6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

[seafoid]

This is sad

https://irishtimes.com/politics/2023/05/20/northern-ireland-local-election-results-sinn-fein-dup/

There are a total of 60 seats up for grabs in Belfast, which is the North's largest functioning elected body
in the North (in the absence of Stormont).

[general_lee]

Shinners out cutting grass verges of a Sunday morning that were blocking sight lines at a busy crossroads in Craigavon.

[RedHand88]

Shinners out cutting grass verges of a Sunday morning that were blocking sight lines at a busy crossroads in Craigavon.

On the Sabbath day. Heathens.

[trailer]

An unbelievable day for SF. The squeeze in Mid Ulster didn't materialise apart from McGuigan losing his seat in Clogher but they retained 2 anyway with Gildenernew and McConnell. McElvouge did take a seat for the Ind Republicans. SDLP lost McAleer.
In Cookstown SF had prob 4.5 quotas and only ran 3. They probably left a good few seats behind them.
They have an outright majority on the Fermanagh and Omagh council and I think close to majorities in a few others.

There is no appetite for the SDLP. Some great councillors including a good friend lost their seats. Nats are happy to throw their lot in with SF. The politics probably doesn't come into it. Nor does SF history. Nats have forgiven and moved on. That's democracy. The hope for the SDLP is that SF actually go off and govern North and South and people can judge if they like their decisions or not. Problem could be (in the north anyway) is that SDLP probably won't be around for people to come back to.

With every election more SDLP cands lose their seats. So the pool is ever smaller and calling for Eastwood's head is pointless. Claire Hanna will lose her seat next time as SF won't stand aside (nor should they in my view) and they don't the SDLP to stand aside for JF in North Belfast. Whoever comes in will be pushing water uphill.
Some cands deserve to lose their seats. They put no effort in, but a good few who are visible out on the ground working hard lost their seats as well. So it's hard to know. The membership is definitely depressed.

Unfortunately the DUP will see this as a vindication of their Stormont stance and that means we are no further forward. Chat that the DUP will come back in the Autumn could be misplaced. They'll see no reason unless they can secure a victory on the protocol which is unlikely.

The abortion question is a non-issue in NI. Anotu were well beaten across the North (would they have got 5000 votes in total?) and SF who are pro abortion increased their vote. So that is that settled once and for all.

But congratulations to SF on a brilliant result. That's democracy and the people have spoken.

[Milltown Row2]

Has someone hacked into trailers account?

[JPGJOHNNYG]

Clare Hannah would probably still get enough votes in a Westminster election. She was 16000 ahead so even taking out a big chunk for SF should still be ok. The Alliance candidate Bradshaw ain't great and she would probably be the biggest threat. I can't see DUP improving in that constituency.

I see every excuse under the sun is being used to explain the results. Differential turnout seems to be the latest. It's nonsense this has been coming and coming for a while the greening of the middle ground has kind of hidden the demographic shift over the last 10 yrs. Unionism still can't accept it and are hoping for all the Alliance Unionists and non voting unionists to save the day at a referendum. The big problem being they don't actually exist in any number.

[Snapchap]

One of the stand out statistics from the election: of the 60 councillors elected to Belfast City Council, only 17 are unionist.

The demographic changes are beginning to show more and more with every election that comes along. Those demographic changes are only becoming more pronounced. According to LicidTalk, the only age category that the DUP outpolled SF, was in the over 55 bracket. As Sam McBride put it, "more of the voters who die are unionist, and more of the voters who join the electoral register are nationalist", and demographics would suggest that this is a trend that is only accelerating.
Thirty years ago unionism held 52% of council seats. Today they hold 40% and find themselves in a landscape where at least as many council seats (possibly more if we look into the breakdown of independents) are pro unity than anti-unity. Given the accelerating changes in the demographics, what will these figures look like in another 30 years? Bear in mind too that SF appear to be broadening their appeal beyond the traditional nationalist pool of voters. While half of SFs new seat gains did come from the SDLP, the other half came from all quarters - nine from unionist parties, three from Alliance and Greens.

I wouldn't go call for a border poll to happen tomorrow, but the case for one being held in the next 10-20 years is now absolutely undeniable. The onus is now on the Irish government to finally get off their a*ses and lay some groundwork. The days of FF and FG ministers dismissing any mention of border polls or Irish unity are over. They can't deny the new political reality indefinitely.

[bennydorano]

Current demographics shouldn't even be the biggest factor in calling for a unity referendum, the Current UK / Brexit shitshow should be played for all it is worth.

Also, as I've said umpteen times on here before I'm still not convinced ROI voters would even want or endorse a United Ireland in the privacy of a polling booth.

[An Watcher]

Don't need them all, just a majority

[trailer]

The conditions for a Unity Ref are nowhere near being met.

[imtommygunn]

Current demographics shouldn't even be the biggest factor in calling for a unity referendum, the Current UK / Brexit shitshow should be played for all it is worth.

Also, as I've said umpteen times on here before I'm still not convinced ROI voters would even want or endorse a United Ireland in the privacy of a polling booth.

This. The UK is a basket case. The sooner we get away from it the better. There's the brexit shitshow and I honestly don't think it is widely understood how big a mess the NHS is in. I don't it as recoverable and the delays in diagnosis's, the aftercare for older people etc are probably going to hit us all in years to come.

There's no money for anything they say. Well where did it go? That's uk wide then you have the dup who seem intent on doing nationalists work for them by showing stormont can't work.

[marty34]

Ironic thing is that SF left a few seats behind them by not standing 2 candiates or another candiate in areas.  Plus SF transfers got the SDLP over the line in certain areas.

Funny the unionist parties are complaining about too many unionist parties but on the nationalist side, there's SF, SDLP, Aontú and PBP etc. so just as many on the nationalist side.

Will that be the end of Aontú? Can't see them getting much traction in the south in the next election.  They, like the TUV, seem a one man show i.e. Toibin.

Glad to see Billy Hutchison not making it. Great news.

Unionism vote is getting smaller and smaller in every election. The amount of green in some of the maps re: council elections is unreal. Plus with Belfast now a green city, demographics are moving very quickly.

Love to see Danny Kennedy spouting pure waffle about Newry and Armagh. What a complete clown.

[Snapchap]

The conditions for a Unity Ref are nowhere near being met.

Well no criteria has ever been laid out. The only thing we do know is that the SoS has to have reason to believe that the pro-unity vote would out number the anti-unity vote, and it takes some bit of ostrich manoeuvring to deny the significance but only of last weeks results, but the wider electoral and demographic trends.

50 years ago, nationalism held 18% of council council seats, now it's 40% (and could have been north of that figure, had SF run more candidates). By contrast, it's only 9 years since unionism held 51% of council seats, and today that figure has dropped to 40%. An 11% drop in the Unionist vote in just nine years. Given that demographic trends clearly indicate a string likelihood that the electoral lead nationalism now has over unionism is likely to not only continue, but to widen at an accelerated pace, then what will those %s be in a further 9 years? Then try thinking about how they'll look in 20 years. Claiming we aren't moving significantly closer to a border poll isn't grounded in any sort of solid argument.

[weareros]

The other factor is Alliance voters are transferring Nationalist at far higher levels. In Assembly 50% went Nat, only 10% Unionist. There's some Unionists (while ironically lambasting the Alliance for being SF's little helpers) that still like to think Alliance is a pro-Union/status quo vote. The pols maybe, but not necessarily their voters. So if nationalist votes are exceeding unionist, and more of that middle ground leans nationalist, in addition to the obvious demographic trends, then it stands to reason that a border poll should be called around 2028-2030. The 26 will easily pass, and some legal experts have said a poll is not required in ROI. It certainly is not referred to in GFA, but is referred/alluded to in updated Irish constitution. Should not be required IMO - the spirit of the current constitution is for everyone born on the island to be part of the Irish nation.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

You can't have a ref based on one council election however throw in the census and a couple more elections showing nationalism infront then it's going to be hard to argue against. Fully expect unionism to cling onto the next toilet paper nilt survey as gospel and that everything is fine. Fully expect a Joe blogs character (pushed by SF) to take things through the courts if the SoS starts trying to block a ref with no reason.