A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[weareros]

Everyone wants a plan from Dublin for a UI but the biggest problem is the North has 225,000 public sector employees and 590,009 private sector while the South has 370,000 public sector and 2.3m private sector. This is not even addressing the high economic inactivity rate in North at 25%. The unemployment rate is however only 2% (a great example of joke statistics).

I've often seen this statistic about extra public sector in NI. But what is unclear is where exactly these people are? Are they teachers, nurses, social workers, police, civil servants? When there is detail then we can understand what to do, all of this discussion in big totals is unhelpful. An actual detailed account of where the extra are would be a good service.

Also, public sector employment in NI will tend to decline over the next few years, there isn't the money. There is now a reasonable availability of private employment in NI, and so the public bill will decline and the income will increase a bit.

I was using NISRA Dec 2023 (copied below) stats but not sure if it goes deeper detail where they all are. I doubt it's in important areas like health and education however. But overall compared to South or GB (where it's 15%) the public sector in North is huge as a percentage versus private.


Public sector jobs decreased over the quarter (-1,710 jobs) but increased over the year (+1,110 jobs) to December 2023, reaching 224,070 jobs.
Private sector jobs decreased over the quarter (-3,630 jobs) but increased over the year (+5,310 jobs) to December 2023, reaching 593,150 jobs.

[trueblue1234]

Everyone wants a plan from Dublin for a UI but the biggest problem is the North has 225,000 public sector employees and 590,009 private sector while the South has 370,000 public sector and 2.3m private sector. This is not even addressing the high economic inactivity rate in North at 25%. The unemployment rate is however only 2% (a great example of joke statistics).

So well over 100,000 public sector employees in North will have to lose jobs and find a job in the private sector. Where? That will have to be in the first paragraph of Dublin's plan but no one wants to read that and there's no political will in North or GB to solve that problem.

On the plus side, the South will have a €100bn sovereign wealth fund by 2035 and the Yanks might throw in a few bob to help a smooth transition.

The economic inactive includes students and retired people. Neither of which should be included. That's the problem with statistics.

[Applesisapples]

I was at an economic conference recently where another researcher working on behalf  of the UU and UCD(I Think) said that the nett cost of a UI according to their research could be as low as £2bn or £8bn if the UK Government didn't play ball on pensions an a settlement fund. Either way he said that the growth in productivity in NI and the benefits to the Southern economy and the economies of scale from combined   services meant that even £8bn was small beer. I suppose these documents will all depend on what you want to prove. In relation to the NI public sector it is much too big but it would not be  a case of sacking a 100,000 people that is just scare mongering. Natural wastage and re-deployment would take care of it.

[seafoid]

The border is artificial and border areas are disadvantaged because of the border. The standout in this regard is Derry/Donegal but all border areas suffer.

If the border had never existed Antrim would definitely have won a football All Ireland and Armagh could even have won 2.

The  North is a neglected region of the UK and needs a lot of investment. There is a lot of low hanging fruit as well as a lot of underutilised talent.

One fixed model is not enough. And the cost probably will come in at a lot lower than €20bn per annum.

[tbrick18]

Everyone wants a plan from Dublin for a UI but the biggest problem is the North has 225,000 public sector employees and 590,009 private sector while the South has 370,000 public sector and 2.3m private sector. This is not even addressing the high economic inactivity rate in North at 25%. The unemployment rate is however only 2% (a great example of joke statistics).

So well over 100,000 public sector employees in North will have to lose jobs and find a job in the private sector. Where? That will have to be in the first paragraph of Dublin's plan but no one wants to read that and there's no political will in North or GB to solve that problem.

On the plus side, the South will have a €100bn sovereign wealth fund by 2035 and the Yanks might throw in a few bob to help a smooth transition.

The economic inactive includes students and retired people. Neither of which should be included. That's the problem with statistics.

So 25% of the population of NI is either retired or a student? Would never have guessed it.
In terms of NI Public sector - I feel its over inflated and there are a sizeable minority who drift through whilst not doing very much. Unions protect those people resulting in a Public Sector which is undermined by the costly under-performing minority.

[Saffrongael]

Everyone wants a plan from Dublin for a UI but the biggest problem is the North has 225,000 public sector employees and 590,009 private sector while the South has 370,000 public sector and 2.3m private sector. This is not even addressing the high economic inactivity rate in North at 25%. The unemployment rate is however only 2% (a great example of joke statistics).

So well over 100,000 public sector employees in North will have to lose jobs and find a job in the private sector. Where? That will have to be in the first paragraph of Dublin's plan but no one wants to read that and there's no political will in North or GB to solve that problem.

On the plus side, the South will have a €100bn sovereign wealth fund by 2035 and the Yanks might throw in a few bob to help a smooth transition.

The economic inactive includes students and retired people. Neither of which should be included. That's the problem with statistics.

Excluding students, in Belfast for example, the rate is 25% economically inactive. We shouldn't kid ourselves - NI does not fare well in this measurement

There has been a very recent study on economic inactivity conducted by UU.

https://www.ulster.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/1594576/Economic-Inactivity-FINAL.pdf

 

[Rossfan]

Are many of those Public jobs part of the British set up e.g soldiers etc??
Anyone ever get a handle on how much Revenue the British exchequer collects in the North?

[seafoid]

Figure 1.1 here shows how the border has affected the relevant counties economically.

The border counties are poorer than the West (the West does not mean Fermanagh btw)
So Cromwell was wrong. To hell or to the border.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cirgdp/countyincomesandregionalgdp2020/disposableincomebycounty/

[clonadmad]

Having read through the 11 pages of the actual report,it would be handed back to an Economics Undergraduate and He/She would be told to consider another career route

The Authors base their case for starters on an assumption that they know the amount of UK subvention into NI every Year,which is news to anyone versed in these matters as the UK government has never stated an exact total or given an exact breakdown

They then assume that a UI would need to match the current NI contribution to a UK defence Budget,(no thanks Lads,We wont be paying for Trident or Aircraft Carriers)or continue to pay a pro rata portion of UK Debt AFTER NI had left the UK or that the UK would reneage on pension contributions by NI workers paid into the UK pension pot when NI was part of the Uk.

Those 3 areas alone come to anywhere between £5 and £7 bn per annum.

it also assumes that growth rates and productivity are stuck to the floor over the next 20 years, takes no account of the savings or synergy brought about by an All Island Economy and takes no account of inputs from the likes of the EU or FDI going into the 6 counties at 26 counties levels.

[Applesisapples]

Having read through the 11 pages of the actual report,it would be handed back to an Economics Undergraduate and He/She would be told to consider another career route

The Authors base their case for starters on an assumption that they know the amount of UK subvention into NI every Year,which is news to anyone versed in these matters as the UK government has never stated an exact total or given an exact breakdown

They then assume that a UI would need to match the current NI contribution to a UK defence Budget,(no thanks Lads,We wont be paying for Trident or Aircraft Carriers)or continue to pay a pro rata portion of UK Debt AFTER NI had left the UK or that the UK would reneage on pension contributions by NI workers paid into the UK pension pot when NI was part of the Uk.

Those 3 areas alone come to anywhere between £5 and £7 bn per annum.

it also assumes that growth rates and productivity are stuck to the floor over the next 20 years, takes no account of the savings or synergy brought about by an All Island Economy and takes no account of inputs from the likes of the EU or FDI going into the 6 counties at 26 counties levels.

Kevin Meagher has said much the same, I think he called it a nonsense.

[weareros]

John Doyle from DCU did a full study on that - showed that Irish gov would only incur about £2-3bn of the UK subvention cost when you extract the security/defence costs, NI's contribution to UK national debt and pensions.

[dec]

NI's contribution to UK national debt and pensions

A united Ireland would still be liable for part of the UK debt and pensions. As NI is currently part of the UK it would inherit a pro rata amount of debt, pensions, liabilities. The future UK -NI would still be on the hook for pension rights accrued by people in NI prior to reunification.

Of course these various liabilities could be swapped as part of reunification negotiations.

[armaghniac]

NI's contribution to UK national debt and pensions

A united Ireland would still be liable for part of the UK debt and pensions. As NI is currently part of the UK it would inherit a pro rata amount of debt, pensions, liabilities. The future UK -NI would still be on the hook for pension rights accrued by people in NI prior to reunification.

Of course these various liabilities could be swapped as part of reunification negotiations.

Easy to say but what is pro rata? For instance, for debt is is according to the proportion of the population, according to the proportion of the GDP, according to proportion of tax raised? Presently, NI contributes nothing to the ability to fund debt as it does not cover other expenditure.
Pensions come in public sector pensions for central government functions, for devolved functions, for local authorities. People's pensions include contributory and welfare pensions. It is quite complex. 

[Applesisapples]

John Doyle from DCU did a full study on that - showed that Irish gov would only incur about £2-3bn of the UK subvention cost when you extract the security/defence costs, NI's contribution to UK national debt and pensions.

It was John Doyle who presented at the conference I attended. He said their work is ongoing. The  biggest challenge will be upping productivity in the North which is between 40 and 60% behind the South.

[Applesisapples]

The bottom line is the government in the South needs to start working toward unity so as not to repeat Brexshit. This will inevitably London, though that will be sensitive.