Why do people like Bertie?

[Rossie11]

At the very best he is shady. I think everyone knows it but gives him the benefit of the doubt as the likable rogue.
How else can it be justified that the people of this country would elect a leader who was going to be up to his neck in a corruption tribunal 4 days later.. Or are we that naive??

Without doubt Cowen won this election for Bertie. He got stuck into the opposition in the final week which swung it in my book.

[Fishead_Sam]

All this financial stuff may well wear old Bertie down. He certainly seemed sick and tired of it on Friday evening on the TV. I've never seen him so drained looking.

If he goes, will we have an Offaly Taoiseach?

Better than a Mayo one anyway

TOLD YA SO

Also I would not write off the Mayo Taoiseach yet, its going to get alot harder to join a Coalition for anyone with a Corrupt FF and an Offalyman who knew his Godfather was dodgey.

[Bord na Mona man]

If he goes, will we have an Offaly Taoiseach?

John Bracken!

[AZOffaly]

Fishead. There is no way , zero, that Enda Kenny will have enough seats to form a Government and become Taoiseach. Even if people like the Greens or the Labour Party get antsy at forming a government with FF under Bertie, the PDs (both of them) and the 'gene pool' Independents will be almost enough, just like in 1997, especially if Michael Lowry or Tony Gregory or Finian McGrath join up as well.

The Maths just don't add up for Fine Gael.

78 Fianna Fail

51 Fine Gael & 20 Labour & 6 Greens & 5 Independents & 2 PDs (or 4 Sinn Fein) would be all required to form a governement, and that motley crew wouldn't last 6 months, even IF the likes of Mary Harney, Jackie Healy Rae, Beverly Flynn and co would go with them.

Given the fact that Enda has said he will not deal with Sinn Fein, even losing Jackie Healy Rae will not give him the number he needs.

In my view at this point, the most likely combination is FF/PD/Ind like in 97. I thought before the election that this would not be a runner because I didn't think FF would win 78 seats.

After this, I think FF and the Greens would be next likely. Again, I thought this would unfeasible before the election because of FF numbers.

Then thirdly is the option I thought most likely before the election, a FF/Labour pact with either Bertie or Pat Rabbite getting the shaft. Lads like Howlin are mad to be in government, and deeply resented having to act as water carriers for Fine Gael. If there was a sniff of a deal there, you can bet your bottom dollar they'd be all over it like a rash, Rabbite or no Rabbite.

By the way, this election makes me think of 'The Life of Brian'. Substitute 'Progressive Democrats for PPFJ.

"Whatever happened to the Popular People's Front of Judea anyway?"
"He's over there"

[Billys Boots]

Looks like Bertie is putting down a marker for his more likely bedfellows by sidling up to his least likely partners first.

From RTE.ie:

Talks on forming new Government to begin, Monday, 28 May 2007 14:14

Negotiations are due to get under way this week on the formation of a coalition government in the aftermath of the General Election.

The Independent TD, Finian McGrath, has said he believes Fianna Fáil is considering approaching the Labour Party to form a coalition government.

The Dublin North Central representative is one of five Independent TDs widely believed to be the subject of approaches from Fianna Fáil to help support a coalition government.

But Deputy McGrath along with fellow Independent TDs, Tony Gregory and Jackie Healy Rae confirmed today that they have had approaches from Fine Gael and Labour, and not from Fianna Fáil.

In an RTÉ radio interview this morning, Deputy McGrath said his political instinct was that Fianna Fáil could use approaches to Independent TDs as a smokescreen, while negotiating with the Labour Party behind the scenes.

Deputy Tony Gregory has also raised the prospect of one of the five Independent deputies being offered a seat at the cabinet table.

Bertie Ahern is in pole position to return as Taoiseach for a third consecutive term - the first man since Eamon de Valera to do so.

On Saturday, Mr Ahern said his first preference is to form a new coalition with the PDs and like-minded Independents - although given their depleted ranks the numbers are very tight.

He could seek a coalition deal with the Greens, which would be stronger numerically, but might require more policy change.

There is the outside bet of a deal with Labour, but the cost in terms of seats at the cabinet table would be higher.

[resdubwhite]

Labour it is so.

Without Bertie and Pat.

[Rossie11]

Labour would want to heed the warning from PDs collapse. Steer clear of health and justice in the carve up for cabinet seats.
They wont be improved under this government and Labour would become the scapegoats and suffer a meltdown in next election.

In a double whammy it would mean even with another improvement Fine Gael couldnt find a big enough partner to challenge FF and no matter how much they mess up in the next 5 years in would go FF for a 4th term..

[Hardy]

I don't think Labour will do it, for the reasons stated and I don't think it's FF's preferred option either - too many mercs foregone. I believe Bertie when he says he favours PDs and independents. He's averse to change and this worked before. Plus he has Harney to take care of Angola.

BTW, the stuff from the Tribunal this morning is what was leaked and published in the Mail on Sunday 3 or 4 Sundays ago. What's new to me is the story that Bertie has denied ever doing any dollar transactions, plus the extra detail that AIB has submitted its records for the branch in question on the day in question. On that day, when Bertie said Celia lodged £30K sterling, the total sterling transactions on record are £1,500-odd. But Celia's lodgement, apparently, equals exactly US$45K at the exchange rate of the day. It's going to be hard for Bertie to square the two stories.

[Declan]

It's going to be hard for Bertie to square the two stories.

But sure nobody cares Hardy

[resdubwhite]

The more this week continues the more I think we're heading for a hung dail.

[Billys Boots]

Another election???

[Hardy]

It's going to be hard for Bertie to square the two stories.

But sure nobody cares Hardy

I'm not sure what to think. It might not be that nobody cares, but that nobody believes the media, or at least people would rather consider a man innocent until proven guilty, rather than the other way round. We had someone on one of the threads here calling for Bertie to prove he's not corrupt, but most people think it should work the other way.

However, if he's caught out by the tribunal as having lied about his finances, after his repeated protestations of innocence and victimisation, it's hard to see how he could survive that, politically.

[magpie seanie]

Another election

Wouldn't that be brilliant!

[resdubwhite]

Another election

Wouldn't that be brilliant!

why not?

The mahon tribunal will need to go into recess again.

[AZOffaly]

I think a government will be formed, Bertie will continue to fend off allegations, until he eventually crumbles. At that point the 2 PDs and the Indos will be full of righteous indignation until Brian Cowen is swiftly appointed Bertie's successor. Biffo will bang heads and everyone will settle down until Cowen becomes subject to a vicious drug rumour