Scottish independence referendum thread

[seafoid]

If there had been an Irish independence referendum in 1912, the Unionist side would have won. Irish Independent readers would have voted no.
What shifts public opinion is a huge event such as the executions after the rising or an economic crash. These change the way people think about stability.
Scotland will leave the UK but not in 2023.

[seafoid]

I'd be fairly certain of one thing - if there was a Scottish independence referendum next year and it failed to pass with a nominal majority, then that issue will be dead for many years to come.

For evidence, just look at Quebec - two independence referendums in 1980 & 1995, both failed to pass  (roughly 60/40 in 1980 and 50.5/49.5 in 1995 on a record voter turnout) and since then there's not been any popular sentiment of Quebecois independence anything close to 1995, with the current provincial government more interested in potentially more autonomy within a federal Canada.

AFAIK the Canadian Federal Government looked into the reasons behind the separatist vote and addressed the issue in various ways including Financial.
The UK regions have been ignored for 40 years. This is why Brexit happened. It's part of the reason why the North is poorer than Cavan, Leitrim and Sligo on an average disposable income basis.

[seafoid]

AFAIK the Canadian Federal Government looked into the reasons behind the separatist vote and addressed the issue in various ways including Financial.
The UK regions have been ignored for 40 years. This is why Brexit happened. It's part of the reason why the North is poorer than Cavan, Leitrim and Sligo on an average disposable income basis.

Source?

https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/caj6e7/disposable_income_in_ireland/

[seafoid]

https://www.ft.com/content/0e729df8-cd60-409a-8d72-b49c23b712ba

The first minister's tactics are politically shrewd. They renew momentum around the independence issue, assuaging party activists. They allow Sturgeon to claim the moral high ground, and reassure moderate Scots, by insisting she is committed to a legal referendum, not a "wildcat" poll as held so damagingly by Catalonia. The Sturgeon plan is still a gamble. If granted, a referendum less than 16 months from now would be very risky for her cause. Opposition parties have threatened to boycott it, robbing it of legitimacy. Opinion polling suggests most Scots oppose another independence plebiscite before the end of 2023. Far more likely, however, is that the Supreme Court will rule that Scotland cannot legally hold an independence referendum without UK government approval as it involves constitutional matters that are a Westminster competence. Sturgeon has the savvy to exploit such a ruling to feed a sense among Scots of being locked in a marriage with a heedless partner that is on a divergent path.

That feeling was crystallised by the 2016 Brexit vote, which pulled Scotland out of the EU against its majority will — and is the SNP's central argument for a new vote on sovereignty. The UK government is right to emphasise that Scotland's 2014 referendum was billed as a once in a generation event, and a repeat would be a divisive distraction from more urgent problems. Using the 2024 general election as a de facto independence poll, as Sturgeon says she will if a referendum is blocked, has no validity. But obstructionism is not a sustainable strategy. A proactive approach is needed instead. One strand should be to defuse claims that Scotland is in any way "trapped" by setting out basic rules for how it could leave the UK — the triggers and terms for any future referendum — providing at least a measure of clarity as, for example, in Northern Ireland. The government needs, meanwhile, to win the arguments for maintaining the union, to weaken support for a referendum, and ensure a "no" to independence if one is ever held. That means challenging the SNP on the pitfalls of going it alone. Scotland still relies on a hefty fiscal transfer from the UK and, were it to remain in the EU, would now have to create a hard border with its biggest trading partner, England. Above all, ministers should be seen to govern, in style and substance, for the good of the whole UK, not just England — or Tory-backing English regions. They should launch reforms to give Scots a greater voice at Westminster, such as converting the House of Lords into an elected senate of nations and regions. Much of what the Johnson administration has done to date, however, runs in the opposite direction, from driving through the hardest possible Brexit to a governing style that relies on "wedge" issues to retain power. The 315-year-old union needs reform, but is worth fighting politically to preserve. This UK government has yet to show it has the will, or the ability, to wage that fight effectively.

[seafoid]

AFAIK the Canadian Federal Government looked into the reasons behind the separatist vote and addressed the issue in various ways including Financial.
The UK regions have been ignored for 40 years. This is why Brexit happened. It's part of the reason why the North is poorer than Cavan, Leitrim and Sligo on an average disposable income basis.

Source?

https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/caj6e7/disposable_income_in_ireland/

Thank you. Though looking at that map two things stick out - (a) Donegal's fecked, and (b) outside of The Pale and the Cork - Limerick - Waterford triangle, most of NI compares OK with the rest of the Republic. Haven't a source on hand ATM (I'll try looking for one) but I've read that despite its general economic state d'north actually compares well to many parts of GB when it comes to household disposable income.

Saw a chart in the FT recently quoting Gross National Income for the Republic by Fitzgerald and Morgenroth plus The economic development of Ireland by Giblin and McHugh
NI economic performance exceeded RoI during 2 periods. 1938-50, 1980-90. RoI exceeded NI for the rest of the century

[armaghniac]

AFAIK the Canadian Federal Government looked into the reasons behind the separatist vote and addressed the issue in various ways including Financial.
The UK regions have been ignored for 40 years. This is why Brexit happened. It's part of the reason why the North is poorer than Cavan, Leitrim and Sligo on an average disposable income basis.

Source?

https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/caj6e7/disposable_income_in_ireland/

Thank you. Though looking at that map two things stick out - (a) Donegal's fecked, and (b) outside of The Pale and the Cork - Limerick - Waterford triangle, most of NI compares OK with the rest of the Republic. Haven't a source on hand ATM (I'll try looking for one) but I've read that despite its general economic state d'north actually compares well to many parts of GB when it comes to household disposable income.

NI, on the East Coast, should be like Cork at least.
This data is 2015, the gap has continued to open since that time.

[seafoid]

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/which-has-a-higher-standard-of-living-northern-ireland-or-the-republic-1.4540629
The Bergin-McGuinness study found that poverty rates were considerably higher in Northern Ireland. Based on a poverty line of below 60 per cent of average household income, 15.9 per cent of individuals in the Republic were found to be at risk of relative poverty compared to 23.8 per cent in Northern Ireland.

https://www.ft.com/content/82da479e-9b13-409e-9015-3a1bdb4e408e
Public spending in Northern Ireland is 20 per cent higher than the UK average, while public revenues are 16 per cent lower.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/which-has-a-higher-standard-of-living-northern-ireland-or-the-republic-1.4540629

Perhaps one of the most striking differences was in the area of life expectancy. From 2005 onwards, life expectancy in the Republic has exceeded that in the North to the extent that a child born in 2018 is expected to live 1.4 years longer than its Northern counterpart. Even a person aged 65 in the Republic can expect to live a half a year longer than 65-year-olds in the North.
The original FitzGerald-Morgenroth study, from which Gudgin derives his 20 per cent claim, was primarily focused on the North's productivity, a key driver of wage growth.
It found that productivity per head in the North had deteriorated relative to the rest of the UK in recent decades and even since the 1998 Belfast Agreement. Many commentators attribute the North's low productivity to the Troubles, but its productivity had been waning prior to that period. That's why it has become reliant on subvention from London.

Both Scotland and the North are getting left behind in the UK

[keep her low this half]

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/which-has-a-higher-standard-of-living-northern-ireland-or-the-republic-1.4540629
The Bergin-McGuinness study found that poverty rates were considerably higher in Northern Ireland. Based on a poverty line of below 60 per cent of average household income, 15.9 per cent of individuals in the Republic were found to be at risk of relative poverty compared to 23.8 per cent in Northern Ireland.

https://www.ft.com/content/82da479e-9b13-409e-9015-3a1bdb4e408e
Public spending in Northern Ireland is 20 per cent higher than the UK average, while public revenues are 16 per cent lower.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/which-has-a-higher-standard-of-living-northern-ireland-or-the-republic-1.4540629

Perhaps one of the most striking differences was in the area of life expectancy. From 2005 onwards, life expectancy in the Republic has exceeded that in the North to the extent that a child born in 2018 is expected to live 1.4 years longer than its Northern counterpart. Even a person aged 65 in the Republic can expect to live a half a year longer than 65-year-olds in the North.
The original FitzGerald-Morgenroth study, from which Gudgin derives his 20 per cent claim, was primarily focused on the North's productivity, a key driver of wage growth.
It found that productivity per head in the North had deteriorated relative to the rest of the UK in recent decades and even since the 1998 Belfast Agreement. Many commentators attribute the North's low productivity to the Troubles, but its productivity had been waning prior to that period. That's why it has become reliant on subvention from London.

Both Scotland and the North are getting left behind in the UK

That life expectancy figure is absolutely shocking. We are literally paying with our lives for an unwanted border.

[bennydorano]

The Queen dying on Scottish soil will be some boost for the Unionist cause. If Nicola went asking about another Referendum now she'd get one no bother - because she'd lose.

[Rossfan]

They propose having one in October 2023.
No doubt Truss and Co will have helped the Independence cause by then.

[Farrandeelin]

The Queen dying on Scottish soil will be some boost for the Unionist cause. If Nicola went asking about another Referendum now she'd get one no bother - because she'd lose.

Saw something on twitter about this also. Scottish Tories will hang on to this until October 2023.

[seafoid]

There might be a Unionist bounce but Scots hate Brexit and don't  like inflation and both of these are much bigger than Liz Windsor dying in Scotland

[Dougal Maguire]

The coronation next year will also be a boost for unionists across the UK. I would expect the Tories to call an election a short time after it to capitalise on the nationalistic feel good factor that it will create

[ned]

The Queen dying on Scottish soil will be some boost for the Unionist cause. If Nicola went asking about another Referendum now she'd get one no bother - because she'd lose.

It won't make a difference longer term, in fact probably the opposite. Chuck has nowhere near the same hold on people. The union will die with Brenda.

[weareros]

Does it even matter. Scots are retaining monarchy anyway if they vote  independence. They are a different breed to Irish nationalists. Terrified of their own shadow, afraid to make it on their own.