn managed to see of their threat to the labour seats in the north of England.

[oneflewoverthecuckoonest]

listening to john curtice on the radio last night and he was concentrating on many less published regional polls, he is predicting a significant tory majority.

my read is that the Libs have crashed under a moan-pot leader and they will be lucky to reach 20 seats.

for now, I see the tories reaching 370, a 40-50 majority, the only thing that could stop them is if labour pull the stunt of trying to rob some marginal via postal voting.

much better a big tory majority and getting brexit done and dusted than a tiny majority or another tory minority propped up by DUP.

[smelmoth]

Didn't hear the Curtice interview but his regional approach is more likely to be accurate . All along he has predicted that leave votes convert to seats more readily than Remain. That is not just the split of the Remain vote amongst parties but also the runaway Remain majorities in many seats still only equates to 1 seat per constituency (to state the bleeding obvious).

Lib Dem performance and indeed their relative success in taking Remain votes from Labour and Tories is key. Labour's retention of Leave voters is also key.

[Walter Cronc]

On the Lib Dem leader, jeez she's hard to listen to!!

[seafoid]

It's very hard to predict. The Tories seem to have absorbed
the Brexit party leave vote but are running a poor campaign. A lot will
depend on turnout.

If the Tories did win with a decent majority by this time next year the UK and the occupied counties would be looking at a No Deal exit and that would usher in a period of absolute chaos, featuring borders trína chéile, the end of the NHS and a crap deal with the US. Things could get a lot worse before they get worse.

[imtommygunn]

The NHS is crumbling but it will take quite a few years yet if anything happens with sales / privatisation. I sadly expect the tories to win by a decent majority 

I see "loyalists" having heated meetings now. There are rabble intent on rousing things up here though I guess that gets them voting. Look at the predicament we're in... what do we do... sure we'll vote for the party that put us here.