Elections North and South

Started by Farrandeelin, April 18, 2019, 04:09:48 PM

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smelmoth

Quote from: Owen Brannigan on May 05, 2019, 09:11:52 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on May 05, 2019, 08:10:41 AM
Quote from: Insane Bolt on May 05, 2019, 07:22:40 AM
No real change overall.....NI politics still green or orange.

But a wee bit less so and the direction of travel is in the right direction.

UUP teetering. Alliance the obvious destination for unionists with a pro remain, generally progressive outlook and or tired of the incompetence and inertia of DUP.

Sdlp giving one last stand but ultimately going to get squeezed between the SF machine and the catholic taliban. When that happens Alliance is the natural destination.

If NI can build a powerful alternative to SF/DUP ineptitude then those 2 parties can be held to account.

The true test for emerging middle will be whether they can:

1. Bring out the lost voters who left SDLP and UUP because of their failure to challenge SF and DUP in being winners but now can see a glimmer of hope for change.

2. Present themselves as a force working together but with own identities. Transfers are vital between like minded groupings.

3. Learn from SF and DUP to persuade moderates to lend them their votes to halt the stagnation caused by DUP and SF.

Can the Greens tap into momentum for environmental change and bring the younger voters to themselves not just in the East?

They will need another election in the next year or so to maintain momentum. Will possibly get it with a general election always a possibility.

The European elections (if they go ahead) will be another test. Unless you are a hardcore leaver it would be brainless to not vote Alliance No1

Rossfan

Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

Owen Brannigan

Quote from: smelmoth on May 05, 2019, 11:48:33 AM
Quote from: Owen Brannigan on May 05, 2019, 09:11:52 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on May 05, 2019, 08:10:41 AM
Quote from: Insane Bolt on May 05, 2019, 07:22:40 AM
No real change overall.....NI politics still green or orange.

But a wee bit less so and the direction of travel is in the right direction.

UUP teetering. Alliance the obvious destination for unionists with a pro remain, generally progressive outlook and or tired of the incompetence and inertia of DUP.

Sdlp giving one last stand but ultimately going to get squeezed between the SF machine and the catholic taliban. When that happens Alliance is the natural destination.

If NI can build a powerful alternative to SF/DUP ineptitude then those 2 parties can be held to account.

The true test for emerging middle will be whether they can:

1. Bring out the lost voters who left SDLP and UUP because of their failure to challenge SF and DUP in being winners but now can see a glimmer of hope for change.

2. Present themselves as a force working together but with own identities. Transfers are vital between like minded groupings.

3. Learn from SF and DUP to persuade moderates to lend them their votes to halt the stagnation caused by DUP and SF.

Can the Greens tap into momentum for environmental change and bring the younger voters to themselves not just in the East?

They will need another election in the next year or so to maintain momentum. Will possibly get it with a general election always a possibility.

The European elections (if they go ahead) will be another test. Unless you are a hardcore leaver it would be brainless to not vote Alliance No1

+1

smelmoth

Quote from: Rossfan on May 05, 2019, 11:50:30 AM
Why so?

Very simple. Look at the candidates. Judge them on ability. If you think Danny Kennedy represents remain or that Eastwood or Anderson is more capable than Long then you are engaged in an act of self delusion

JPGJOHNNYG

Quote from: smelmoth on May 05, 2019, 12:26:40 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on May 05, 2019, 11:50:30 AM
Why so?

Very simple. Look at the candidates. Judge them on ability. If you think Danny Kennedy represents remain or that Eastwood or Anderson is more capable than Long then you are engaged in an act of self delusion

Jeez are you in the Alliance or something? I like Long but she only looks good because most of the rest are so bad. Eastwood is as good and as articulate and Anderson believe it or not is quite well respected in  many other countries maybe when the sound is off and the message is dubbed in another language she is actually ok😀

marty34

Quote from: smelmoth on May 05, 2019, 11:44:44 AM
Quote from: marty34 on May 05, 2019, 10:12:43 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on May 05, 2019, 07:55:36 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 04, 2019, 09:07:48 PM
Quote from: marty34 on May 04, 2019, 06:23:11 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 04, 2019, 05:05:46 PM
Quote from: marty34 on May 04, 2019, 04:49:54 PM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on May 04, 2019, 03:55:08 PM
Quote from: tintin25 on May 04, 2019, 11:48:06 AM
Glad to see Alliance do well. I reckon a sizeable number of Catholics are starting to vote for them too.

It's been known for quite some time more Catholics than protestants vote alliance about 5 years ago a poll had it at 4 out of every 7

The test will be in the Euro elections in a few weeks - do they give their first preference to SDLP or Alliance?

There is a case for tactical voting for Alliance. If the SDLP are eliminated first, then Alliance would get transfers to pass the UU. If Alliance are eliminated first perhaps a third of the transfers might go to the UU and the UU might make it.

Two nationalist candidates getting elected would not really represent things; one unionist, one Alliance and one nationalist would be a fair representation of things.

Without Jim Nicholson this time and the UUP losses, I don't think the electorate will be enticed to vote the UUP.

in the local elections, the UU got more than Alliance or SDLP
A few might choose to vote Alliance for the Euro election, but Alliance are not prominent in agricultural matters.

It isn't all about Agriculture. What does Bomber Anderson know about farming?

More to the point why would anyone vote for Anderson? Can you honestly point to 1 one way in which Anderson could articulate or has articulated the views of the people of NI better than say Naomi Long?

She has been excellent in Europe as a rep.  Articulated well that the north voted to stay in the EU.  You need to take the blinkers off - she has been the only one stating the case to stay in the EU.

How are you defining excellence there?

Is there something in her voting record, speeches to the parliament or influence that she is bringing to bear that you can point to? Or is it just your own blinkered vision?

She is only attempting to pitch the remain side because the other 2 are leavers (you must venerate Sylvia Hermon) but the question is how well does she do it and influence does she have?

You cannot credibly argue that she has the competence or articulacy of Long?? That would be the definition of blinkered

Long's not there so she's no good watching on from sideline - no good saying she'd be more articulate, she'd be more this or that.

Hurlers on the ditch are not much use in Europe.

marty34

Quote from: smelmoth on May 05, 2019, 12:26:40 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on May 05, 2019, 11:50:30 AM
Why so?

Very simple. Look at the candidates. Judge them on ability. If you think Danny Kennedy represents remain or that Eastwood or Anderson is more capable than Long then you are engaged in an act of self delusion

You're getting carried away with Alliance's results yesterday a chara.  Settle!

smelmoth

Quote from: marty34 on May 05, 2019, 03:25:52 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on May 05, 2019, 11:44:44 AM
Quote from: marty34 on May 05, 2019, 10:12:43 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on May 05, 2019, 07:55:36 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 04, 2019, 09:07:48 PM
Quote from: marty34 on May 04, 2019, 06:23:11 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 04, 2019, 05:05:46 PM
Quote from: marty34 on May 04, 2019, 04:49:54 PM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on May 04, 2019, 03:55:08 PM
Quote from: tintin25 on May 04, 2019, 11:48:06 AM
Glad to see Alliance do well. I reckon a sizeable number of Catholics are starting to vote for them too.

It's been known for quite some time more Catholics than protestants vote alliance about 5 years ago a poll had it at 4 out of every 7

The test will be in the Euro elections in a few weeks - do they give their first preference to SDLP or Alliance?

There is a case for tactical voting for Alliance. If the SDLP are eliminated first, then Alliance would get transfers to pass the UU. If Alliance are eliminated first perhaps a third of the transfers might go to the UU and the UU might make it.

Two nationalist candidates getting elected would not really represent things; one unionist, one Alliance and one nationalist would be a fair representation of things.

Without Jim Nicholson this time and the UUP losses, I don't think the electorate will be enticed to vote the UUP.

in the local elections, the UU got more than Alliance or SDLP
A few might choose to vote Alliance for the Euro election, but Alliance are not prominent in agricultural matters.

It isn't all about Agriculture. What does Bomber Anderson know about farming?

More to the point why would anyone vote for Anderson? Can you honestly point to 1 one way in which Anderson could articulate or has articulated the views of the people of NI better than say Naomi Long?

She has been excellent in Europe as a rep.  Articulated well that the north voted to stay in the EU.  You need to take the blinkers off - she has been the only one stating the case to stay in the EU.

How are you defining excellence there?

Is there something in her voting record, speeches to the parliament or influence that she is bringing to bear that you can point to? Or is it just your own blinkered vision?

She is only attempting to pitch the remain side because the other 2 are leavers (you must venerate Sylvia Hermon) but the question is how well does she do it and influence does she have?

You cannot credibly argue that she has the competence or articulacy of Long?? That would be the definition of blinkered

Long's not there so she's no good watching on from sideline - no good saying she'd be more articulate, she'd be more this or that.

Hurlers on the ditch are not much use in Europe.

I assume you yourself worked out the complete stupidity of that line of argument and only posted it as a misguided attempt at humour

smelmoth

Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on May 05, 2019, 12:43:51 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on May 05, 2019, 12:26:40 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on May 05, 2019, 11:50:30 AM
Why so?

Very simple. Look at the candidates. Judge them on ability. If you think Danny Kennedy represents remain or that Eastwood or Anderson is more capable than Long then you are engaged in an act of self delusion

Jeez are you in the Alliance or something? I like Long but she only looks good because most of the rest are so bad. Eastwood is as good and as articulate and Anderson believe it or not is quite well respected in  many other countries maybe when the sound is off and the message is dubbed in another language she is actually ok😀

Voting for one candidate because they look better than the others due to the fact that they are in fact better than the others seems logical enough

What evidence is there that Anderson is respected? My understanding is that the bloc she is attached to don't use her for any key responsibilities. Even on the Irish border issue they give her no role and she has to wait her slot in the speaking rounds

smelmoth

Quote from: marty34 on May 05, 2019, 03:32:22 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on May 05, 2019, 12:26:40 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on May 05, 2019, 11:50:30 AM
Why so?

Very simple. Look at the candidates. Judge them on ability. If you think Danny Kennedy represents remain or that Eastwood or Anderson is more capable than Long then you are engaged in an act of self delusion

You're getting carried away with Alliance's results yesterday a chara.  Settle!

Not getting carried away. There is a long way to go.

But ther is a bit of momentum and a vastly superior candidate. Anderson and Dodds might appear shoe ins but they are exceptionally poor candidates. In no other country or region could they even dream of being elected

armaghniac

Eastwood could do a fine job, but Long is more likely to be elected.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Owen Brannigan

Quote from: armaghniac on May 05, 2019, 05:16:00 PM
Eastwood could do a fine job, but Long is more likely to be elected.

Long will get transfers from many of the other candidates.  Eastwood wouldn't get many from SF and none from unionists. The race will be to be for the third place and then await transfers as the bottom candidates are eliminated.

smelmoth

Quote from: Owen Brannigan on May 05, 2019, 06:17:13 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 05, 2019, 05:16:00 PM
Eastwood could do a fine job, but Long is more likely to be elected.

Long will get transfers from many of the other candidates.  Eastwood wouldn't get many from SF and none from unionists. The race will be to be for the third place and then await transfers as the bottom candidates are eliminated.

I think you are correct. Under previous management UUP offered the hand of friendship to SDLP. Young Colm rejected it. His entitlement to the benefit of the doubt was zeroised at that point. The 3rd seat absolutely needs unionists votes. Eastwood won't get them. Any vote for Colm is a vote for someone 100% guaranteed not to get elected. Fact

RedHand88

My transfer will be going to alliance now I think after the antics of the sdlp ones in ballymena when SFs Patrice hardy was eliminated. Plus I really believe Naomi will outpoll Colm and thus has a better chance of getting the 3rd seat.

Angelo

Stoops little merger with FF doesn't seem to have worked like they would have hoped. They are dead in the water.
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