6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

Started by Snapchap, February 23, 2022, 10:18:43 AM

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Armagh18

Seen a graph there SF got 44% of the first pref vote and dup got 20? Would that be accurate? Madness

square_ball


clarshack

Quote from: marty34 on May 22, 2023, 03:01:29 PM
Ironic thing is that SF left a few seats behind them by not standing 2 candiates or another candiate in areas.  Plus SF transfers got the SDLP over the line in certain areas.

Funny the unionist parties are complaining about too many unionist parties but on the nationalist side, there's SF, SDLP, AontĂș and PBP etc. so just as many on the nationalist side.

Will that be the end of AontĂș? Can't see them getting much traction in the south in the next election.  They, like the TUV, seem a one man show i.e. Toibin.

Glad to see Billy Hutchison not making it. Great news.

Unionism vote is getting smaller and smaller in every election. The amount of green in some of the maps re: council elections is unreal. Plus with Belfast now a green city, demographics are moving very quickly.

Love to see Danny Kennedy spouting pure waffle about Newry and Armagh. What a complete clown.

I'd say they will probably be gone after the next election in the south. I was very surprised though that the lad Doyle lost his seat in Derry as he seemed to do a lot of work on the ground by all accounts.

johnnycool

Ards and ND have gotten rid of their TUV councillor Alliance gain 2, so must have been the TUV lad and a Green who lost out, but the strangest thing is that the SDLP vote, Wee Noel and the shinners vote share went up, 0.5 for the SDLP and 1.2 for the Shinners..
TUV vote share also went up but failed to get their bigot over the line, so not transfer friendly evidently.

I'd be interested in knowing were these extra votes came from, is there information out there as to what wards this could have happened?

LC

Meanwhile in the real world:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-65671975

The silence of local politicians is deafening......

brokencrossbar1

I think a likely scenario is this. There will be some eventual level of appeasement to allow Stormont to re-establish itself. We will see out this parliament and then there will be a GE next year at some point and that might be very telling in terms of overall 'green' votes. As things stand there's a slight green advantage given that Farry is non aligned with Alliance. 1 more MP for SF or SDLP would be massive. Hard but not impossible.

We will then have a Stormont election and if the current trend continues then you can only see things moving 1 way. Then there will be a council election in 2027,  with likely similar trajectory to the current one. In between times there will also be an ROI GE. Hard to know what might happen in it as project fear is in full blow but you'd still expect SF to top the polls.

So by 2027 you are likely to have a green dominance, or at least equivalence in the Commons, Stormont, local councils and Dublin. We then have census in 2030/31. This could be seismic. If the current trajectory continues I would suspect a clear majority identifying as nationalist/republican. Will it be enough to trigger a poll,  who knows but if it continues as things have done I would suspect we will have moves within 10 years for the poll. Any earlier would be too early but keep the conversation happening about how to plan for it.

Tony Baloney

Quote from: LC on May 22, 2023, 06:06:07 PM
Meanwhile in the real world:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-65671975

The silence of local politicians is deafening......
At least someone is saying it. The public sector is always disconnected from how they are funded.

Milltown Row2

The titanic wars in east Belfast was the lowest turn out, they'd people asking locals why you ain't voting, usual, lazy can't be bother nothing changes. One lady did say she always vote, she votes every year  ;D... surprised the interviewer didn't ask where she votes every year.

The vote is so good because the prods will only vote when it matters. Stick a poll vote up and they'll be coming out of the nursing homes in their droves
None of us are getting out of here alive, so please stop treating yourself like an after thought. Ea

DhoireTheas

#1658
You would think nurses didn't know that is was a famously underpaid profession when they signed up to be one. They are all the same with their loud mouth personalities when I was in hospital. Actually the thought of having to be around nurses makes me want to live a healthy lifestyle to avoid hospitals.

marty34

Quote from: DhoireTheas on May 22, 2023, 10:16:54 PM
You would think nurses didn't know that is was a famously underpaid profession when they signed up to be one. They are all the same with their loud mouth personalities when I was in hospital. Actually the thought of having to be around nurses makes me want to live a healthy lifestyle to avoid hospitals.

That's one way of staying healthy!

JPGJOHNNYG

Peter shirow on view from stormont showing us all the Unionist view point. Now nationalism goes into a lead the goal posts are changed. Basically there will never be a border poll because nationalism will never reach 50.1 % because of the Alliance party. This is the big problem for the Alliance party because all the cranks will now come up with this thinking. No border poll unless nationalism hits the magic 50.1%. it doesn't matter if they are on 49% and Unionism on 30% it won't be enough as all alliance voters are not nationalist so therefore defacto unionist (this from a supposed academic :o). How very democratic lol. All the cranks on Nolan one moment calling Alliance SF cheerleaders but then in the same sentence saying Alliance only do well in good unionist areas so must be all Unionists ffs. Nolan happy not to challenge any of it, no chance of mentioning the overwhelming majority of alliance transfers to nationalist parties. Peter Shirliow is a major problem because his rubbish polls and surveys he produces seem to carry more clout with the government than actual election results. You couldn't make it up. Nationalism needs to be prepared for all the desperate nonsense that will spouted and used to block Amy movement towards a referendum

The DUP moaning about  the 3 unionist parties causing vote shredding and affecting the results is also bizarre.  Unionism actually did BETTER than Nationalism in the election in terms of seats from votes. None of the pundits though seen to point any of this out. It's crazy anyway let them sleep walk into their next blunder of unionist unity and watch their numbers crash further

trailer

Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on May 23, 2023, 12:53:18 AM
Peter shirow on view from stormont showing us all the Unionist view point. Now nationalism goes into a lead the goal posts are changed. Basically there will never be a border poll because nationalism will never reach 50.1 % because of the Alliance party. This is the big problem for the Alliance party because all the cranks will now come up with this thinking. No border poll unless nationalism hits the magic 50.1%. it doesn't matter if they are on 49% and Unionism on 30% it won't be enough as all alliance voters are not nationalist so therefore defacto unionist (this from a supposed academic :o). How very democratic lol. All the cranks on Nolan one moment calling Alliance SF cheerleaders but then in the same sentence saying Alliance only do well in good unionist areas so must be all Unionists ffs. Nolan happy not to challenge any of it, no chance of mentioning the overwhelming majority of alliance transfers to nationalist parties. Peter Shirliow is a major problem because his rubbish polls and surveys he produces seem to carry more clout with the government than actual election results. You couldn't make it up. Nationalism needs to be prepared for all the desperate nonsense that will spouted and used to block Amy movement towards a referendum

The DUP moaning about  the 3 unionist parties causing vote shredding and affecting the results is also bizarre.  Unionism actually did BETTER than Nationalism in the election in terms of seats from votes. None of the pundits though seen to point any of this out. It's crazy anyway let them sleep walk into their next blunder of unionist unity and watch their numbers crash further

The idea of STV is that you can't split the vote, yet everyone between presenters and commentators allowed this nonsense to be spouted unchallenged. Even Carruthers who's the best IV'er by a country mile.
Unionist unity or a single Unionist party is not credible. Firstly there is no home for the gay Unionist with the likes of Poots or Buckley. There is a religious conservative unionism (anti abortion, gay marriage, Sunday working), there is a liberal unionism (pro abortion, pro gay marriage), there is a conservative yet liberal unionism (anti abortion, pro gay marriage). Just on social issues they are so divided in a way that Nats isn't. Even the idea that the DUP and UUP fold to form a new party would be very difficult. Cushy party jobs given up. Some sort of loose, bullshit unionist pact that they abandon when the going gets sticky is the most likely outcome.

samuel maguire

Quote from: DhoireTheas on May 22, 2023, 10:16:54 PM
You would think nurses didn't know that is was a famously underpaid profession when they signed up to be one. They are all the same with their loud mouth personalities when I was in hospital. Actually the thought of having to be around nurses makes me want to live a healthy lifestyle to avoid hospitals.
What a horrible comment. It is not fair to tar them all with the one brush. It is like any profession these days

Nanderson

Surely the only 2 unionist parties that could merge would be the DUP and TUV. If the UUP were to join that would split the parties ideologies with the UUP being more inclusive than the likes of DUP and TUV. This would just move the more moderate and small Unionists over to Alliance and weaken the pro unionism parties even further

armaghniac

Quote from: Nanderson on May 23, 2023, 10:26:14 AM
Surely the only 2 unionist parties that could merge would be the DUP and TUV. If the UUP were to join that would split the parties ideologies with the UUP being more inclusive than the likes of DUP and TUV. This would just move the more moderate and small Unionists over to Alliance and weaken the pro unionism parties even further

Exactly. This is as obvious as the sun in the sky. The sort of extremist TUV/DUP party that Donaldson wants would be unpalatable to a substantial proportion of UU people who would either stay at home or vote for Alliance. Such a party would certainly not attract back those voters who defected to Alliance. 
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B