The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[NetNitrate]

The smartest thing the Irish government could do now is promise a referendum and tell our masters in Europe, look this feckin thing will never pass unless ye write off our debts.

An even smarter thing might be to say to the masters, look a referendum is not necessary and will never happen, we won't allow it, carry on girls and lads with the new treaty and then at the last minute say, oh feck the bleddy AG says a referendum is now necessary. Angela, it will never pass in a million years unless of course ye write off our debts, never bring up our corporatation tax again, and given billions to jumpstart the economy and finish a few of those auld roads going nowhere.

[Evil Genius]

The smartest thing the Irish government could do now is promise a referendum and tell our masters in Europe, look this feckin thing will never pass unless ye write off our debts.

An even smarter thing might be to say to the masters, look a referendum is not necessary and will never happen, we won't allow it, carry on girls and lads with the new treaty and then at the last minute say, oh feck the bleddy AG says a referendum is now necessary. Angela, it will never pass in a million years unless of course ye write off our debts, never bring up our corporatation tax again, and given billions to jumpstart the economy and finish a few of those auld roads going nowhere.

It does not lie within the gift of the Government to promise/deny a Referendum - assuming the proposed Treaty turns out something like it promises to be, a Referendum will be a constitutional imperative.

In which case, a "No" vote would only complicate the Merkozy Plan, not scupper it. This is because France and Germany know they can always kick you (ROI) out of the EU if you prove more trouble than you're worth - and that will hurt you a great deal more than them.

In the end, it's like a big card game, with all the picture cards being held by the French and Germans. Worse, those two are passing signals beneath the table between themselves.

Meanwhile, you have a poor, though not quite hopeless, hand. Therefore if you start trying to lead the play (make excessive demands), then F & G will come down hard, since that is their  (self-appointed) role.

Far better for you to go on being a Good Little European, not creating any fuss whilst they control the game, in the hope that they'll let you pick up a trick or two (Corporation Tax?) when the last few cards are played.

Which means that  if/when* it becomes your turn to play your card (i.e. hold a Referendum), it had better be the right one.


* - Unless some other player plays their "No" card first.

[AZOffaly]

The smartest thing the Irish government could do now is promise a referendum and tell our masters in Europe, look this feckin thing will never pass unless ye write off our debts.

An even smarter thing might be to say to the masters, look a referendum is not necessary and will never happen, we won't allow it, carry on girls and lads with the new treaty and then at the last minute say, oh feck the bleddy AG says a referendum is now necessary. Angela, it will never pass in a million years unless of course ye write off our debts, never bring up our corporatation tax again, and given billions to jumpstart the economy and finish a few of those auld roads going nowhere.

It does not lie within the gift of the Government to promise/deny a Referendum - assuming the proposed Treaty turns out something like it promises to be, a Referendum will be a constitutional imperative.

In which case, a "No" vote would only complicate the Merkozy Plan, not scupper it. This is because France and Germany know they can always kick ROI out of the EU if you (ROI) prove more trouble than you're worth and that will hurt you a great deal more than them.

In the end, it's like a big card game, with all the picture cards being held by the French and Germans. Worse, those two are passing signals beneath the table between themselves.

Meanwhile, you have a poor, though not quite hopeless, hand. Therefore if you start trying to lead the play (make excessive demands), then F & G will come down hard, since that is their  (self-appointed) role.

Far better for you to go on being a Good Little European, not creating any fuss whilst they control the game, in the hope that they'll let you pick up a trick or two (Corporation Tax?) when the last few cards are played.

How can anyone be 'kicked out' of the EU? I thought that was labelled as scare mongering.

Edit: This is about Greece, but I'm sure it applies to everyone.


From 'Foreign Policy' Magazine

But can Europe actually kick Greece out?


In a word, no. EU bylaws provide no mechanism for expelling a member state. Indeed, the EU's laws in spirit are integrative and unifying, "conciliatory" rather than "punitive." Therefore, in letter, they provide no option for kicking a country out, no matter how much other member countries might want to. Even if Greece invaded France -- and it would take as much for Brussels to contemplate expulsion -- the European Commission, a body of ministers that initiates EU laws, would have to craft new legislation to do it.

[Evil Genius]

The smartest thing the Irish government could do now is promise a referendum and tell our masters in Europe, look this feckin thing will never pass unless ye write off our debts.

An even smarter thing might be to say to the masters, look a referendum is not necessary and will never happen, we won't allow it, carry on girls and lads with the new treaty and then at the last minute say, oh feck the bleddy AG says a referendum is now necessary. Angela, it will never pass in a million years unless of course ye write off our debts, never bring up our corporatation tax again, and given billions to jumpstart the economy and finish a few of those auld roads going nowhere.

It does not lie within the gift of the Government to promise/deny a Referendum - assuming the proposed Treaty turns out something like it promises to be, a Referendum will be a constitutional imperative.

In which case, a "No" vote would only complicate the Merkozy Plan, not scupper it. This is because France and Germany know they can always kick ROI out of the EU if you (ROI) prove more trouble than you're worth and that will hurt you a great deal more than them.

In the end, it's like a big card game, with all the picture cards being held by the French and Germans. Worse, those two are passing signals beneath the table between themselves.

Meanwhile, you have a poor, though not quite hopeless, hand. Therefore if you start trying to lead the play (make excessive demands), then F & G will come down hard, since that is their  (self-appointed) role.

Far better for you to go on being a Good Little European, not creating any fuss whilst they control the game, in the hope that they'll let you pick up a trick or two (Corporation Tax?) when the last few cards are played.

How can anyone be 'kicked out' of the EU? I thought that was labelled as scare mongering.

"Anyone" cannot be kicked out - at least not if you're France, Germany, Netherlands etc.

But I have no doubt that several of the smaller, more indebted, members could, should they start kicking up too much of a fuss. That was the lesson Greece had to learn when Papandreou started muttering about a Referendum, and explains why the Greek people accepted his ousting meekly enough i.e. they knew what would follow next, if they carried on causing trouble

And whilst ROI's stock within the EU is presently quite good, that is only because they continue to take their medicine quietly, and without fuss.

This is not like the Cold War, where each side knew that if he pressed the Red Button, the other could respond in kind. France and Germany know that the only nuclear missiles in the EU are pointing outwards  from their borders...

[Main Street]

"Anyone" cannot be kicked out - at least not if you're France, Germany, Netherlands etc.

But I have no doubt that several of the smaller, more indebted, members could, should they start kicking up too much of a fuss. That was the lesson Greece had to learn when Papandreou started muttering about a Referendum, and explains why the Greek people accepted his ousting meekly enough i.e. they knew what would follow next, if they carried on causing trouble

Your analysis is simplistic. No country can be kicked out of the EU, but a country can have certain rights suspended.

[Evil Genius]

Edit: This is about Greece, but I'm sure it applies to everyone.


From 'Foreign Policy' Magazine

But can Europe actually kick Greece out?


In a word, no. EU bylaws provide no mechanism for expelling a member state. Indeed, the EU's laws in spirit are integrative and unifying, "conciliatory" rather than "punitive." Therefore, in letter, they provide no option for kicking a country out, no matter how much other member countries might want to. Even if Greece invaded France -- and it would take as much for Brussels to contemplate expulsion -- the European Commission, a body of ministers that initiates EU laws, would have to craft new legislation to do it.

Just noticed your Edit.

Just because EU bylaws presently provide no mechanism, that does not mean such a mechansim could not be devised.

As for the "spirit" of the EU's laws, believe me, when the new 26 Member Treaty gets passed in the next few months, it will contain a whole lot of punitive clauses etc which are anything but in the "EU Spirit", as originally envisaged.

Now I don't think it will actually come to expulsion, since the likely candidates know that they simply cannot afford to push the French and Germans too far.

But in any case, the leading nations know they could always do what eg the leading English football clubs did 20-odd years ago when they constantly found themselves outvoted and frustrated by the smaller, more numerous Football League clubs: leave the EU and form their own "European Premier Union"... 

[Evil Genius]

"Anyone" cannot be kicked out - at least not if you're France, Germany, Netherlands etc.

But I have no doubt that several of the smaller, more indebted, members could, should they start kicking up too much of a fuss. That was the lesson Greece had to learn when Papandreou started muttering about a Referendum, and explains why the Greek people accepted his ousting meekly enough i.e. they knew what would follow next, if they carried on causing trouble

Your analysis is simplistic. No country can be kicked out of the EU, but a country can have certain rights suspended.

And yours is naive.

Believe me, the Germans (esp) and French are in no mood for p1ssing about any longer - they can't afford to.

When the new 26 member Treaty is agreed, it will have such punitive clauses inserted, that whether a recalcitrant member is Expelled, or Resigns, or is slowly Squeezed to Death, the net outcome will be the same - as eg Silvio Berlusconi could testify! 

[thejuice]

An analogy of it seems to me that there are 26 people sitting in a house thats burning down. Among them is a man and a woman with guns who will shoot the first person to make a run for the door. The other 24 are all looking around at each other wondering who is feeling the heat the most, who is going to make a run for it. Because only the first one to run gets shot but no-one wants to be the first, but if someone doesn't run soon we're all going to get burnt alive, even Mr Camerons house next door will not escape the flames as his place is only semi-detached.

[Main Street]

"Anyone" cannot be kicked out - at least not if you're France, Germany, Netherlands etc.

But I have no doubt that several of the smaller, more indebted, members could, should they start kicking up too much of a fuss. That was the lesson Greece had to learn when Papandreou started muttering about a Referendum, and explains why the Greek people accepted his ousting meekly enough i.e. they knew what would follow next, if they carried on causing trouble

Your analysis is simplistic. No country can be kicked out of the EU, but a country can have certain rights suspended.

And yours is naive.

Believe me, the Germans (esp) and French are in no mood for p1ssing about any longer - they can't afford to.

When the new 26 member Treaty is agreed, it will have such punitive clauses inserted, that whether a recalcitrant member is Expelled, or Resigns, or is slowly Squeezed to Death, the net outcome will be the same - as eg Silvio Berlusconi could testify! 

I would rather trust in rationality than believe your surmises and beliefs


Both France and Germany government want their respective country's private bank debts paid, otherwise  they have already exposed their own citizens to be the lender of last resort in the event of a default. Sad their citizens don't even understand this, they think they are bailing out the the straggler rogue countries.

[Rossfan]

"Anyone" cannot be kicked out - at least not if you're France, Germany, Netherlands etc.

But I have no doubt that several of the smaller, more indebted, members could, should they start kicking up too much of a fuss. That was the lesson Greece had to learn when Papandreou started muttering about a Referendum, and explains why the Greek people accepted his ousting meekly enough i.e. they knew what would follow next, if they carried on causing trouble

Your analysis is simplistic. No country can be kicked out of the EU, but a country can have certain rights suspended.

And yours is naive.

Believe me, the Germans (esp) and French are in no mood for p1ssing about any longer - they can't afford to.

When the new 26 member Treaty is agreed, it will have such punitive clauses inserted, that whether a recalcitrant member is Expelled, or Resigns, or is slowly Squeezed to Death, the net outcome will be the same - as eg Silvio Berlusconi could testify! 

I would rather trust in rationality than believe your surmises and beliefs


Both France and Germany government want their respective country's private bank debts paid, otherwise  they have already exposed their own citizens to be the lender of last resort in the event of a default. Sad their citizens don't even understand this, they think they are bailing out the the straggler rogue countries.

Luckily they have you around to put them straight 

[Rossfan]

Not when the alternative is spelled out for the voters.
Only 2 ways we'll be leaving the €
1 - it's  disbanded by agreement by the 17
2- the Germans/French fcuk us out for not paying their banks back what Quinn/Fingleton/Fitzpatrick and the other cnuts owe them.
Either of those will bring us back to the 1950s or the 1840s and no amount of tough talk from Internet warriors will change that.

[thejuice]

Yes or No, we will be back there again anyway.

[Declan]

So hows that austerity working out?

Ireland's economy contracted by 1.9pc in the third quarter, far worse than expected, as global economic turmoil dented export growth, raising the stakes for its fiscal and debt targets under an EU-IMF bailout.
Reuters1:30PM GMT 16 Dec 2011
Ireland was the worst performing economy in the eurozone in the third quarter apart from Greece, which no longer publishes seasonally adjusted figures, marking a stunning reversal of fortune from the second quarter, when it was the second-best in class after Estonia, official data on Friday showed.
Ireland's quarterly GDP data are notoriously volatile due to the inclusion of the earnings of Irish-based multinationals, and analysts said the country should achieve full-year GDP growth this year, the first since 2007, but below the 1pc forecast by the government.
"It [GDP] is probably below the 1pc this year," said Austin Hughes, chief economist at KBC Bank. "In terms of next year it just emphasises the difficulty we have."
The contraction in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on a seasonally adjusted basis was far worse than forecasts of a 0.5pc fall by seven economists polled by Reuters.
Held up as a role model for other indebted eurozone nations, deteriorating prospects for Irish growth threaten to undermine its efforts to become the first country to emerge from an EU-IMF bailout in 2013.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel had recently praised Ireland as a "superb example" of how a country can work its way out of a debt crisis, as Dublin implements spending cuts and tax rises under its bailout programme.
"Ireland's third-quarter GDP figures rather spoil its emerging image as a 'poster boy' for other debt-laden peripheral euro-zone economies," said Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at the Capital Economics consultancy.
"Of course, it would be wrong to read too much into one quarter's figures. The Irish data are notoriously volatile and the third-quarter's drop in GDP reverses little more than half of the growth seen in in the first half.
"Nonetheless, the figures still put something of a dent in hopes that Ireland was starting to reap the rewards of its economic reforms and austerity measures. With borrowing costs way higher than those of Italy, Ireland's future prospects within the single currency are far from secure."
Ireland's international lenders have warned that growth could deteriorate in the months ahead if Ireland's main trading partners slide into recession.
Gross National Product (GNP) - seen by some economists as a more accurate indicator of the state of the economy because it strips out the earnings of Irish-based multinationals - was down 2.2pc in July to September, disappointing expectations for a flat performance.
The data show exports are struggling to compensate for a domestic economy still stuck in the doldrums due to an unprecedented housing crash and prolonged austerity measures, including €3.8bn of fiscal adjustment in its budget earlier this month.
Ireland's current account surplus came in at €850m compared with a surplus of €1.18bn in the same period last year.
Second quarter GDP growth was revised to 1.4pc from 1.6pc previously.
Ireland this month cut its GDP growth forecast for 2012 to 1.3pc from 1.6pc, the second downgrade in a month, in line with 11 economists polled by Reuters at the start of the month

[Main Street]

The peak of Irish life quality in the South was in the years before we joined the EU in 1973.
Then we had what passes for full employment,  5% unemployed.
Because we didn't buy stuff that wasn't yet invented, we didn't need money.
A years salary could get you a basic place to live.
The VW Beetle could go around the clock a few times, you only had to put in petrol and service it.
Hospital wards had plenty of vacant beds  - maybe sick people died faster.
LPs
3rd level was free and 4 honours in the leaving cert got you a grant.


The economy only really boomed when free market regulations were lifted on the finance sector in the late 1990's, now look what that has turned into.

[Rossfan]

The peak of Irish life quality in the South was in the years before we joined the EU in 1973.
Then we had what passes for full employment,  5% unemployed.
3rd level was free and 4 honours in the leaving cert got you a grant.

That will be news to a lot of folk.
Unemployment was low because the dole was very low and half the West was still heading for Holyhead.
3rd level became free in the 1990's as Labour wanted to look after its smoked salmon Mary Robinson type new voters.