Arlene's bigotry shines through

Started by StGallsGAA, February 14, 2018, 01:13:21 PM

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omagh_gael

This is up on the BBC website at the minute...


It is likely Catholics will outnumber Protestants by 2021 in Northern Ireland, according to a leading academic.

Dr Paul Nolan, who specialises in monitoring the peace process and social trends, told BBC News NI that there could be more Catholics than Protestants in Northern Ireland by the centenary of the foundation of the state.

However, he says unionists should not be too alarmed because you cannot necessarily equate being a Catholic with supporting a united Ireland.

Image caption
Census figures in 2011 showed a narrowing gap in the population
The last census in 2011 put the Protestant population at 48%, just 3% more than Catholics at 45%.

More recent figures from 2016 show that among those of working age 44% are now Catholic and 40% Protestant.

Image caption
Figures from 2016 of working age population
The difference is even more marked among schoolchildren with 51% Catholic, 37% Protestant.

Only among the over 60s is there a majority of Protestants with 57%, compared to Catholics on 35%.

Dr Nolan said: "Three years from now we will end up, I think, in the ironic situation on the centenary of the state where we actually have a state that has a Catholic majority."

Looking at the last census in 2011, Mr Nolan points out although 45% identified as being from a Catholic background, only 25% claimed an exclusively Irish identity.

Image caption
Figures among school-age children are more clear
He said: "The future of unionism depends entirely upon one thing - and I mean unionism with a small 'u' - it depends on winning the support of people who do not regard themselves to be unionists with a capital 'U'.

"In other words people who do not identify with the traditional trappings of unionism; people who would give their support for a UK government framework and that's a sizeable proportion of Catholics provided they are not alienated by any form of triumphalism or anything that seems to be a rejection of their cultural identity as nationalists."

What's next?
It is likely there will be "more examination of what a United Ireland might mean," according to Dr Nolan.

"Does it mean one parliament in Dublin or two parliaments? One in Belfast and one in Dublin?

"I think the more that gets unpacked, the more opinion will move back and forward. Its not going to go just in one direction.

Image caption
Dr Nolan warns not to rely too heavily on polls for an indication on support for a united Ireland
Dismissing opinion polls declaring support for a united Ireland, Dr Nolan says the polls ask the wrong question.

"If we got to the situation where people go into a polling booth and have to put the mark against a united Ireland, it's very hard for anyone to predict it. Just ask Hillary Clinton, ask David Cameron, ask Theresa May: were they right to put their faith in the opinion polls? I don't think so."

Meanwhile the Sinn Féin President Mary Lou McDonald responded to the DUP leader Arlene Foster saying she would "probably" leave in the event of a united Ireland.

Ms McDonald told BBC News NI: "Of course unionists have to be at home in a new Ireland. It has to be as much a home for Arlene Foster and her family as for mine.

"So, yes, let's have the discussion.

"As far as I'm concerned nothing is taboo. Let's talk about the flag, let's talk about the anthem, let's talk about every nuance and every aspect of Irish life north and south."

The View is on BBC One Northern Ireland at 22:40 BST


The bit in bold highlights the utter lunacy of the DUP's brexit policy. They couldn't have done anything more suicidal if they wanted to increase the potential small u vote.

Applesisapples

Quote from: BennyCake on April 19, 2018, 04:44:15 PM
Quote from: Applesisapples on April 19, 2018, 04:28:32 PM
Quote from: BennyCake on April 19, 2018, 03:40:48 PM
Quote from: Applesisapples on April 19, 2018, 03:32:29 PM
Quote from: Orior on April 19, 2018, 11:57:13 AM
Mike Nesbitt was a beacon of light in the unionist world and tried to break away from the entrenched attitudes. And look what happened him.
No he didn't really, but that was because he was constrained. Unionists can legitimately expose a UK as we can a UI. I'd like to think that any future UI would give a place to loyalist icons and flags and identity in a way denied to the nationalist community at present.

Is that what it's all about though? Most nationalists in the North don't need a icon or flag to declare what or who they are. If you have to resort to that, well that explains a lot about you.
its about mutual respect

Yes, but you're never going to achieve that with flegs and icons.
Yes but if the state only reflects one identity that is an issue.

trailer

It's interesting times certainly. A lot of Republicans are hanging their hope on 50%+1 catholic majority. Unfortunately that ain't going to work. Any new Ireland will have to be all encompassing, where a place exists for Unionists and Loyalists. It's a challenge to Nationalism and Republicanism to make the case. How it would work and what it would look like.
While Brexit is a challenge and a lot of doomsday scenarios are touted about, in reality it probably won't resemble the Mad Max scenario that some portray. SF seem to hope it will and are probably pushing for this. They hated Europe all along anyway and as the saying goes never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake. So they probably see an equation Brexit + demographics = UI.
Nationalism can't hang onto demographics or indeed Brexit to do this job for us. We must make the case.

Interestingly, last night on BBC's The View Christopher Stalford seem to see the value in making an honest case for the Union. If Unionism (ie: The DUP) were able to promote a society in NI where Nationalism had it's place and OO shows of strength, bonfires etc where more controlled or certainly less triumphalist for example, this would could placate a huge swathe of Nationalists who have no real strong desire to see a UI. There's a comfortable Nationalism out there. Brexit and other issues does poke it from time to time, but for the most part it's happy with its lot.

Rossfan

Some years ago Robinson was talking at a DUPUDA annual conference of making the Union more attractive to Catholics.
Then Belfast City Council stopped flying the Butcher's and he jumped back behind the tribal barricade.
The Dupes and Unionist majority Councils seem totally unwilling to take any cognisance of the fact there are 2 Nationalities in the 6 Cos.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

HiMucker

Quote from: trailer on April 20, 2018, 12:16:25 PM
It's interesting times certainly. A lot of Republicans are hanging their hope on 50%+1 catholic majority. Unfortunately that ain't going to work. Any new Ireland will have to be all encompassing, where a place exists for Unionists and Loyalists. It's a challenge to Nationalism and Republicanism to make the case. How it would work and what it would look like.
While Brexit is a challenge and a lot of doomsday scenarios are touted about, in reality it probably won't resemble the Mad Max scenario that some portray. SF seem to hope it will and are probably pushing for this. They hated Europe all along anyway and as the saying goes never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake. So they probably see an equation Brexit + demographics = UI.
Nationalism can't hang onto demographics or indeed Brexit to do this job for us. We must make the case.

Interestingly, last night on BBC's The View Christopher Stalford seem to see the value in making an honest case for the Union. If Unionism (ie: The DUP) were able to promote a society in NI where Nationalism had it's place and OO shows of strength, bonfires etc where more controlled or certainly less triumphalist for example, this would could placate a huge swathe of Nationalists who have no real strong desire to see a UI. There's a comfortable Nationalism out there. Brexit and other issues does poke it from time to time, but for the most part it's happy with its lot.
They would be wrong then.  A lot may be hanging their hat on 50%+1 in a border pole, and there is nothing wrong with that.

Applesisapples

Quote from: HiMucker on April 20, 2018, 12:46:22 PM
Quote from: trailer on April 20, 2018, 12:16:25 PM
It's interesting times certainly. A lot of Republicans are hanging their hope on 50%+1 catholic majority. Unfortunately that ain't going to work. Any new Ireland will have to be all encompassing, where a place exists for Unionists and Loyalists. It's a challenge to Nationalism and Republicanism to make the case. How it would work and what it would look like.
While Brexit is a challenge and a lot of doomsday scenarios are touted about, in reality it probably won't resemble the Mad Max scenario that some portray. SF seem to hope it will and are probably pushing for this. They hated Europe all along anyway and as the saying goes never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake. So they probably see an equation Brexit + demographics = UI.
Nationalism can't hang onto demographics or indeed Brexit to do this job for us. We must make the case.

Interestingly, last night on BBC's The View Christopher Stalford seem to see the value in making an honest case for the Union. If Unionism (ie: The DUP) were able to promote a society in NI where Nationalism had it's place and OO shows of strength, bonfires etc where more controlled or certainly less triumphalist for example, this would could placate a huge swathe of Nationalists who have no real strong desire to see a UI. There's a comfortable Nationalism out there. Brexit and other issues does poke it from time to time, but for the most part it's happy with its lot.
They would be wrong then.  A lot may be hanging their hat on 50%+1 in a border pole, and there is nothing wrong with that.
You can hang anything you want on a border pole, its the result of the poll though that counts. ;D

Taylor

50% +1 in a catholic majority is a far cry from 50% +1 in a border poll

JPGJOHNNYG

Quote from: Taylor on April 20, 2018, 02:05:09 PM
50% +1 in a catholic majority is a far cry from 50% +1 in a border poll

Hard brexit means more greens and alliance voters supporting UI than UK according to the recent lucid talk poll many who whould be neither catholic nor republican. This crap that people are afraid of changing the status quo has been blown apart by brexit. After all how is a United Ireland any more of a change than brexit. They both change the status quo in fact a UI within the EU would probably be less of a hiccup.

trailer

Quote from: Rossfan on April 20, 2018, 12:26:46 PM
Some years ago Robinson was talking at a DUPUDA annual conference of making the Union more attractive to Catholics.
Then Belfast City Council stopped flying the Butcher's and he jumped back behind the tribal barricade.
The Dupes and Unionist majority Councils seem totally unwilling to take any cognisance of the fact there are 2 Nationalities in the 6 Cos.

I agree. But it will be to their detriment. A happy Nationalist isn't talking about a UI.

AQMP

Quote from: trailer on April 20, 2018, 02:26:37 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on April 20, 2018, 12:26:46 PM
Some years ago Robinson was talking at a DUPUDA annual conference of making the Union more attractive to Catholics.
Then Belfast City Council stopped flying the Butcher's and he jumped back behind the tribal barricade.
The Dupes and Unionist majority Councils seem totally unwilling to take any cognisance of the fact there are 2 Nationalities in the 6 Cos.

I agree. But it will be to their detriment. A happy Nationalist isn't talking about a UI.

Hmmm, yes and no.  I'm the wrong side of 50 and there's been more serious talk about a UI in the last 18 months than in the previous 95 years!  I know a lot of soft and small "n" Nationalists who are very unhappy about Brexit.  They are persuadable, so are the Kellie Armstrong types in Alliance, a lot of Greens and there must be some unknowns who would vote for a UI.  This is going to sound a wee bit callous but if we persuade all those then we don't need that many Unionists to change their minds to make 50%+1 a possibility.  The issue might be, what do we do after that!?

I've said this before but what's needed is a grouping to come forward, along the lines of the business people who sent the letter to Leo recently, who are not directly affiliated to SF to lead a UI campaign.  We also need robust answers to all the questions that will be asked about what a UI will look like.  There's about 5 years work there alone.

Also, I must say I've often been critical of Colum Eastwood but I thought he was very good on The View last night in a "debate", of sorts, with Christopher Stalford and Kellie Armstrong.

WT4E

Quote from: AQMP on April 20, 2018, 03:35:22 PM
Quote from: trailer on April 20, 2018, 02:26:37 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on April 20, 2018, 12:26:46 PM
Some years ago Robinson was talking at a DUPUDA annual conference of making the Union more attractive to Catholics.
Then Belfast City Council stopped flying the Butcher's and he jumped back behind the tribal barricade.
The Dupes and Unionist majority Councils seem totally unwilling to take any cognisance of the fact there are 2 Nationalities in the 6 Cos.

I agree. But it will be to their detriment. A happy Nationalist isn't talking about a UI.

Hmmm, yes and no.  I'm the wrong side of 50 and there's been more serious talk about a UI in the last 18 months than in the previous 95 years!  I know a lot of soft and small "n" Nationalists who are very unhappy about Brexit.  They are persuadable, so are the Kellie Armstrong types in Alliance, a lot of Greens and there must be some unknowns who would vote for a UI.  This is going to sound a wee bit callous but if we persuade all those then we don't need that many Unionists to change their minds to make 50%+1 a possibility.  The issue might be, what do we do after that!?

I've said this before but what's needed is a grouping to come forward, along the lines of the business people who sent the letter to Leo recently, who are not directly affiliated to SF to lead a UI campaign.  We also need robust answers to all the questions that will be asked about what a UI will look like.  There's about 5 years work there alone.

Also, I must say I've often been critical of Colum Eastwood but I thought he was very good on The View last night in a "debate", of sorts, with Christopher Stalford and Kellie Armstrong.

Kinda looked like Stalford fancied him! Don't know much about him but he did a way better job than Arlene but then again she can't remember anything!

trueblue1234

Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on April 20, 2018, 02:22:26 PM
Quote from: Taylor on April 20, 2018, 02:05:09 PM
50% +1 in a catholic majority is a far cry from 50% +1 in a border poll

Hard brexit means more greens and alliance voters supporting UI than UK according to the recent lucid talk poll many who whould be neither catholic nor republican. This crap that people are afraid of changing the status quo has been blown apart by brexit. After all how is a United Ireland any more of a change than brexit. They both change the status quo in fact a UI within the EU would probably be less of a hiccup.

This is an excellent point. one thing the Unionists had on their side was the status quo and the fact many people oppose change. Brexit has meant there's going to be change now regardless.
Grammar: the difference between knowing your shit

BennyCake

Quote from: trailer on April 20, 2018, 02:26:37 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on April 20, 2018, 12:26:46 PM
Some years ago Robinson was talking at a DUPUDA annual conference of making the Union more attractive to Catholics.
Then Belfast City Council stopped flying the Butcher's and he jumped back behind the tribal barricade.
The Dupes and Unionist majority Councils seem totally unwilling to take any cognisance of the fact there are 2 Nationalities in the 6 Cos.

I agree. But it will be to their detriment. A happy Nationalist isn't talking about a UI.

Exactly. Especially now with reduced unionist majority/Brexit etc, unionism should be bending over backwards to show nationalists they're better off in The uk. Likewise, for SF.

Instead it's "no surrender" and "tiocfaidh ar la".

BennyCake

Quote from: AQMP on April 20, 2018, 03:35:22 PM
Quote from: trailer on April 20, 2018, 02:26:37 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on April 20, 2018, 12:26:46 PM
Some years ago Robinson was talking at a DUPUDA annual conference of making the Union more attractive to Catholics.
Then Belfast City Council stopped flying the Butcher's and he jumped back behind the tribal barricade.
The Dupes and Unionist majority Councils seem totally unwilling to take any cognisance of the fact there are 2 Nationalities in the 6 Cos.

I agree. But it will be to their detriment. A happy Nationalist isn't talking about a UI.

Hmmm, yes and no.  I'm the wrong side of 50 and there's been more serious talk about a UI in the last 18 months than in the previous 95 years!  I know a lot of soft and small "n" Nationalists who are very unhappy about Brexit.  They are persuadable, so are the Kellie Armstrong types in Alliance, a lot of Greens and there must be some unknowns who would vote for a UI.  This is going to sound a wee bit callous but if we persuade all those then we don't need that many Unionists to change their minds to make 50%+1 a possibility.  The issue might be, what do we do after that!?

I've said this before but what's needed is a grouping to come forward, along the lines of the business people who sent the letter to Leo recently, who are not directly affiliated to SF to lead a UI campaign.  We also need robust answers to all the questions that will be asked about what a UI will look like.  There's about 5 years work there alone.

Also, I must say I've often been critical of Colum Eastwood but I thought he was very good on The View last night in a "debate", of sorts, with Christopher Stalford and Kellie Armstrong.

Aye, and how is that coming along? What has Leo Lickspittle done so far?

michaelg

Quote from: BennyCake on April 20, 2018, 04:43:07 PM
Quote from: trailer on April 20, 2018, 02:26:37 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on April 20, 2018, 12:26:46 PM
Some years ago Robinson was talking at a DUPUDA annual conference of making the Union more attractive to Catholics.
Then Belfast City Council stopped flying the Butcher's and he jumped back behind the tribal barricade.
The Dupes and Unionist majority Councils seem totally unwilling to take any cognisance of the fact there are 2 Nationalities in the 6 Cos.

I agree. But it will be to their detriment. A happy Nationalist isn't talking about a UI.

Exactly. Especially now with reduced unionist majority/Brexit etc, unionism should be bending over backwards to show nationalists they're better off in The uk. Likewise, for SF.

Instead it's "no surrender" and "tiocfaidh ar la".
Agreed.  Also hard to fathom how the DUP could not see the potential damage to the Union when supporting Brexit, particulary when it was fairly obvious that Scotland was likely to vote remain.  Perhaps, like most people, they felt that the leavers were unlikely to win.