A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[LCohen]

We are heading full steam for a de facto Economic United Ireland from 1 January.  I don't think the penny has dropped how severe the Irish Sea Border will be.  Customs and much more will make NI a big turn off for GB business which normally only does a small percentage of its overall trading into NI.  It just won't be worth the hassle from January.

That (if it's true) relies on there being a deal.

But you are correct on the problems the Irish Sea customs will create and they fact that a lot of people have not yet woken up to them.

Conversely I disagree with you on the business impact. Big business should have little difficulty. The impact on smaller businesses could be crippling though

It actually doesn't rely on there being a deal.  The Ireland Protocol is a legal agreement already in place and stands whether there is a free trade agreement or not.  An FTA would help for example take tariffs out of the equation, but everything else still stands no matter what.

If there is no deal then the Single Market Bill is primed to blow a hole in the protocol. It's not through Parliament yet so there is a couple of hurdles to go yet including the inevitable legal challenge. But I certainly wouldn't say the Irish Protocol stands no matter what

Yes that's all true, the British Government could opt for chaos. To what end I don't know other than pleasing their hardliners.

The end is a better deal down the line.

Their flawless logic works something like this.

UK threaten do a deal or we will kill ourselves.
To prove we are serious we will cut of one of our fingers.
EU will take this very seriously, panic and roll over.
Uk get a world beating, moonshot, worldy deal that even Trump has to admit is better than anything he could ever of dreamed of negotiating.
EU get to eat fish

[Rossfan]

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/voting-on-irish-unity-without-follow-up-plan-poses-grave-risks-study-1.4420599?mode=amp

[Main Street]

George Osbourne the Conservative ex MP now chief editor of the London Standard claims that   Ni is heading toward a united ireland and the English wont care one jot.

He said that by "unleashing" English nationalism, Brexit has made the future of the UK the central political issue of the coming decade.
Northern Ireland is "heading for the exit door" from the UK
The Northern Ireland Protocol means the country follows the EU's rules on matters like animal product standards.
"By remaining in the EU single market, it is for all economic intents and purposes now slowly becoming part of a united Ireland," wrote Mr Osborne.
"Its prosperity now depends on its relationship with Dublin (and Brussels), not London. The politics will follow.
"Northern Irish unionists always feared the mainland was not sufficiently committed to their cause.
"Now their short-sighted support for Brexit (and unbelievably stupid decision to torpedo Theresa May's deal that avoided separate Irish arrangements) has made those fears a reality.

"It pains me to report that most here and abroad will not care."

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/english-will-not-care-if-northern-ireland-leaves-uk-for-united-ireland-says-former-chancellor-39988161.html

[restorepride]

A united island first.

[RedHand88]

A united island first.

What does this actually mean?

[restorepride]

A united island first.

What does this actually mean?

Trying to develop a mindset where the population of an island sees the benefits of that eg a all-island approach to Covid would have had much more effect, imo.  The economic future after Brexit points towards an 'all-island' solution and the term may be more palatable or less threating to some sections of the community.  Just a thought to try and shape thinking.

[RedHand88]

🚨POLL🚨

@LucidTalk (Northern Ireland)

Support for a United Ireland:

No: 53%
Yes: 47%

(Excludes DK's at 11%)

Sample - 2,392
January 15-18th, 2021



Its getting closer...

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

🚨POLL🚨

@LucidTalk (Northern Ireland)

Support for a United Ireland:

No: 53%
Yes: 47%

(Excludes DK's at 11%)

Sample - 2,392
January 15-18th, 2021



Its getting closer...

Be interesting to see poll results south of the border

[RedHand88]

🚨POLL🚨

@LucidTalk (Northern Ireland)

Support for a United Ireland:

No: 53%
Yes: 47%

(Excludes DK's at 11%)

Sample - 2,392
January 15-18th, 2021



Its getting closer...

Be interesting to see poll results south of the border

They'd comfortably be in the 60s.

[ardtole]

🚨POLL🚨

@LucidTalk (Northern Ireland)

Support for a United Ireland:

No: 53%
Yes: 47%

(Excludes DK's at 11%)

Sample - 2,392
January 15-18th, 2021



Its getting closer...

Be interesting to see poll results south of the border

They'd comfortably be in the 60s.

Unfortunately, I wouldnt be as optimistic.

[red hander]

A united island first.

50+1 is all it needs. A unionist vote is not more important than a nationalist vote. They are equal. Those days are over. 50+1.

[bennydorano]

Data from a Lucid poll in January 2020.

46.8% remain in UK
45.4% for a UI
7.8% Don't knows

[marty34]

🚨POLL🚨

@LucidTalk (Northern Ireland)

Support for a United Ireland:

No: 53%
Yes: 47%

(Excludes DK's at 11%)

Sample - 2,392
January 15-18th, 2021



Its getting closer...

Anybody hazzard a guess when a border poll will take place?

10, 20 or 30 years?

We'll need another year or two to see the outworkings or Brexit.

As an aside, I wonder will there be a census this year - are they not usually every 10 years.  If so, the results of that will be interesting.

Although in fairness, there'll be a lot of lads on here ticking the...mmmm...northern irish box.

[Tubberman]

Westminster won't grant a border poll until there's a sequence of opinion polls showing a majority in favour of a UI I'd say.

[Milltown Row2]

🚨POLL🚨

@LucidTalk (Northern Ireland)

Support for a United Ireland:

No: 53%
Yes: 47%

(Excludes DK's at 11%)

Sample - 2,392
January 15-18th, 2021



Its getting closer...

Anybody hazzard a guess when a border poll will take place?

10, 20 or 30 years?

We'll need another year or two to see the outworkings or Brexit.

As an aside, I wonder will there be a census this year - are they not usually every 10 years.  If so, the results of that will be interesting.

Although in fairness, there'll be a lot of lads on here ticking the...mmmm...northern irish box.

Well when your southern Irish lads turned their back on ya......

🥤