Brexit.

[heganboy]

It will come down to this:

One Trillion British Pounds


Brexit, for the UK and Europe it is the £1.1tn question. That is the amount banks based in the UK are lending to the companies and governments of the EU27, keeping the continent afloat financially.

Hard Brexit and it will be gone like the smoke from a Vatican chimney.

Nobody told the man on the clapham omnibus about that one.

Let's keep an eye on that shall we? Makes the NHS and immigration look like trivial matters. Not so much big fish little pond and more like goldfish in a fairground bag. We may be about to see every economists dream, ceteris paribus and the multiplier effect in real life.

With context, that's half of the UK's GDP. Take a trillion quite off and you ever up between Holland and Indonesia. Hows the bargaining chip looking now?

[seafoid]

It will come down to this:

One Trillion British Pounds


Brexit, for the UK and Europe it is the £1.1tn question. That is the amount banks based in the UK are lending to the companies and governments of the EU27, keeping the continent afloat financially.

Hard Brexit and it will be gone like the smoke from a Vatican chimney.

Nobody told the man on the clapham omnibus about that one.

Let's keep an eye on that shall we? Makes the NHS and immigration look like trivial matters. Not so much big fish little pond and more like goldfish in a fairground bag. We may be about to see every economists dream, ceteris paribus and the multiplier effect in real life.

With context, that's half of the UK's GDP. Take a trillion quite off and you ever up between Holland and Indonesia. Hows the bargaining chip looking now?

The UK cannot  work it out if it goes for a hard Brexit.
QE didn't work. Osborne couldn^t get the deficit to zero
So the UK has an 80 or 100bn deficit to fund abroad
And those people want to know they will get their money back

For nearly 40 years Murdoch has been spewing filth over Europe in the Tory press and with Brexit he got his wish but at the price of the UK economy if it goes through.

Imagine what Brexit will do to RBS

[seafoid]

Osborne and Carney bear a lot of responsibility for Brexit which is  unbelievably damaging to the UK


The UK produced a lot of jobs post 2011 but most were crap. Immigration drives growth via the demand for housing, schools etc. But the UK wasn't growing otherwise. So the more immigration the more pressure  was put on its creaky infrastructure.
By the end of 2014 Osborne admitted defeat. He couldn't get the deficit where he wanted . The payrises he had modelled didn't happen.The Tories decided to run the election on a slogan of "we halved the deficit" . He ended up with a deficit of 80bn or 5% of GDP .
This has to be funded by foreigners.
1 December 2014
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/88227ee6-7729-11e4-8273-00144feabdc0.html
"But, from here, it would be rare for the private sector to shift substantially into financial deficit by increasing its expenditure further relative to income. Growth in private activity will therefore need to come from a rise in income, especially wages, not from falling savings ratios. That will be a more difficult process, especially if fiscal policy is being tightened at the same time. The second phase of the fiscal correction may therefore be even harder to attain than the first. A simultaneous contraction in both fiscal and monetary policy looks problematic: something will surely have to give."
Back in the political arena the spin was relentless. Vote Tory or the economy will be destroyed. The people supported the Tories.

With a Tory majority  Cameron decided to unify the party on the Europe question by holding a referendum on EU membership. He also wanted to sideline UKIP


The people knew the economic story was fake. And they decided to deliver a "f**k off" vote.
Something did give. The UK's access to its biggest export market . The people told it to "f**k off"


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBBni_-tMNs

[bennydorano]

Interesting piece in Sunday Times today - brief summary. EU may have to pull their horns in over single market access / passporting for Financial Services or UK may cut Corporation Tax to 10%.

[No wides]

Interesting piece in Sunday Times today - brief summary. EU may have to pull their horns in over single market access / passporting gor Financial Services or UK may cut Corporation Tax to 10%.

Heard this muted before, i think brexit will mean brexit but I think the UK will get a good deal.

[seafoid]

Interesting piece in Sunday Times today - brief summary. EU may have to pull their horns in over single market access / passporting for Financial Services or UK may cut Corporation Tax to 10%.

Still won't fix the UK economy.

[heganboy]

Corporation tax at 10%.
It is not an enticement on its own.
Brexit and the subsequent currencu decay of GBP vs Euro and USD have introduced significant optionality into revenue streams and tax credits that are currently unmodellable. For the capital markets community in London that risk is factored every time there is an investment cycle. Hardware might be 3 years. Staff might be annually. Business units maybe every 5 years. Premises on 10 year cycles. However extraordinary events are constantly reviewed to assess their impact to the firm. At this point the risk involved in keeping big firms operations in London has been assessed and plans, perhaps contingency, perhaps not, are being drafted for full withdrawal from the City.
10% corporate tax levels would not factor as much into that as the availability of labor and risk to the firm

[muppet]

Corporation tax at 10%.
It is not an enticement on its own.
Brexit and the subsequent currencu decay of GBP vs Euro and USD have introduced significant optionality into revenue streams and tax credits that are currently unmodellable. For the capital markets community in London that risk is factored every time there is an investment cycle. Hardware might be 3 years. Staff might be annually. Business units maybe every 5 years. Premises on 10 year cycles. However extraordinary events are constantly reviewed to assess their impact to the firm. At this point the risk involved in keeping big firms operations in London has been assessed and plans, perhaps contingency, perhaps not, are being drafted for full withdrawal from the City.
10% corporate tax levels would not factor as much into that as the availability of labor and risk to the firm

Write.
A.
Book.

Please.

I will buy it now.

[seafoid]

Corporation tax at 10%.
It is not an enticement on its own.
Brexit and the subsequent currencu decay of GBP vs Euro and USD have introduced significant optionality into revenue streams and tax credits that are currently unmodellable. For the capital markets community in London that risk is factored every time there is an investment cycle. Hardware might be 3 years. Staff might be annually. Business units maybe every 5 years. Premises on 10 year cycles. However extraordinary events are constantly reviewed to assess their impact to the firm. At this point the risk involved in keeping big firms operations in London has been assessed and plans, perhaps contingency, perhaps not, are being drafted for full withdrawal from the City.
10% corporate tax levels would not factor as much into that as the availability of labor and risk to the firm

Political stability is a huge consideration for the big banks.
They need certainty. Sometimes things fall apart.
What is happening to London now is incredible. What Cameron did was nuts. History is a record of consequences which nobody intended to produce. 

[muppet]

[omagh_gael]

So a major free trade deal between the EU and Canada scuppered due to toys being thrown out of the pram in one small Belgian region. This then affects every other EU state. The pro Brexit people will be all over this.

[heganboy]

If the Walloon govt can hold the non member Canadians to ransom, how is it you see Brexit negotiations actually completing?

All Eu negotiations complete and all members approve the deal?

Maybe circa 2030.
At that point with the banks gone and 10% Corp tax, England GDP  will be about the same size as Hong Kong (the irony) Scotland will be independent and remain within EU, Wales will be hosed. The unionists in the wee north will have seen the writing on the wall as the US multinationals and banks move to the only English speaking country in Europe. Donegal and Sligo have by now become service centers for Dublin Cork and Galway with actual economies.
Learning the lesson from last time the Celtic tiger doesn't blow up. Comminity focussed social projects in Belfast are booming, funded by the GAA. The work force in the north want paid in Euro.  EU creates a new United Kingdom of Ireland and Northern Ireland. UKIP votes will all move to Spain and get their costa Del citizenship and wonder why the Spanish don't like them.

[seafoid]

If the Walloon govt can hold the non member Canadians to ransom, how is it you see Brexit negotiations actually completing?

All Eu negotiations complete and all members approve the deal?

Maybe circa 2030.
At that point with the banks gone and 10% Corp tax, England GDP  will be about the same size as Hong Kong (the irony) Scotland will be independent and remain within EU, Wales will be hosed. The unionists in the wee north will have seen the writing on the wall as the US multinationals and banks move to the only English speaking country in Europe. Donegal and Sligo have by now become service centers for Dublin Cork and Galway with actual economies.
Learning the lesson from last time the Celtic tiger doesn't blow up. Comminity focussed social projects in Belfast are booming, funded by the GAA. The work force in the north want paid in Euro.  EU creates a new United Kingdom of Ireland and Northern Ireland. UKIP votes will all move to Spain and get their costa Del citizenship and wonder why the Spanish don't like them.

The Euros may want to shaft the UK and get it out ASAP. Pour encourager les autres. there is no trade Shangri La.
Brexit is so stupid. It is a belief system only vaguely connected to reality

[Milltown Row2]

If the Walloon govt can hold the non member Canadians to ransom, how is it you see Brexit negotiations actually completing?

All Eu negotiations complete and all members approve the deal?

Maybe circa 2030.
At that point with the banks gone and 10% Corp tax, England GDP  will be about the same size as Hong Kong (the irony) Scotland will be independent and remain within EU, Wales will be hosed. The unionists in the wee north will have seen the writing on the wall as the US multinationals and banks move to the only English speaking country in Europe. Donegal and Sligo have by now become service centers for Dublin Cork and Galway with actual economies.
Learning the lesson from last time the Celtic tiger doesn't blow up. Comminity focussed social projects in Belfast are booming, funded by the GAA. The work force in the north want paid in Euro.  EU creates a new United Kingdom of Ireland and Northern Ireland. UKIP votes will all move to Spain and get their costa Del citizenship and wonder why the Spanish don't like them.

The Euros may want to shaft the UK and get it out ASAP. Pour encourager les autres. there is no trade Shangri La.
Brexit is so stupid. It is a belief system only vaguely connected to reality

so let me get this right seafoid, you think that brexit is wrong/stupid? I'm not sure of your views on it ...............

[muppet]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37718376

Brexit negotiators 'in cloud cuckoo land'
20 October 2016 Last updated at 13:02 BST

The man who negotiated the UK's rebate from the EU budget is warning the ministers in charge of Brexit negotiations to stop making unrealistic demands.

Sir Brian Unwin, a former Treasury civil servant and ex-president of the European Investment Bank (EIB), said Brexit Secretary David Davis was "living in cloud cuckoo land" when suggesting the odds in the negotiations were stacked in the UK's favour.