https://www.ft.com/content/0e729df8-cd60-409a-8d72-b49c23b712baThe first minister’s tactics are politically shrewd. They renew momentum around the independence issue, assuaging party activists. They allow Sturgeon to claim the moral high ground, and reassure moderate Scots, by insisting she is committed to a legal referendum, not a “wildcat” poll as held so damagingly by Catalonia. The Sturgeon plan is still a gamble. If granted, a referendum less than 16 months from now would be very risky for her cause. Opposition parties have threatened to boycott it, robbing it of legitimacy. Opinion polling suggests most Scots oppose another independence plebiscite before the end of 2023. Far more likely, however, is that the Supreme Court will rule that Scotland cannot legally hold an independence referendum without UK government approval as it involves constitutional matters that are a Westminster competence. Sturgeon has the savvy to exploit such a ruling to feed a sense among Scots of being locked in a marriage with a heedless partner that is on a divergent path.
That feeling was crystallised by the 2016 Brexit vote, which pulled Scotland out of the EU against its majority will — and is the SNP’s central argument for a new vote on sovereignty. The UK government is right to emphasise that Scotland’s 2014 referendum was billed as a once in a generation event, and a repeat would be a divisive distraction from more urgent problems. Using the 2024 general election as a de facto independence poll, as Sturgeon says she will if a referendum is blocked, has no validity. But obstructionism is not a sustainable strategy. A proactive approach is needed instead. One strand should be to defuse claims that Scotland is in any way “trapped” by setting out basic rules for how it could leave the UK — the triggers and terms for any future referendum — providing at least a measure of clarity as, for example, in Northern Ireland. The government needs, meanwhile, to win the arguments for maintaining the union, to weaken support for a referendum, and ensure a “no” to independence if one is ever held. That means challenging the SNP on the pitfalls of going it alone. Scotland still relies on a hefty fiscal transfer from the UK and, were it to remain in the EU, would now have to create a hard border with its biggest trading partner, England. Above all, ministers should be seen to govern, in style and substance, for the good of the whole UK, not just England — or Tory-backing English regions. They should launch reforms to give Scots a greater voice at Westminster, such as converting the House of Lords into an elected senate of nations and regions. Much of what the Johnson administration has done to date, however, runs in the opposite direction, from driving through the hardest possible Brexit to a governing style that relies on “wedge” issues to retain power. The 315-year-old union needs reform, but is worth fighting politically to preserve. This UK government has yet to show it has the will, or the ability, to wage that fight effectively.
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