A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[LCohen]

The link between a United Ireland and brexit needs to be explained. Presumably everyone accepts that there are segments of the NI electorate that are firmly in the UI or UK camps and will not be swayed by rational economic arguments. I do not doubt that brexit will be harmful to the NI economy. But for it to play a part in convincing the floating voter to switch from UK to UI then someone is going to have to make the argument that leaving a free trading area that you export £14 Bn to to rejoin a trading area that you export half as much to isn't going to harm the NI economy. Good luck to them. And that's before we get into the subvention

standard of living will be the deciding factor

Hard to see how that is going to point towards a UI vote

Wait until the doom loop of Brexit, Sterling,  the UK trade deficit, budget deficit and productivity hits.
The UK economy is running on fumes.

UK economy has real problems. Serious structural ones that predate but are not helped by the decision to leave the EU. NI in the grand scheme of things is an irritant to the treasury. But not one that keeps them awake at night. The problems ROI has are again many fold but not least one of scale. When tackling a problem like NI an economy like ROI would sink without trace

[Rossfan]

And when does "NI" start trying to improve their own economy?
Or do ye all prefer to be basket cases?

[Owen Brannigan]

Export Statistics for N.Ireland

Total sales by companies in Northern Ireland (NI) were estimated to be worth £66.7 billion in 2015

Sales within NI - £43.7 billion
.
Sales to Great Britain (GB) - £13.8 billion.

External sales (sales to markets outside NI) - £23.0 billion (34.4% of total sales).

Exports (sales outside the UK) - £9.1 billion.

Exports to the Republic of Ireland (RoI) - £3.4 billion.

Exports to the Rest of the EU (RoEU, excluding RoI) - £1.9 billion. 

Exports to the Rest of the World (RoW) - £3.8 billion.

[Owen Brannigan]

And when does "NI" start trying to improve their own economy?
Or do ye all prefer to be basket cases?

This is how much N.I. a basket case.

Gross Disposable Household Income estimate for Northern Ireland for 2014 was £26,953 million or £14,645 per head of population 

N. Ireland GDHI per head of population is 81.5 per cent of the corresponding UK figure and the lowest of the UK regions

N. Ireland's total GDHI grew by 0.2 per cent compared 1.3 per cent for the UK as a whole

[LCohen]

Export Statistics for N.Ireland

Total sales by companies in Northern Ireland (NI) were estimated to be worth £66.7 billion in 2015

Sales within NI - £43.7 billion
.
Sales to Great Britain (GB) - £13.8 billion.

External sales (sales to markets outside NI) - £23.0 billion (34.4% of total sales).

Exports (sales outside the UK) - £9.1 billion.

Exports to the Republic of Ireland (RoI) - £3.4 billion.

Exports to the Rest of the EU (RoEU, excluding RoI) - £1.9 billion. 

Exports to the Rest of the World (RoW) - £3.8 billion.

Getting harder again for Armaghniac. Exports to EU Only 38% of the GB value

[LCohen]

And when does "NI" start trying to improve their own economy?
Or do ye all prefer to be basket cases?

It's started. Just making a shit job of it. Stupid short sighted electorate electing stupid short sighted politicians. We will be someone's expensive date for a long time. Will the good people of Roscommon step up?

I should warn you. The numbers are rubbish

[Owen Brannigan]

Export Statistics for N.Ireland

Total sales by companies in Northern Ireland (NI) were estimated to be worth £66.7 billion in 2015

Sales within NI - £43.7 billion
.
Sales to Great Britain (GB) - £13.8 billion.

External sales (sales to markets outside NI) - £23.0 billion (34.4% of total sales).

Exports (sales outside the UK) - £9.1 billion.

Exports to the Republic of Ireland (RoI) - £3.4 billion.

Exports to the Rest of the EU (RoEU, excluding RoI) - £1.9 billion. 

Exports to the Rest of the World (RoW) - £3.8 billion.

Getting harder again for Armaghniac. Exports to EU Only 38% of the GB value

This why N.I. is a basket case, it does not produce enough to create true wealth.  Look at how much circulates within the country - 66% of all product and services provided by companies.  Add this to almost 70% employment in the public sector and you have a region that cannot support itself and requires major intervention to exist under its current standards of living.

[armaghniac]

Export Statistics for N.Ireland

Total sales by companies in Northern Ireland (NI) were estimated to be worth £66.7 billion in 2015

Sales within NI - £43.7 billion
.
Sales to Great Britain (GB) - £13.8 billion.

External sales (sales to markets outside NI) - £23.0 billion (34.4% of total sales).

Exports (sales outside the UK) - £9.1 billion.

Exports to the Republic of Ireland (RoI) - £3.4 billion.

Exports to the Rest of the EU (RoEU, excluding RoI) - £1.9 billion. 

Exports to the Rest of the World (RoW) - £3.8 billion.

Getting harder again for Armaghniac. Exports to EU Only 38% of the GB value

My point is two fold. The composition of trade may be different, some types of trade, some products,  may be very much affected, some little at all. But the issue is the political future of NI, if May/Arlene succeed in blighting border areas and increasing the subsidy then NI will be a very unstable place as the GFA will have been shredded.
But nobody wants a hard Brexit and then a UI poll, we want as little change as possible and a continuation of the systems introduced in 1998.

[LCohen]

Export Statistics for N.Ireland

Total sales by companies in Northern Ireland (NI) were estimated to be worth £66.7 billion in 2015

Sales within NI - £43.7 billion
.
Sales to Great Britain (GB) - £13.8 billion.

External sales (sales to markets outside NI) - £23.0 billion (34.4% of total sales).

Exports (sales outside the UK) - £9.1 billion.

Exports to the Republic of Ireland (RoI) - £3.4 billion.

Exports to the Rest of the EU (RoEU, excluding RoI) - £1.9 billion. 

Exports to the Rest of the World (RoW) - £3.8 billion.

Getting harder again for Armaghniac. Exports to EU Only 38% of the GB value

My point is two fold. The composition of trade may be different, some types of trade, some products,  may be very much affected, some little at all. But the issue is the political future of NI, if May/Arlene succeed in blighting border areas and increasing the subsidy then NI will be a very unstable place as the GFA will have been shredded.
But nobody wants a hard Brexit and then a UI poll, we want as little change as possible and a continuation of the systems introduced in 1998.

Your first point seems to be that there may, if certain things were true, be the whiff of a hint of rumour of a whisper of a prospect of the potentiality of an argument that might in certain circumstances be suggestive of a point. I'll come back to you when you firm that one up a bit.

Your second point seems a bit sensationalist. Who is shredding the GFA?

[Olly]

See if there's a United Ireland? What will we vote for after that? If Ireland is free are the Wolfe Tones banjaxed?

[Rossfan]

And when does "NI" start trying to improve their own economy?
Or do ye all prefer to be basket cases?

It's started. Just making a shit job of it. Stupid short sighted electorate electing stupid short sighted politicians. We will be someone's expensive date for a long time. Will the good people of Roscommon step up?

We'd be fair oul basket cases ourselves.
But th'oul cheques from Brussels keep the farmers spending a few €s so we won't sink anyway.
I can't see a Tory Brexited GB or EnglandWales doing much for 6 Cos farmers.
Maybe we can put ye up as Refugees in Ballaghaderreen 

[armaghniac]

Your first point seems to be that there may, if certain things were true, be the whiff of a hint of rumour of a whisper of a prospect of the potentiality of an argument that might in certain circumstances be suggestive of a point. I'll come back to you when you firm that one up a bit.

I do not have detailed data on NI trade. Presumably those who support Brexit do, for instance what is the import content of that trade?

Your second point seems a bit sensationalist. Who is shredding the GFA?

If the British government wreck relations between both parts of Ireland without the agreement of either part, then that is shredding the GFA and indeed is a complete a negation of supposed Anglo-Irish cooperation for the last 32 years. No description of such a complete reversal of the mechanisms that have brought peace could be characterised by any reasonable person as sensational.

[seafoid]

Export Statistics for N.Ireland

Total sales by companies in Northern Ireland (NI) were estimated to be worth £66.7 billion in 2015

Sales within NI - £43.7 billion
.
Sales to Great Britain (GB) - £13.8 billion.

External sales (sales to markets outside NI) - £23.0 billion (34.4% of total sales).

Exports (sales outside the UK) - £9.1 billion.

Exports to the Republic of Ireland (RoI) - £3.4 billion.

Exports to the Rest of the EU (RoEU, excluding RoI) - £1.9 billion. 

Exports to the Rest of the World (RoW) - £3.8 billion.

Getting harder again for Armaghniac. Exports to EU Only 38% of the GB value

My point is two fold. The composition of trade may be different, some types of trade, some products,  may be very much affected, some little at all. But the issue is the political future of NI, if May/Arlene succeed in blighting border areas and increasing the subsidy then NI will be a very unstable place as the GFA will have been shredded.
But nobody wants a hard Brexit and then a UI poll, we want as little change as possible and a continuation of the systems introduced in 1998.

It's not about what people want. The UK government is under the control of an ideological rump with no care for the UK economy.  Reason doesn't get a look in. They are prepared to smash political arrangements for the sake of the ideology. John van Renten estimates Brexit will reduce UK GDP by 10%.  NI is particularly vulnerable . And the Queen will not stand up for her loyal subjects.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2zvWbrv-CY

[Syferus]

It comes as no surprise to anyone that Sinn Fein are so tone-deaf and foolish that they'd call for a United Ireland referendum a few months after polls put stay on 62% and leave on 22%, and a week after not even winning more seats than a unionist party headed up by someone who can't write basic legislation correctly.

Embarrassing. It might have had some impact if they'd waited until it was even a remote possibility. To do it when the Assembly is in taters and further sow seeds of sectarianism is selfish in the extreme.

[tiempo]

It comes as no surprise to anyone that Sinn Fein are so tone-deaf and foolish that they'd call for a United Ireland referendum a few months after polls put stay on 62% and leave on 22%, and a week after not even winning more seats than a unionist party headed up by someone who can't write basic legislation correctly.

Embarrassing. It might have had some impact if they'd waited until it was even a remote possibility. To do it when the Assembly is in taters and further sow seeds of sectarianism is selfish in the extreme.

The institutions of a failed gerrymandered sectarian statelet are in tatters, the SF agenda is Irish Unity and they are entitled to call for a border poll any time they like, its not their fault Unionism has spent the best part of a century trying to demonise Catholics and Republicans. Funny how when that status quo changed they become less and less comfortable in their occupied lands. Can you reference the sowing of seeds of sectarianism? Any reference of SF referring to Protestants will do.

All is well in the shires of Roscommon though.