The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

Started by muppet, September 28, 2008, 11:36:36 PM

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Main Street

Quote from: Rossfan on December 16, 2011, 05:41:32 PM
Quote from: Main Street on December 16, 2011, 05:11:56 PM
The peak of Irish life quality in the South was in the years before we joined the EU in 1973.
Then we had what passes for full employment,  5% unemployed.
3rd level was free and 4 honours in the leaving cert got you a grant.


That will be news to a lot of folk.

3rd level became free in the 1990's as Labour wanted to look after its smoked salmon Mary Robinson type new voters.
AFAIR,  3rd level education in 1972/73,  if not free - at least it was dirt cheap.

Maybe the fees  rose after entry to the EU :)  and rose higher and higher until the fees were scrapped a few decades later

QuoteUnemployment was low because the dole was very low and half the West was still heading for Holyhead.

Is it my new task on this board to correct the flow of nonsense from you :)

Please do some research and base what you write, on your research.

'Over 500,000 people left independent Ireland between 1945 and 1960—stark evidence of the poor state of the Irish economy at this time. The following decade saw reduced emigration, a significant decrease that, together with substantial return migration in the 1960s, contributed to a rise in the population of independent Ireland by 1971—reversing the downward trend since the late 1840s. In the 1970s the numbers immigrating remained, for a sustained period, higher than the numbers leaving. This inflow was due mainly to the return home of emigrants who had left in the 1940s and 1950s'.

muppet

Quote from: Main Street on December 16, 2011, 06:05:34 PM
Maybe the fees  rose after entry to the EU :)  and rose higher and higher until the fees were scrapped a few decades later

If they did it wasn't because of the EU as the UK was free at the time.
MWWSI 2017

muppet

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/12/16/804161/fitch-big-euro-fix-technically-and-politically-beyond-reach/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Fitch: "Following the EU Summit on 9-10 December, Fitch has concluded that a 'comprehensive solution' to the eurozone crisis is technically and politically beyond reach..."
MWWSI 2017

Rossfan

Quote from: Main Street on December 16, 2011, 06:05:34 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on December 16, 2011, 05:41:32 PM
Quote from: Main Street on December 16, 2011, 05:11:56 PM
The peak of Irish life quality in the South was in the years before we joined the EU in 1973.
Then we had what passes for full employment,  5% unemployed.
3rd level was free and 4 honours in the leaving cert got you a grant.


That will be news to a lot of folk.

3rd level became free in the 1990's as Labour wanted to look after its smoked salmon Mary Robinson type new voters.
AFAIR,  3rd level education in 1972/73,  if not free - at least it was dirt cheap.

Maybe the fees  rose after entry to the EU :)  and rose higher and higher until the fees were scrapped a few decades later

QuoteUnemployment was low because the dole was very low and half the West was still heading for Holyhead.

Is it my new task on this board to correct the flow of nonsense from you :)

Please do some research and base what you write, on your research.

'Over 500,000 people left independent Ireland between 1945 and 1960—stark evidence of the poor state of the Irish economy at this time. The following decade saw reduced emigration, a significant decrease that, together with substantial return migration in the 1960s, contributed to a rise in the population of independent Ireland by 1971—reversing the downward trend since the late 1840s. In the 1970s the numbers immigrating remained, for a sustained period, higher than the numbers leaving. This inflow was due mainly to the return home of emigrants who had left in the 1940s and 1950s'.

You stick to your Internet -- I know that every house around where I grew up had people who left for Holyhead all through the 60s and early 70s.

It stopped for a few years mid 70s but back in full flow from 83 on  for 9 or 10 years - including my good self for a short spell.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

muppet

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1216/eurozone.html

Them EU negotiations sure are odd. Last week 26 countries came to an agreement. Today the first draft of the 'agreement' has been completed. Personally I have never agreed anything until I have seen the last draft.

Noonan may have caused the predictable hand-wringing here with his referendum talk, but whoever is writing these drafts will have heard it loud and clear. Hopefully! Because paying over 8% interest rate on the Anglo bailout is scandalous. How the f**k do Fianna Fáil TDs from the last Government even show their faces?
MWWSI 2017

ludermor

Quote from: seafoid on December 02, 2011, 09:53:02 AM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on December 01, 2011, 06:27:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on December 01, 2011, 12:41:17 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on December 01, 2011, 11:10:51 AM
What would ye think of buying gold with any savings you might have? Safe? Crazy? Obviously I'd discuss with a Financial Advisor, but just wondering if anyone else has gone down this way, especially if you have a few bob in a savings account? If the Euro collapses, and we revert to a devalued Punt, I don't want to be left with stuff that can only be used as toilet paper.

How about buying Yen, or Dollars, or even Sterling?

Gold is very volatile at the moment. The Euro probably won't break up. It would destroy the global economy for at least 5 years.
Even the 1% don't want that.

If enough people thought that the Euro was unsafe and pulled their money out of the banks the currency would collapse. The job of the authorities is to make sure this doesn't happen.   It all depends on confidence.

The volatilty of Gold as it stands should not be a major worry IMO. While it is the finite element that it is, it will always retain value (as it has done for thousands of years). Silver should be considered also (precious for use in industry also).

With the central banks around the world now consigned to printing money, debt and fiat currency could well be on an exponential curve (e.g. by the time you know the currency is about to fatally debased, its too late):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WBiTnBwSWc

The above is a fascinating presentation on the economy, energy and environmental challenges of the coming 20 years. Doesn't look good for us.

Fiat currency is backed by nothing and throughout history has been shown to be anything but sacred. Why couldn't the dollar or euro become worthless at some point in the future with our politicians as short-sighted and divided as they are (in europe at least)?

In my opinion, one of the ways to protect yourself in the coming years (if you have savings) would be to secure your energy requirements or lack thereof. Never pay any heed to broad brush verdict on micro renewables for example, they depend entirely on your circumstances.

We have a micro hydro generator installed on a piece of land for example and it is turning out to be a great investment (the house is totally off-grid for several thousand quid of capital and you earn a tariff for everything you generate, moreso if it goes back into the grid)

Putting yourself and your family in the position of being as self-sustainable as is practible in terms of energy and food requirements is not a bad move, sure even if everything turns out grand with the economy you are adding to the value of your land/property.

Invest in self-sustainability if you can or precious metals if you can.

the gold price hit a record in 1980 . When gordon Brown sold the Uk's gold around 10 years ago the price was 30% or so of what it had been in 1980.
It's like any asset. The price you buy in at is crucial.   
http://www.independent.ie/business/stocks-markets/gold-will-keep-falling-to-below-1500-an-ounce-2967360.html    GOLD prices will fall below $1,500 (e1,150) an ounce over the next three months and are unlikely to re-test September's all-time highs until later in 2012 at the earliest, according to a Reuters poll of 20 hedge-fund managers, economists and traders.

The bleak forecast, coming after gold lost 11pc of its value so far this month, is likely to fuel fears that bullion is close to ending its more than decade-long bull run and entering a bear market.

Almost half of respondents predicted bullion would fall to $1,450 an ounce in the first quarter next year, with three seeing prices as low as $1,400 an ounce.


Declan

Until they start rationing booze in this country we'll never raise a whimper

Gene Kerrigan: Austerity doesn't work? No problem...
Destroying Ireland to save the banks, so the banks can save the country isn't working, writes Gene Kerrigan
Sunday December 18 2011
It was a hellish year. Very little to remember fondly. Not a year we need to dwell upon. Yet, with the new year promising to be even more grim, are there lessons we might usefully remember from 2011? And what might those lessons be?

We learned, for instance, that things will be fine if we stay the course. As 2011 began, President McAleese told us she was keeping an eye out for those "green shoots of new beginnings". Later in the year, a young and rested 60, Mary headed off into the sunset, with a pension three times the salary of the average software developer.

The departing Cowen regime whooped that we were "on the road to economic recovery". Ministers of that government then retired in droves, while still relatively young, to spend more time with their vast pensions.

We learned, in short, that those who are loudest in their optimism about the current course of austerity are usually those with well-feathered nests.

We learned conclusively that the Cowen/Lenihan austerity strategy, now being implemented by Kenny/Noonan, doesn't work. This ordains that we have to destroy the country in order to save the banks, so that the banks can save the country. So, under ECB instructions, we've been feeding the bankers tens of billions; and seeking vainly to balance the books by cutting services and asset-stripping the citizens. The insane strategy of deflating an already damaged economy smothered any chance of growth. The economy contracted. Unemployment rose relentlessly.

The argument between austerity (focused on reducing deficits) and stimulus (focused on protecting jobs) has been settled. Over the past four years, austerity has turned a crisis into a catastrophe.

One of the most important lessons we learned in 2011 was this: it doesn't matter that the austerity strategy doesn't work. The Economic War Against Ourselves has the approval of the EU, the ECB, the IMF, Fine Gael, Labour, Fianna Fail and The Irish Times. This makes the strategy unimpeachably respectable and perpetually untouchable, despite its blatant failure.

You may notice that Fine Gael, Labour, Fianna Fail and The Irish Times are precisely those who cheered on the property bubble. You may notice that the EU, the ECB and the IMF benignly observed the insane gambles by German, French, UK and Irish bankers that fuelled that bubble. Among the people who matter, being repeatedly, disastrously wrong has no bad consequences.

People who oppose austerity policies are "politically motivated". The incompetent, overpaid elites who blunder onward are, on the other hand, "realists". With no political thought but peace and goodwill to all.

We learned, from the lips of ministers, that Kenny and Noonan "renegotiated" downward the profiteering interest rate we were charged for EU/IMF loans. This is simply untrue. But they continue to say it, every time they need a morale boost. Which is often.

We learned that Tim Geithner, Barack Obama's top economics guy, vetoed any suggestion that the Irish Government might demand that bank bondholders pay some of their own gambling debts.

Some weeks later, face to face with Obama, Enda Kenny chickened out of raising that matter. Face to face with Geithner, Michael Noonan also chickened out. We learned, in short, that Irish politicians are tough when they're taking money away from blind people.

We learned that politicians can be courageous and move swiftly when something matters to them. When the rules said that Richard Bruton's adviser, Ciaran Conlon, couldn't be paid more than €92,000, Bruton's boss Enda Kenny used his authority to set aside the rules and give his old mate a €35,000 rise. And then Kevin Cardiff, top lad in Finance, was rejected for a job by an EU committee. Kevin is remembered for his role in the bank guarantee, and was in charge of Finance during the €3.6bn accounting error. Politicians swarmed to his aid. Kevin was lifted into his EU job. He will get €260,000 for a job he has described as a "doddle".

We learned that democracy is dispensable. At election time, we're told to be grateful for the sacrifices that gave us the ballot. People living under dictators put their lives on the line to achieve the right to vote -- and we rightly honour them.

We learned after last February's General Election that a mandate for change is without value, when the elite collude. Promises of change are without meaning. The right to vote becomes a child's game, a trivialising simulation of democracy.

When democratically elected politicians in Italy and Greece balked at taking instructions from the ECB they were replaced by people who never received a single vote. Their successors (bankers) were chosen by unelected but extremely powerful functionaries within the ECB (bankers).

We learned that a strike of capital is not worthy of comment by politicians, academics and the austerity pundits. If bin-men withheld their labour because of an insufficient return there would be screams of "holding the country to ransom at a time of national crisis". When capital conducts an investment strike, in demand for higher returns, the otherwise garrulous have nothing to say. They instead obsess ("Crokeparkdeal!Crokeparkdeal!Crokeparkdeal!") about a minor impediment to the asset stripping.

We learned that some people can state something and then state the opposite, and retain credibility with the media. For instance, a year ago Michael Noonan fiercely condemned the FF/Green regime for throwing away tens of billions by generously paying the gambling debts of Irish, German and French bankers.

When he became minister, less than three months later, he seamlessly continued the FF/Green strategy he had denounced. This was not hypocrisy. When Noonan condemned the squandering of billions he was playing the role of a tough, angry opposition politician.

Today, Noonan has another role. He plays a shrewd, worldly-wise Minister for Finance. It's all pose, by a superb actor, but he convinces many now as he convinced many a year ago.

We learned over the past couple of weeks that it is imperative that we put the EU's "fiscal responsibility" measures into our Constitution. Noonan says we must pass such a referendum whatever the wording, or we'll be voting ourselves out of the euro. We will be no longer "at the heart of Europe" (you'll remember how voting Yes to Lisbon 2 ensured our presence within the cockles of Frau Merkel's heart?).

Some people fear that Germany wants to take control of our budgets, perhaps our economy. I don't think that's true. Something far bigger is happening.

For 30 years, a brash form of casino capitalism reigned. The old conservative capitalism (welfare state, effective regulation) had lost the argument (and anything to the left of that was old hat). Casino capitalism (markets rule, deregulate, privatise) consequently ran up trillions in debt and ruined whole countries.

Even after the failures of the past four years, with the euro collapsing, the fiscal hawks remain immovable (deficits matter, not jobs -- banks matter, not people). They want to make any further argument unconstitutional. It's a more sophisticated form of the Tea Party movement in the US, that's smothering economic recovery with "debt ceiling" laws.

Amid the ruins they have made, they hold up constitutional handcuffs and they say, "trust us".

And a happy Christmas to you, too.

muppet

There seem to be rumours of a new currency being formed between the UK and Ireland. The new currency will be basically a merger of Sterling and the old Punt. It will be called the Stunt. There will be 100 pants in a Stunt. Citizens in both countries will be encouraged to put all their pants in the banks to improve stability and to increase the number of stunts available to the banks. Both countries are pinning their hopes on the Stunt and hope that it will restore confidence.

If the Stunt proves a success there are plans to merge both countries. The new country will be called Iruk. Britain will join the new entity on the condition that they do not participate in any way. Ireland will join on the condition that it is frequently praised for being a good Iruker, even if it bankrupts the place.
MWWSI 2017


Lone Shark

Quote from: Declan on December 19, 2011, 04:39:05 PM
Until they start rationing booze in this country we'll never raise a whimper

Gene Kerrigan: Austerity doesn't work? No problem...
Destroying Ireland to save the banks, so the banks can save the country isn't working, writes Gene Kerrigan
Sunday December 18 2011
It was a hellish year. Very little to remember fondly. Not a year we need to dwell upon. Yet, with the new year promising to be even more grim, are there lessons we might usefully remember from 2011? And what might those lessons be?

We learned, for instance, that things will be fine if we stay the course. As 2011 began, President McAleese told us she was keeping an eye out for those "green shoots of new beginnings". Later in the year, a young and rested 60, Mary headed off into the sunset, with a pension three times the salary of the average software developer.

The departing Cowen regime whooped that we were "on the road to economic recovery". Ministers of that government then retired in droves, while still relatively young, to spend more time with their vast pensions.

We learned, in short, that those who are loudest in their optimism about the current course of austerity are usually those with well-feathered nests.

We learned conclusively that the Cowen/Lenihan austerity strategy, now being implemented by Kenny/Noonan, doesn't work. This ordains that we have to destroy the country in order to save the banks, so that the banks can save the country. So, under ECB instructions, we've been feeding the bankers tens of billions; and seeking vainly to balance the books by cutting services and asset-stripping the citizens. The insane strategy of deflating an already damaged economy smothered any chance of growth. The economy contracted. Unemployment rose relentlessly.

The argument between austerity (focused on reducing deficits) and stimulus (focused on protecting jobs) has been settled. Over the past four years, austerity has turned a crisis into a catastrophe.

One of the most important lessons we learned in 2011 was this: it doesn't matter that the austerity strategy doesn't work. The Economic War Against Ourselves has the approval of the EU, the ECB, the IMF, Fine Gael, Labour, Fianna Fail and The Irish Times. This makes the strategy unimpeachably respectable and perpetually untouchable, despite its blatant failure.

You may notice that Fine Gael, Labour, Fianna Fail and The Irish Times are precisely those who cheered on the property bubble. You may notice that the EU, the ECB and the IMF benignly observed the insane gambles by German, French, UK and Irish bankers that fuelled that bubble. Among the people who matter, being repeatedly, disastrously wrong has no bad consequences.

People who oppose austerity policies are "politically motivated". The incompetent, overpaid elites who blunder onward are, on the other hand, "realists". With no political thought but peace and goodwill to all.

We learned, from the lips of ministers, that Kenny and Noonan "renegotiated" downward the profiteering interest rate we were charged for EU/IMF loans. This is simply untrue. But they continue to say it, every time they need a morale boost. Which is often.

We learned that Tim Geithner, Barack Obama's top economics guy, vetoed any suggestion that the Irish Government might demand that bank bondholders pay some of their own gambling debts.

Some weeks later, face to face with Obama, Enda Kenny chickened out of raising that matter. Face to face with Geithner, Michael Noonan also chickened out. We learned, in short, that Irish politicians are tough when they're taking money away from blind people.

We learned that politicians can be courageous and move swiftly when something matters to them. When the rules said that Richard Bruton's adviser, Ciaran Conlon, couldn't be paid more than €92,000, Bruton's boss Enda Kenny used his authority to set aside the rules and give his old mate a €35,000 rise. And then Kevin Cardiff, top lad in Finance, was rejected for a job by an EU committee. Kevin is remembered for his role in the bank guarantee, and was in charge of Finance during the €3.6bn accounting error. Politicians swarmed to his aid. Kevin was lifted into his EU job. He will get €260,000 for a job he has described as a "doddle".

We learned that democracy is dispensable. At election time, we're told to be grateful for the sacrifices that gave us the ballot. People living under dictators put their lives on the line to achieve the right to vote -- and we rightly honour them.

We learned after last February's General Election that a mandate for change is without value, when the elite collude. Promises of change are without meaning. The right to vote becomes a child's game, a trivialising simulation of democracy.

When democratically elected politicians in Italy and Greece balked at taking instructions from the ECB they were replaced by people who never received a single vote. Their successors (bankers) were chosen by unelected but extremely powerful functionaries within the ECB (bankers).

We learned that a strike of capital is not worthy of comment by politicians, academics and the austerity pundits. If bin-men withheld their labour because of an insufficient return there would be screams of "holding the country to ransom at a time of national crisis". When capital conducts an investment strike, in demand for higher returns, the otherwise garrulous have nothing to say. They instead obsess ("Crokeparkdeal!Crokeparkdeal!Crokeparkdeal!") about a minor impediment to the asset stripping.

We learned that some people can state something and then state the opposite, and retain credibility with the media. For instance, a year ago Michael Noonan fiercely condemned the FF/Green regime for throwing away tens of billions by generously paying the gambling debts of Irish, German and French bankers.

When he became minister, less than three months later, he seamlessly continued the FF/Green strategy he had denounced. This was not hypocrisy. When Noonan condemned the squandering of billions he was playing the role of a tough, angry opposition politician.

Today, Noonan has another role. He plays a shrewd, worldly-wise Minister for Finance. It's all pose, by a superb actor, but he convinces many now as he convinced many a year ago.

We learned over the past couple of weeks that it is imperative that we put the EU's "fiscal responsibility" measures into our Constitution. Noonan says we must pass such a referendum whatever the wording, or we'll be voting ourselves out of the euro. We will be no longer "at the heart of Europe" (you'll remember how voting Yes to Lisbon 2 ensured our presence within the cockles of Frau Merkel's heart?).

Some people fear that Germany wants to take control of our budgets, perhaps our economy. I don't think that's true. Something far bigger is happening.

For 30 years, a brash form of casino capitalism reigned. The old conservative capitalism (welfare state, effective regulation) had lost the argument (and anything to the left of that was old hat). Casino capitalism (markets rule, deregulate, privatise) consequently ran up trillions in debt and ruined whole countries.

Even after the failures of the past four years, with the euro collapsing, the fiscal hawks remain immovable (deficits matter, not jobs -- banks matter, not people). They want to make any further argument unconstitutional. It's a more sophisticated form of the Tea Party movement in the US, that's smothering economic recovery with "debt ceiling" laws.

Amid the ruins they have made, they hold up constitutional handcuffs and they say, "trust us".

And a happy Christmas to you, too.


While I appreciate that Kerrigan may think he's standing up for the little guy here, this is muck of the highest order. He's right in that the existing capitalist structure failed, mainly because we did what we always do - we applied it half the time. You can have free, unfettered capitalism, as long as you allow big business to fail. Just as I would say to politicians, there is nothing at all wrong with stimulating a recessionary economy by practicing counter-cyclical fiscal policy, however you can't just pick and choose that approach when you're in a recession. You also need to practice it during the boom, and nobody wanted to hear about 20m budget surpluses in the boom. The ridiculous thing is that nobody would want to hear of it if we do reach another one either.


As a self employed individual who is working for a lot less money than I did in 2008, can I simply decide that "austerity doesn't work?". Of course not. I can spend all my money by August if I want, but then winter will come in and I'm going to need money for light, heat, food, electricity, you know, living. At that point, when I'm going to other people looking for money just to live, then they're going to want to know that I can pay it back. And telling them that I'm not interested in austerity and that I plan to be broke by August again next year hardly inspires that faith.

Saving the banks in the fashion that we did was stupid. However it's done now, and while we should be putting a lot more effort into making sure that the various culprits hang from tall trees.

If you want to suggest that austerity doesn't work, then fine. But this is the Troika's way, and if you want to tell them that you're going to keep living the high life, then you sure as hell better have a plan B. You'll forgive me for be somewhat skeptical about the existence of such a plan in Mr Kerrigan's locker. 

muppet

QuoteYou can have free, unfettered capitalism, as long as you allow big business to fail.

This is exactly where it went wrong. We took on private bank debts instead of allowing them to fail, or at least some of it to fail. Imagine if Lenihan had said to jobholders that night 'you get 60c in the €, guaranteed, as long as you sign a full & final settlement within 5 days, anyone who doesn't gets nothing'.
MWWSI 2017

lawnseed

Quote from: muppet on December 20, 2011, 07:05:07 PM
There seem to be rumours of a new currency being formed between the UK and Ireland. The new currency will be basically a merger of Sterling and the old Punt. It will be called the Stunt. There will be 100 pants in a Stunt. Citizens in both countries will be encouraged to put all their pants in the banks to improve stability and to increase the number of stunts available to the banks. Both countries are pinning their hopes on the Stunt and hope that it will restore confidence.

If the Stunt proves a success there are plans to merge both countries. The new country will be called Iruk. Britain will join the new entity on the condition that they do not participate in any way. Ireland will join on the condition that it is frequently praised for being a good Iruker, even if it bankrupts the place.
:D
A coward dies a thousand deaths a soldier only dies once

thejuice

well some good news that our exports had record highs this year. Nice bit of news among all the bad.
It won't be the next manager but the one after that Meath will become competitive again - MO'D 2016

saffron sam2

Quote from: thejuice on December 21, 2011, 02:10:22 PM
well some good news that our exports had record highs this year. Nice bit of news among all the bad.

Yes, but most of those exports left because they couldn't get a job at home.
the breathing of the vanished lies in acres round my feet

muppet

Is it any wonder the banks are screwed:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0104/ecb-business.html

Banks' deposits with the European Central Bank have hit a new record high, data showed today, suggesting that lenders remain reluctant to lend to each other amid ongoing market tension.
Banks put €453.18 billion on deposit at the ECB for 24 hours yesterday, breaking a previous record set last week for the facility of €452.03 billion, the central bank said.
Rising levels of deposits at the ECB are seen as a sign of market tension since the money deposited earns an interest rate of 0.25%, much less than the rate available on the interbank market. Heavy use of the facility suggests banks favour parking the money at low interest with the ECB rather than lending it to each other.
Analysts said the new record was due to banks opting to hoard their excess funds at the ECB after borrowing under its new three-year lending facility.
The ECB agreed last month to loan a record €489.2 billion to 532 banks in a three-year refinancing operation in a bid to avert a possible credit crunch.


This money is put on deposit for an annualized rate of 0.25%.

But a significant number of banks are borrowing from the ECB under the new 3 year lending programme at 1.75%.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that borrowing (in desperation) at 1.75% and making 0.25% won't last long.
MWWSI 2017